Joe Biden says no reason he shouldn't run in 2016. Really?
Joe Biden on Friday said 鈥渢here鈥檚 no obvious reason鈥� he shouldn鈥檛 run for president in 2016.
In an interview on CNN鈥檚 鈥淣ew Day鈥� program, the incumbent vice president said he鈥檇 decide on a candidacy by midsummer 2015.
鈥淭he decision to run or not run is going to be determined by me as to whether I am the best-qualified person to focus on the two things I鈥檝e spent my whole life on 鈥� giving ordinary people a fighting chance to make it and a sound foreign policy that鈥檚 based on rational interests of the United States,鈥� Mr. Biden told CNN鈥檚 Kate Bolduan.
This is pretty much in line with the way Biden has been talking about 2016 for some time. But it鈥檚 given lots of pundits an opportunity to play the savvy cynic and provide those no-go reasons Biden can鈥檛 imagine. Truth be told, that鈥檚 not hard to do.
He's the ancien r茅gime. As VP, Biden is a member of the existing administration (duh). That means in both primaries and the general election, foes would hold him responsible for the mess-ups of the White House. Voters often want to move on after eight years of the same team 鈥� in the modern era, only one veep, George H.W. Bush, has won election to replace the man under whom he served.
He's not beloved. As Philip Bump points out , Biden鈥檚 favorability rating is not great. According to the Huffpost Pollster average of major surveys, 40 percent of Americans approve of his job performance, and 48 disapprove.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 hardly set in stone, of course, but the trend is bad; he鈥檚 consistently grown less popular since the second inauguration,鈥� writes Mr. Bump.
He's Joe Biden. Throughout his lengthy Washington career, Biden has remained the same person 鈥� someone who says what he thinks, polls be darned. Often, this saying goes on, and on, and on.
Stuff just pops out. In a speech on Thursday, for instance, he described New York鈥檚 LaGuardia Airport as reminiscent of a 鈥渢hird world country." Earlier in the week, he gushed about GM鈥檚 new Corvette in a manner entirely in character with聽The Onion's satirical Joe Biden, who waxes his muscle cars in the White House driveway.
This can appeal to many constituencies. As a senator, Biden was beloved in Delaware. He remains a favorite of unions and working-class Democrats. But he has run for president twice before, in 1988 and 2008, and struggled both times. In 2008, he never broke past single digits in the polls.
In baseball, past performance is the best predictor of future statistics. That鈥檚 not a bad rule for politics, as well.
That said, we鈥檙e not sure that Biden is chomping at the hat to throw his bit into the arena, to mix a few metaphors. His words Friday struck us as lukewarm.
While he said there is no obvious reason he shouldn鈥檛 run, he prefaced that by saying there may be reasons he doesn鈥檛. Translation: 鈥淚f I don鈥檛 run, it鈥檚 not because I鈥檓 scared of Hillary Clinton. I pinky swear it.鈥�
The issues he mentions as his own, economic populism and a 鈥渞ational鈥� foreign policy, probably put him to the left of Hillary Clinton in a Democratic primary field. That鈥檚 a niche that Maryland Gov. Martin O鈥橫alley hints at occupying, too. Neither man has a choice, really, given the overwhelming shadow Mrs. Clinton casts over the race.
Right now, the presidential race is in the midst of the so-called 鈥渋nvisible primary," in which聽fundraisers, donors, consultants, and other elite party members make up their minds about whom to support. We agree with NBC鈥檚 鈥淔irst Read鈥� 鈥� what Biden is telling this crowd is that he wants them to keep him in mind as a contingency.
鈥淏ottom line: Joe Biden isn鈥檛 going to run for president if Hillary does. But if she doesn鈥檛, he probably will. And so while Republicans are looking for a 2016 front-runner, the Democrats have two of them 鈥� Hillary and Biden. Yet only one of them will be running for president,鈥�
