Is the Republican establishment now a third party?
Remember when the GOP was so worried about Donald Trump running as a third party candidate in the general election that it pushed a loyalty pledge on presidential hopefuls? Now the wingtip is on the other foot. Disaffected Republican loyalists are talking about mounting a third-party effort to challenge Mr. Trump, instead.
It鈥檚 unclear if the chatter is serious. Right-leaning pundit Jennifer Rubin in The Washington Post: 鈥淭here are several groups with access to funding, in communication with one another, working on a third party run.鈥澛�
William Kristol, Weekly Standard editor and a charter member of the #NeverTrump club, appears to be shopping around for a possible candidate. His primary target on Thursday was Sen. Ben Sasse (R) of Nebraska, the only Republican senator to say outright they won鈥檛 vote for the party鈥檚 new presumptive nominee. Senator Sasse has been flooding social media with posts imploring someone, anyone, to step up as an alternative to Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Sasse has said he can鈥檛 run because he still has three small kids at home. As a father with grown children, Mr. Kristol鈥檚 been telling him that time spent at home with youngsters is overrated. (Yes, he鈥檚 being sarcastic, but only a little.)
鈥淭hose three little kids will enjoy their dad鈥檚 6-month campaign 鈥� do home schooling on the plane, see the country..." Kristol tweeted Thursday afternoon.
A third-party effort can鈥檛 win, of course. Ms. Rubin writes that there is a path, but it involves denying anyone a 270 Electoral College vote majority and throwing the election into the House of Representatives. That鈥檚 unrealistic. No reasonable possible candidate, including Sasse, former Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, ex-Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, or even Mitt Romney, has the star power and voter appeal to pull that off.
On the other hand, a third party 鈥淩eal Republican鈥� candidate might provide someone for worried down-ballot GOP candidates to reference. Look at GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, who鈥檚 locked in a tough reelection battle. She鈥檚 said she鈥檒l support Trump, but won鈥檛 endorse him. What鈥檚 that mean? It鈥檚 a straddle the media will ask about for months to come. A factional GOP ticket could give her someone else to back without seeming too disloyal.
But the real problem about this unrest among the party elite is that it鈥檚 about them as much as about real GOP voters. They鈥檙e appalled by Trump and think he鈥檒l lead the party to defeat, but lots of rank-and-file party members don鈥檛 agree with that, and are happy with Trump. Who was their choice, after all.
Right now, Trump鈥檚 got a 59 percent favorable rating among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, . His unfavorable rating in the party is 35 percent, for a plus-24 net favorable.聽
Among GOP voters, Trump is far more popular than, say, , who is now underwater with a minus-34 percent favorability among Republicans. ? He鈥檚 underwater too, with a minus-6 net favorable rating.
Yes, Trump enters the general election as the most unpopular presidential candidate since the advent of polling, overall. But that鈥檚 because his ratings with Democrats and independents are truly abysmal. Many in the GOP elite/establishment class see that and are worried about the consequences. Some continue to cast about for third-party alternatives. The larger Republican electorate does not feel that same way.
