Donald Trump: Whose voters is he stealing?
Right now, Donald Trump is like a black hole whose stupendous gravitational pull is attracting a lot of media attention and some of the voters associated with the Republican 2016 presidential race. Which of his rivals in particular is this hurting?
After all, Mr. Trump鈥檚 poll numbers have risen sharply since he said that this time, he鈥檚 actually, positively running. Polling is a zero-sum game: His rise means other folks have fallen. Let鈥檚 look at the numbers and see which of Trump鈥檚 fellow candidates they are.
First, two caveats: Our Trump track record is not good. We thought he鈥檇 move to Maine and raise beets before he鈥檇 run for president. We belittled reporters who implied otherwise. We were wrong.
Also, the polls we鈥檙e about to pick apart are early ones, so they鈥檙e far from definitive. At this point, they鈥檙e more of a general suggestion than a precise measurement. That goes even more so for the poll cross-tabs, which have a smaller sample size. Still, they could be hints of what鈥檚 to come.
OK, back to the main feature. As we said, Trump鈥檚 gotten a post-announcement bump in polling popularity. In the crucial early caucus state of Iowa, for instance, he鈥檚 risen to a tie for second place. He currently attracts 10 percent of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, according to a . Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson also gets 10 percent. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leads the Iowa pack with 18 percent.
The bottom line? In a look further down the list, the contender who appears to be losing ground in Iowa is Mike Huckabee. He鈥檚 at only 5 percent in the new Quinnipiac poll, down from 11 percent in a comparable May survey. That sort of makes sense: Mr. Huckabee鈥檚 God, grits, and gravy populism isn鈥檛 that far off Trump鈥檚 anti-immigrant and bellicose positions.
But Governor Walker鈥檚 dropped a bit in this poll series as well. And if you move to New Hampshire, state of the first-in-the-nation primary, it appears that Trump鈥檚 entry into the race has pushed the Wisconsin governor down a Franconia-sized notch. 聽
In New Hampshire, Trump鈥檚 in second, according to a recent , with 11 percent. Jeb Bush leads in the Granite State with 14 percent. Walker trails with 8 percent 鈥� a substantial drop from had him at 14 percent of the GOP primary vote.
Nationally, Trump鈥檚 jump into the fray has affected Marco Rubio the most, according to a . Senator Rubio now stands at 6 percent in CNN鈥檚 most recent numbers, down from 14 percent in May.
Walker鈥檚 also slipping nationally, according to CNN. He鈥檚 at 6 percent, down from 10 percent in May.
Trump? He鈥檚 in second place (again), with 12 percent of the vote, up from 3 percent in March, according to CNN鈥檚 numbers.
See the pattern here? There鈥檚 one top contender who鈥檚 largely unaffected by Trump鈥檚 escalator ride to candidacy 鈥� Mr. Bush. He remains the weak front-runner, but now he鈥檚 got Trump behind him like a screen. The Donald is holding his arms out and bellowing to keep others from catching up.
The question is whether Trump鈥檚 newfound numbers will hold up. In 2012, a series of Mitt Romney鈥檚 rivals rose and fell. They were discovered by voters, then received more intense press scrutiny (Herman Cain鈥檚 alleged sexual harassment problem comes to mind) and fell to earth.
As an actual candidate, Trump鈥檚 now getting a taste of what more-critical media are like. The uproar over his harsh remarks about Mexican illegal immigration may be just the start. His rambling announcement speech could provide fodder for more such flaps to come.
