Prospects are bright for Hillary Clinton in closed primaries ahead
Hillary Clinton鈥檚 got one hidden advantage in her struggle to fend off Bernie Sanders and win her party鈥檚 presidential nomination: She鈥檚 more popular with Democrats.
No, this is not Ted Baxter-like dumb. (, youngsters.) The situation is more complicated than the above sentence sounds.
Former Secretary of State Clinton does better than Senator Sanders with voters who are registered Democrats. That means she performs better in closed primaries, where only registered Democrats can participate. In fact, she鈥檚 won the closed Democratic primaries so far.
The flip side of this is that Sanders does better with voters who lean Democratic, but register as Independent. He鈥檚 done particularly well in open Democratic primaries and caucuses, where any voter who chooses (even Republicans) can participate if they wish.
A recent hints how this plays out in numbers. Overall, the survey has Clinton and Sanders virtually tied. But Clinton leads Sanders by 21 points among Democrats who are strongly attached to the party. Sanders leads Clinton 61 to 32 among Democratic-leaning independents.
This makes sense if you think about it. Clinton is a lifelong Democrat who was first lady to a Democratic president and a Democratic senator from New York. Sanders was an independent senator who reentered the Democratic Party to run for the White House.
About one-third of all independents are closet Democrats, according to political scientists. They vote as if they were Democrats, but for various reasons, including embarrassment at wearing a partisan label, they prefer to label themselves as something else. Kind of sounds like Bernie in his pre-primary days, doesn鈥檛 it?
Anyway, this split may play to Clinton鈥檚 advantage in coming weeks. Of the five biggest primaries left, four are closed.
The upcoming New York primary is closed 鈥� Democrats only, please. Pennsylvania and Maryland, also closed. New Jersey? Closed.
No wonder Clinton has been not-too-subtly mentioning Sanders鈥檚 newbie credentials.
鈥淗e鈥檚 a relatively new Democrat, and, in fact, I鈥檓 not even sure he is one,鈥� said Clinton in a podcast interview with Politico鈥檚 Glenn Thrush last week.
The Sanders people know the closed/open split is a problem for them. Bernie鈥檚 has a cool interactive map supporters can click on to discover if, and when, they need to register as Democrats in order to vote the Bern.
If you鈥檙e outraged that closed primaries exist, and feel that every American should be able to vote for whomever they want in the primaries, tough luck. The parties are in essence private clubs and get to determine how they choose their nominees. Even if some tax dollars get spent in the process.
It鈥檚 not as if they鈥檙e actually preventing the from being declared the winner. That would be truly anti-democratic, right? Right?
