Republican National Convention finalists: Which city is front-runner?
Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus on Thursday announced the finalist cities for the 2016 GOP national convention. Long story short, it鈥檚 Ohio versus rivals in the South and West for the economic and publicity benefits of hosting this big party presidential confab.
That鈥檚 because the list contains no fewer than three Ohio cities: Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Columbus. (What, Akron鈥檚 busy that month?) The list is filled out by Denver; Dallas; Kansas City, Mo.; Phoenix; and Las Vegas. Yes, Las Vegas, a place occasionally described as 鈥淪in City.鈥� In fact, the early handicapping makes Las Vegas the pundit favorite to win the nod.
In part, that鈥檚 because Las Vegas should have little problem pulling together the money needed to ready for the influx of the RNC and its conventioneers. It can call upon such donors as billionaire gambling impresario Sheldon Adelson, who has given millions of dollars to Republican candidates and causes.
Vegas also has ample hotel space within a mile or so of the proposed venue, the Las Vegas Convention Center. Smaller cities can struggle with the scale of a national political convention, with some state delegations and media exiled to rooms far from the madding crowd (we鈥檙e looking at you, Charlotte, N.C., host of the 2012 Democratic National Convention). For Las Vegas, the GOP might not even be its biggest convention customer of the month.
RNC chair Priebus has said he wants to hold the convention in June or July, as opposed to the traditional August. This might also help Las Vegas, as its average August temperature tops 100 degrees. There is that temptation issue, however.
鈥淟as Vegas is a terrible idea for the RNC convention,鈥� Melissa Clouthier on Thursday. 鈥�100s of opposition researchers following idiot GOP-ers around. No.鈥�
As for Ohio, its advantage is obvious. It鈥檚 America鈥檚 premier swing state, and conventional (groan) political wisdom holds that a national party gains an edge in states where it holds its quadrennial nominating celebration.
Thus the three Ohio finalists. Maybe they could all win, and Republicans just roam the state in a caravan over a week, visiting each in turn?
Denver is also in a purple state that鈥檚 key to party electoral strategies. Kansas City ditto, though Missouri leans somewhat more GOP than does Colorado.
Dallas and Phoenix would be safe choices in safe Republican territory.
Democrats chose Charlotte in 2012 in large part because they hoped it would help put North Carolina in play. It didn鈥檛 seem to have that effect: Mitt Romney won there by several percentage points.
In general, the conventional wisdom isn鈥檛 true, according to some political scientists. There鈥檚 no hard evidence that the location of the party conventions affects the presidential vote.
鈥淕enerally, parties do not derive significant electoral benefits in states selected to host the national convention,鈥� concluded University of Maine in a 2004 journal article that looked at presidential elections from 1932 to 2000.
Candidates do get a bump in their home states, however, according to this study. So if the GOP really wants to win Ohio, maybe it should pick the state鈥檚 GOP governor, John Kasich, as its nominee, instead of packing hundreds of people in funny hats into a Cleveland arena.
