海角大神

Danny Forsyth, who's selling a $750 dune buggy at a flea market on Saturday, takes a moment to savor his role in one of the greatest political upsets in United States history: the bucking of the GOP establishment in Washington via the looming presidential nomination of an unapologetic Queens billionaire.

Mr. Forsyth is one of at least 20-million-and-counting party-crashers 鈥� many who never or rarely vote 鈥� who made Donald Trump, a real estate mogul and former reality TV star, the presumptive GOP nominee this week.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a movement alright,鈥� says Forsyth of Rockmart, Ga. 鈥淚t鈥檚 called a groundswell of dissatisfaction.鈥�

That dissatisfaction fueled a stunning coup within the Republican Party, yanking power away from Washington king-makers and handing it to a trash-talking New York moderate and 鈥淎merica first鈥� dealmaker who has never held public office.

Believing Trump to be a disastrous and losing choice, some party leaders have already begun peering at the 2020 presidential election. But many political scientists are now reexamining their assumptions about a Trump candidacy.聽

鈥淭his is a movement that has gone unnoticed and underneath the radar 鈥� and it has committed a hostile takeover of a major political party,鈥� says Jacob Neiheisel, a political scientist at the State University of New York in Buffalo. 鈥淲hat we don鈥檛 know yet is if this is as far as this movement can get or whether they constitute some kind of silent majority, as they may want to claim.鈥�

Trump has touched something deep among those, like Forsyth, who feel ideology 鈥� both conservative and liberal 鈥� has trumped the American ideal 鈥渙f being the best and the baddest.鈥�

Now, he says, 鈥渨e have to pivot, before it鈥檚 too late.鈥�

To be sure, Polk County, Ga., is one of the most pro-Trump corners of the country. While the Manhattan mogul polled at about 40 percent across Georgia in the March primary, he took a majority of GOP votes here on the Alabama border.

The county's median household income is about $10,000 below the national average. Racially, it looks much like the American average: A little over 70 percent white, 13 percent African-American and 11 percent Hispanic. It's a county of rolling hills, large manicured lawns in front of set-back ranches, and a few remaining manufacturing industries, including a large concrete plant.聽The town of Aragon is named after local deposits of aragonite, which is used as a soil conditioner.

Finding a Trump voter here is as easy as saying, "Hi."

鈥� 聽鈥� 聽鈥�

Mr. Grogan, a retired ex-Marine and Zac Brown look-alike who 鈥渄oes God鈥檚 work by slinging barbecue,鈥� is set up at the Aragon flea market on a cool May morning. He says Trump is far from an ideal candidate. But for him, and many others, he鈥檚 the one who has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the November election.

鈥淲e need a leader, not an ideologue,鈥� he says. Support for Trump, he says, 鈥渋s a testament to how much change the people really want.鈥�

Adds Wayne Bailey, another Polk County resident and Trump supporter: 鈥淗e鈥檚 not just going to sit around and see what鈥檚 going to happen. He鈥檚 not going to tell people just what they want to hear.鈥�

From the vantage point of people here on the exurban fringe of Atlanta, the handwringing among the GOP party elites is both humorous and disconcerting. Attempts by party chieftains to hobble or even bypass Trump鈥檚 candidacy seem particularly galling 鈥� emblematic, to some here, of a 鈥渨e know best鈥� mindset in Washington that has contributed to down-pressure on wages, shaky national security, and trade imbalances.

Brimming with 鈥渟atisfaction鈥� over Trump鈥檚 victory, Trump voter Ronnie Stansbury takes umbrage that voters like him somehow ruined the election for the GOP. But such complaints also highlight what he sees as a central point: That political leaders only heed voters when they need them, and dismiss them as 鈥渞ubes鈥� when they don鈥檛.

鈥淗ostile takeover?鈥� says Mr. Stansbury, a local mortuary worker. 鈥淚 thought this was a democracy. We lecture other countries about democracy and fair elections, and here we are in the US, and they鈥檙e the ones trying to override what the people want.鈥�

Certainly, Trump鈥檚 strategy of harnessing anger, fear, and resentment among primary voters by lashing out at Muslims and illegal immigrants may yet backfire in a general election. In other words, for Trump鈥檚 movement to expand his appeal, political history suggests that he has to build a more realistic and cogent agenda that goes beyond one-liners and shout-outs at raucous rallies.

鈥淚t鈥檚 an impressive primary victory under very specialized conditions, and it does show that there鈥檚 a different way to win,鈥� says Peter Feaver, a former national security adviser to President George W. Bush and now a political scientist at Duke University in Durham, N.C. 鈥淏ut you can鈥檛 say that he鈥檚 won the argument that his policy prescriptions are wiser and that his platform makes more sense in an empirical sense. What [Trump] has done is persuaded a plurality of primary voters 鈥� in the latest states, a majority 鈥� to vote for him. That鈥檚 not nothing, but it doesn鈥檛 mean that the rest of his platform has been vindicated.鈥�

鈥� 聽鈥� 聽鈥�

What may be surprising to some, however, is that Trump, to many red-state conservatives, represents a more moderate and pro-Main Street outlook.

鈥淚n some ways, Trump is a liberalizer, which I think we need,鈥� says Mr. Grogan. A rock-solid Baptist who says he鈥檇 never vote for a Democrat, he notes, 鈥淲hether it's same sex marriage or NAFTA, we have to be open to change.鈥�

Like Trump, Republicans interviewed here in Polk County largely support same-sex marriage rights, want clear national security interests to be laid out before sending troops into battle, and want America 鈥� in part by boosting the struggling working class with better trade deals and tougher immigration enforcement 鈥� to regain its swagger and self-confidence on the global stage.

鈥淚n the '50s, '60s and '70s, everybody was very cut and dried鈥� on social and economic issues, says Stansbury. 鈥淗eck, I was cut and dried. But I鈥檝e changed, and I鈥檝e come to realize that we鈥檙e all in this boat together.鈥�

Nevertheless, large parts of the Republican establishment can鈥檛 believe that primary voters fell for Trump. Some, including South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, say they won鈥檛 support the presumptive nominee at all.

Such recalcitrance 鈥� even open disgust 鈥� underscores how difficult it has been for the Republican establishment to understand that Trump has tapped into a fundamental frustration (and hope) for many voters 鈥� the idea of a more idealized America, worth fighting for.

鈥淚 remember telling a local party official last year that it鈥檚 hard to believe GOP voters are so angry that they would cut off their nose to spite their face, and it turns out my friend was right: They were angry enough to cut off their nose to spite their face,鈥� says Professor Feaver. 鈥淎t the same time, a lot of those voters believe that experts like me are wrong. And we have been wrong so far, so maybe they鈥檙e right.鈥�

To be sure, voters like Forsyth have emerged as a potent X factor. Already, voter registration efforts are setting records in many states, both on the Democratic and Republican side. Trump boosted primary turnout by more than 300 percent in many states.

鈥淲e鈥檙e in uncharted territory,鈥� says Mr. Neiheisel at SUNY Buffalo.聽 鈥淚f we鈥檙e looking at pure economic or political models of who should be winning the general election 鈥� things like the state of the economy or voter fatigue, for example, where it鈥檚 tough for a party to earn a third term in the White House 鈥� it鈥檚 a toss-up. But if you run over to the betting markets, they鈥檙e saying a 70-30 split, with 70 percent favoring Hillary, which means people who are putting their money on this think they know something else.鈥�

Those odds make Trump and his supporters underdogs. But that鈥檚 a role many of these party-crashers have already embraced.

鈥淧eople around here are tired of losing,鈥� says Forsyth. 鈥淭hey want to win again.鈥�