Why the Rubio campaign urges Ohio to vote for Kasich. What?
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Here鈥檚 how desperate Marco Rubio has become: His campaign is asking supporters to vote for John Kasich in Ohio on Tuesday.
That鈥檚 right. One GOP candidate is trying to win the presidential nomination by urging his own voters to desert him and back another guy, all in hopes of a triple bank shot landing a three-pointer in the bottom of the ninth.
Or something like that.
This is the background: During a Friday , Senator Rubio鈥檚 communications director Alex Conant said that any Republican voter in Ohio who wants to beat Donald Trump should strategically vote for home state Governor Kasich.
When asked specifically if that meant he was urging a fancy strategic vote meant to block Mr. Trump and keep Rubio鈥檚 hopes alive, Mr. Conant said, 鈥淵eah, my answer is John Kasich is the one candidate in Ohio that can beat Donald Trump.鈥
The opposite is true in Florida, Conant suggested. His implication was that Rubio and Kasich supporters should vote Rubio in the Sunshine State, since the Florida senator is the one with the best chance to topple Trump there.
The point of this would be to force a contested convention (or a contested post-primary pre-convention period when things get sorted out). Trump, denied the delegate-rich prizes of Ohio and Florida, would fall short of an absolute majority and thus have to fight for the nomination on the floor of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July. Rubio would remain in the game as well, and would possibly have an advantage in such a scenario, given that the anti-Trump GOP establishment might be able to skew the rules in his favor.
Hey, don鈥檛 blame Rubio, he鈥檚 just picking up on a suggestion made by Mitt Romney in his anyone-but-Trump speech earlier this month. Right?
Will this work? Theoretically, it could. But it probably won鈥檛, and what it really shows is that the Rubio campaign is inches from being over.
The Kasich campaign coldly highlighted a major flaw in this strategy with its response. In sum, Kasich is doing OK in Ohio anyway. Rubio is trailing in Florida, with or without crossover support.
鈥淜asich spox Rob Nichols on Rubio news: 鈥榃e were going to win in OH without his help, just as he鈥檚 going to lose in FL w/o ours,鈥 鈥 Kathleen Ronayne on Friday.聽
Kasich actually isn鈥檛 in the lead in Ohio polls, but he鈥檚 virtually tied. The of major surveys has him trailing Trump in the Buckeye State by 2.5 percentage points.
By contrast, Rubio is about in Florida. Perhaps he鈥檚 gained momentum in recent days. But his spokesman鈥檚 playing the collusion card would suggest he hasn鈥檛.
If Rubio loses Florida, it鈥檚 over for him. Period, full stop.
Plus, would the big players of the Republican Party really deny their party鈥檚 top vote-getter the nomination if he doesn鈥檛 quite reach a majority? And hand it to somebody who that top vote-getter (OK, Trump) beat?
Stranger things have happened in US politics, but for the most part, they haven鈥檛 ended well.
"While it鈥檚 comforting for many Republicans 鈥 and fun for many analysts to envision a surprise twist ending to the nomination process in Cleveland this July, such an outcome remains somewhat improbable from today鈥檚 vantage point,鈥 writes Boston College political scientist David A. Hopkins Friday at his .
And only one person has a clear path to winning the GOP nomination outright in the primaries.