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The Washington Post鈥檚聽Chris Cillizza notes that election projections are聽

All three major election forecasting models saw an uptick in the likelihood of Republicans winning the six seats they need to retake the Senate majority over the past week, movement largely due to the party鈥檚 strengthened chances in Alaska, Colorado and Iowa.

The most bullish model for Republicans is聽, which, as of Monday morning, gives the GOP a 76 percent chance of winning the majority. Leo,聽, pegs it at 67 percent while聽聽shows Republicans with a 60 percent probability. A week ago,聽.

All three models give Republicans very strong odds of winning the open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia as well as beating Sens. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.). That would net Republicans five seats, one short of the number they need for the majority.

Of the rest of the competitive seats,聽Alaska is the biggest mover in all three models from a week ago. At that time, the models disagreed 鈥� Election Lab (81 percent chance) and Leo (62 percent) gave Democrats the edge while FiveThirtyEight had Republicans at a 56 percent probability of winning. Today all three models align; Leo gives former state attorney general Dan Sullivan (R) a 72 percent chance of winning while Election Lab puts it at 71 percent and FiveThirty Eight at 68 percent. 聽A聽听(顿).

In addition to Alaska and Louisiana, Republicans have also been performing well in polling in Colorado lately, where Congressman Cory Gardner appears to have pulled ahead of Sen. Mark Udall (D) and how leads by聽聽There鈥檚 also good news for Republicans right now in Iowa, where Joni Ernst has posted strong leads in highly respected polls from 听补苍诲听聽and now has just over a two point lead in the polling average. Add these two states in to the list of states where Republicans are already performing well, and you will find yourself with a very red map. At this moment, in fact,聽聽due to how close the candidates are in the polling average, it鈥檚 the Republican candidate that has the lead. When you give the toss-ups to the candidate in the lead, that leaves us with a Republican pickup of seven seats and聽聽who still isn鈥檛 saying whom he would caucus with if he won in November. Obviously, this projection also assumes that the GOP will hold on to the Senate seats in聽听补苍诲听; however, given current polling trends it looks like this is exactly what will happen.聽If this trend continues, then Republicans wouldn鈥檛 need to worry about Kansas, because they would still have a majority even if Sen. Pat Roberts loses. V, pointing out that all of the major forecasters now give the edge to the GOP,聽聽who has been alone among forecasters this year in predicting that the Democrats would hold on to the Senate.

Based on these numbers, at least, it looks like voters might be starting to finalize their decisions and turn toward the GOP. It鈥檚 worth keeping in mind, though, that we are still at that point in the race where things could still be very much in flux, which is why the phrase 鈥渋f this trend continues鈥� is so important. It was just two weeks ago, after all, that the polls seemed to be indicating that聽聽thanks to signs of strength among Democratic candidates in North Carolina, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Colorado. There have really only been a handful of truly reliable polls released since then, and while they do seem to show things tipping in the GOP鈥檚 direction, it鈥檚 clearly far too early for either Republicans to start celebrating or Democrats to start panicking. On the other hand, it鈥檚 worth nothing that聽聽has also been聽,聽and it鈥檚 possible that we鈥檙e starting to see those national numbers filter down to the state races.

In either case, given this volatility, it鈥檚 far too early to start making ground pronouncements about what is going to happen in November. If the polling models are still showing the same thing a week or two from now, of course, it would be a different story. Additionally,聽聽says that while it鈥檚 too early for Democrats to panic, it may be soon depending on how the polls keep going:

They should keep a close eye on North Carolina and Kansas. These states have been moving toward Democrats in our forecast, helping them offset Republican gains elsewhere.

But these are also races in which the Democrat is doing better than the. The Democratic incumbent in North Carolina, Kay Hagan, is pretty clearly ahead in the polls today (including in a聽聽that was released on Sunday). However, two other states with vulnerable Democratic incumbents, Colorado and Alaska, have shifted toward Republicans. Perhaps if the Republican challenger Thom Tillis聽聽in the Tar Heel State, the polls will show a more even race there as well.

And the Kansas race is still in its formative stages. No one has yet polled the race after the Democratic candidate, Chad Taylor, was聽聽on Sept. 18. Since then,聽聽after nearly a month in which Orman聽聽over Roberts. In about 7 percent of our forecast model鈥檚 simulations, Democrats held the Senate solely because they won Kansas and Orman elected to caucus with them; without it, Republicans would already be 2-to-1 favorites to take the Senate.

Democrats should also monitor the polls in Louisiana, Arkansas and Alaska. As I mentioned, if these go from being probable GOP pickups to near-certain ones, it will make a lot of difference in the model.

So, yes, the trends are most definitely moving in the GOP鈥檚 direction and there鈥檚 little reason to think that the political climate will improve for Democrats any time soon, but given the fact that we鈥檙e still looking at a battle for the Senate that could tip one way or the other based just on what happens in one or two states, and that聽it鈥檚 still far too early to make definitive predictions. That being said, were I a Democrat, I would be starting to get worried.

Doug Mataconis appears on the Outside the Beltway blog at http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/.