Is a serious independent candidate poised to jump into the 2016 race?
| Washington
Is a mystery spoiler candidate really about to jump into the presidential race?
GOP pundit and Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol would like us to think so. Or he鈥檇 like Donald Trump to think so, at least. On Sunday Mr. Kristol : 鈥淛ust a heads up over this holiday weekend; There will be an independent candidate, an impressive one, with a strong team and a real chance.鈥�
Kristol has been a rhetorical leader of the #NeverTrump movement from its inception. For months he鈥檚 been actively recruiting potential third party or independent conservative candidates in hopes of draining off enough votes to ensure Trump doesn鈥檛 win the White House.
Trump himself responded to Kristol鈥檚 latest prediction as you might expect. In his own tweetstorm he attacked Kristol as a lightweight and a 鈥渄ummy.鈥�
鈥淏ill Kristol has been wrong for 2 yrs 鈥� an embarrassed loser, but if the GOP can鈥檛 control their own, then they are not a party. Be tough, R鈥檚!鈥� Trump .
Should we take this prediction of an imminent right-leaning challenger to Trump seriously? Or should we take it with multiple grains of salt?
We鈥檇 lean to the latter interpretation. But let鈥檚 look at the modalities, as my Soviet diplomat acquaintances used to say.
It鈥檚 not impossible that a new entrant could shake up 2016. Kristol and fellow GOP operatives have been talking to, or about, everyone from Mitt Romney to Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska and even former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. They clearly want a big name to enter the presidential contest. In their view that could help protect the Republican brand against what they feel is the dangerously unconservative Trump.
It鈥檚 unlikely Kristol is simply talking about rallying GOP support for likely Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson. He referred to an 鈥渋ndependent鈥� candidate, not a 鈥渢hird party鈥� hopeful. And if he meant Johnson, why not just say so? Johnson鈥檚 already in the field.
The problem with an independent candidacy is that it鈥檚 getting late early out there. Filing deadlines to appear on the general election ballot are fast approaching in many states, points out Larry O鈥機onnor at the right-leaning Hot Air. It takes money and organization to meet those requirements. It鈥檚 already too late to get on the ballot in Texas.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 Kristol鈥檚 guy going to do in November, run ads teaching voters how to write-in their name?鈥� 翱鈥机辞苍苍辞谤.
Plus, it鈥檚 not as if big names are jumping to lead this rag tag army. Former Governor Romney, the Republican nominee in 2012, has said 鈥渘o,鈥� for instance.
It鈥檚 more likely Kristol is just trolling Trump with this. Trump seldom misses an opportunity to respond to a slight, and he didn鈥檛 here. And when he does that, who knows what he鈥檒l say? At the least Trump鈥檚 bellicosity will remind House Speaker Paul Ryan of why he has yet to endorse Trump鈥檚 candidacy. This could all be part of an ad-hoc plan to distract the billionaire reality show star and get him off-message as much as possible.
Or Kristol, by saying he鈥檚 got a Paladin, is trying to make one appear. Keep hope alive! Maybe Romney will reconsider. It鈥檚 true that filing deadlines are approaching, but remember the point isn鈥檛 to actually win the White House. It鈥檚 to win enough votes in key states to make sure Trump will lose. That wouldn鈥檛 take much 鈥� a bit in Florida here, a pinch in Ohio there. In what could be a close matchup between Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, that鈥檚 all it would take.
