Obamacare may not be fixed by Nov. 30. Big deal or 'so what'?
Obamacare may not be fixed when promised. That鈥檚 the implication of a in The Washington Post Wednesday, which says stubborn software problems are likely to hobble the federal online health insurance marketplace into early December and perhaps beyond.
Right now the troubled HealthCare.gov site can鈥檛 handle more than 20,000 to 30,000 users at a time, according to Post reporters Amy Goldstein, Juliet Eilperin, and Lena H. Sun. That鈥檚 about half its intended capacity.
According to an unnamed official quoted in the story, technical experts have concluded that this situation isn鈥檛 getting better soon. This official says that those trying to fix the problems now believe that 鈥渢he only way for large numbers of Americans to enroll in the health-care plans soon is by using other means so that the online system isn鈥檛 overburdened.鈥�
President Obama likely winced when he saw this piece in his morning news feed. Back in October, Jeff Zients, the management expert brought in by the White House to rescue the troubled HealthCare.gov, told reporters that the site would be working smoothly for the vast majority of users 鈥渂y the end of November.鈥�
Perhaps that鈥檚 a red line Mr. Zients should not have drawn. Now the administration faces the prospect of missing a deadline it imposed on itself.
Or does it? On the record, White House spokesfolks are pushing back against this report Wednesday morning. Administration communications official Jennifer Palmieri that fixing the site by the end of November is still a 鈥済o.鈥�
鈥淭he website will be working well for a majority of users by Nov. 30,鈥� Palmieri told the magazine鈥檚 Jonathan Chait.
So what鈥檚 going on here? Is this a big deal, or a tempest in a tea cup (green loose leaf, hold the milk and sugar)?
We鈥檇 say its importantish. Missing the deadline could cause big political problems for the White House.
If nothing else, the administration is positioning for a coming fight on what constitutes 鈥渟uccess鈥� in the next few weeks. In that context, the website鈥檚 capacity becomes a crucial piece of information.
The Post apparently has the techie viewpoint: It鈥檚 still broken. But the administration may argue that things are much better than they were (true) and that therefore it鈥檚 OK to make the somewhat arbitrary judgment that the website is 鈥渇ixed.鈥�
As to the political situation, many Democrats are urging the Obama team to figure out a Plan B, and fast. Notable among them is ex-president Bill Clinton, who said in that the administration should ensure Americans can retain their current health policies if they wish 鈥渆ven if it takes a change to the law.鈥�
Some Democratic lawmakers are forging ahead by themselves. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) of Louisiana has introduced legislation that would mandate insurance companies keep people on current plans if they want.
Republicans, meanwhile, are seizing on this internal Democratic dissent as evidence that they鈥檝e been right all along about the nature of the Affordable Care Act.
Clinton鈥檚 comments 鈥渟ignify a growing recognition that Americans were misled when they were promised that they could keep their coverage under President Obama鈥檚 health care law,鈥� said Speaker of the House John Boehner (R) of Ohio.
What the administration really does not want to happen here is for congressional Democrats to break and agree to some temporary fix, perhaps even a delay in the individual mandate, which could make it harder to implement Obamacare down the road.
Politics aside, the Nov. 30 deadline and continued website glitches may not be crucial in terms of the rate of ACA enrollment. That鈥檚 because previous experience indicates that most Americans may wait until close to the deadline before signing up for new or expanded social programs.
When Medicare鈥檚 Part D prescription drug plan rolled out in the Bush presidency, two-thirds of those who enrolled did so after coverage actually began on Jan. 1, 2006, from market analysis firm Avalere Health.
鈥淧eople are slow to purchase coverage when new programs begin, and if past programs are any guide, we expect most exchange participants will wait until after January 2014 to enroll,鈥� said Avalere vice president Caroline Pearson in late October.
