GOP debate 'winners': Three takeaways
Nobody鈥檚 won last night鈥檚 Republican debate 鈥� yet.
Yes, lists of winners and losers are this morning. asserting with confidence that Carly Fiorina did great, Donald Trump took lots of hits, and Scott Walker was present but barely accounted for.
But theseare subjective and probably premature. The consensus has almost certainly missed one candidate that will rise or fall in a manner the punditocracy will find inexplicable.
You鈥檒l remember that happened after the first GOP debate. Ben Carson didn鈥檛 light the stage on fire. Some called his performance 鈥渟leepy.鈥� Now he鈥檚 napped his way up to No. 2 in the polls.
Why does this happen? Here are our takeaways on the ephemeral nature of debate judging:
It鈥檚 not 鈥淛eopardy.鈥� Political debates have no scoring rules and aren鈥檛 an actual game. That means different people judge results differently according to their various biases and beliefs. (See 鈥渟ubjective,鈥� above.)
The media sees a different show. Last night鈥檚 ratings will probably be huge. But how many normal voters watch debates the way journalists do 鈥� all the way through, while taking notes? Not that many, we鈥檇 wager.
Most viewers tune in and out, or read about it the next day on social media, or see clips and snippets on 鈥淢orning Joe.鈥� The audience that consumes debate news that way is far larger than the one that sat rapt for three hours, as if they were watching their favorite reality show, 鈥淪o You Think You Can Dance around the Iran Question?鈥�
That makes brief highlights more important in the final tally and sustained performance less important.
鈥淛ournalists and political pundits don鈥檛 have so much in common with the Republican voters who are watching the debates at home,鈥� wrote FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver on the data site鈥檚 debate .
The debate鈥檚 not over. Last night鈥檚 show was exhausting for candidates and questioners alike. At three hours long, it seemed the length of a typical White House administration. But the secret is, it鈥檚 still ongoing. The candidates scramble to appear in spin rooms and on talk shows in an effort to reiterate their points and change voter perception of what went down in Simi Valley, Calif., in the first place.
Yes, the time on stage was important. But what happens after that is an extension of the political struggle that began when CNN鈥檚 Jake Tapper asked the assembled multitude to introduce itself.
That鈥檚 why it鈥檚 hard to predict the debate鈥檚 impact, writes political scientist Jonathan Bernstein in his Bloomberg View .
鈥淚n the short run, what will matter is which clips play over and over in the media, and what opinion leaders and high-profile Republicans say about who 鈥榳on鈥� and who 鈥榣ost.鈥� 鈥�
Carly Fiorina did do pretty well, though, didn鈥檛 she? See, we just can鈥檛 resist.
