Does Donald Trump have Democratic supporters? Not many.
Do many Democrats support Donald Trump?
That鈥檚 a question raised by some of the comments we get on Trump poll stories. Or rather, it鈥檚 not so much a question raised as an assertion made, sometimes with expletives.
These Trumpians start by blasting our analysis that Trump鈥檚 voter base remains limited, since it鈥檚 about 30 percent of the 30 percent of America that are declared Republicans. Trump鈥檚 Army is much huger than that, they claim. Why even lots of Democrats are behind him! They know many of these potential party-switchers personally. At least that鈥檚 what they claim.
They may get this Democrats-for-The-Donald idea straight from the man himself. Trump has said he鈥檇 get lots of Democrats in the general election, just like Ronald Reagan did in 1980.
鈥淚 think me, more than anybody else, I鈥檒l go across lines ...聽 I will have a lot of Democrats voting for me 鈥� far more than any Republican for the last long period of time,鈥� Trump said in an August interview with CNN鈥檚 Don Lemon.
On the surface this makes sense. Trump has donated lots of money to Democrats in the past. He鈥檚 mused that single-payer health care works fine in some countries. He鈥檚 defended some social programs while appearing open to some taxes on the rich.
The Club for Growth, among other conservative groups, has run ads this cycle portraying Trump as a closet Democrat that true Republicans should not support.
But no, there really aren鈥檛 Democrats behind Trump 鈥� at least, not many. There are outliers, but they鈥檙e rare. The analogy would be to Yankee fans living in Boston鈥檚 Back Bay. They exist. It鈥檚 just the prevailing sentiment is about 90 percent in the other direction.
For instance, in a general election match-up between Hillary Clinton and Trump, 91 percent of Democrats would vote for Clinton, according to a just-released . Only 7 percent would vote for Trump.
Seven percent of Republicans would vote for Clinton, so in that particular poll the party-switchers cancel out. (Overall, Clinton wins the Quinnipiac head-to-head 47 to 41 percent, in case you鈥檙e interested.)
On the surface, an of New Hampshire voters looks better for Trump. The poll asked Granite State Democrats which Republican they鈥檇 like to see win their crucial early primary.
Nineteen percent of New Hampshire Democrats opted for The Donald. That was good enough for second place in this notional Republican primary for Democratic voters. Ohio Gov. John Kasich won, with 25 percent.
But there鈥檚 a catch 鈥� pressed, half those voters said they wanted Trump to win because he鈥檇 be the easiest candidate for the Democrats to defeat in November. Only 9 percent said they actually liked the billionaire real estate magnate.
This split shouldn鈥檛 be surprising. Trump鈥檚 fierce opposition to undocumented immigrants has earned him the enmity of Hispanics, a key Democratic Party constituency.
Plus, partisanship remains the best predictor of voting behavior in a general presidential election. The vast majority of Democrats, approaching 90 percent, will vote for the Democratic candidate. The same will be true for the Republican candidate. The parties are much more distinct ideologically than they were even thirty-five years ago, and that makes for more stable party-line votes.
If Trump ran as a third-party candidate, it might be a different story. An found that 19 percent of Democrats said they might vote for Trump under those circumstances.
But Trump鈥檚 not running as an independent. At least, not yet.
