With debt limit, John Boehner could be facing his defining moment
| Washington
It鈥檚 quite possible that the events of the next few days will define House Speaker John Boehner鈥檚 political legacy and his place in history.
Does that sound a bit over-dramatic? Maybe, but as of Tuesday it looks as if Mr. Boehner is the key Washington player who will determine whether the US defaults on its debts. Whether he鈥檚 willing or able to do so, and what that means for his chaotic GOP conference, are things that could reverberate in the US economy and government for a long time to come and overshadow other notable events of Boehner鈥檚 career.
Here鈥檚 the state of play: In recent days Senate majority leader Harry Reid and minority leader Mitch McConnell have been working on a fiscal deal to (temporarily) reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling. The basic structure of the deal involves discussions for a longer-term budget and tax play as well as some minor tax changes for Obamacare.
But conservative House Republicans consider this plan to be surrender. So Boehner and the rest of the House GOP leadership on Tuesday began a quick-step process to see if they can produce their own bill before the Senate presents them with a fait accompli.
That鈥檚 caused the Senate leaders to hit the pause button on their own talks, as they wait to see what Boehner can produce. Thus, at the moment, it鈥檚 the speaker of the House who has the legislative steering wheel in his hands.
Problem is, he鈥檚 having a hard time rounding up votes. Conservatives were cool to Boehner鈥檚 opening proposal, which would have reopened the government and raised the debt ceiling on the Senate鈥檚 schedule, and added a two-year delay in Obamacare鈥檚 medical device tax, plus elimination of federal payments toward the health insurance of members of Congress and the cabinet.
鈥淭here are no decisions about what exactly we will do,鈥� said Boehner at a brief press conference following a Tuesday morning conference of the House GOP.
The House leadership is still aiming for a vote as early as Tuesday evening. They鈥檝e dropped the delay in the medical device tax, of the National Review. Conservatives considered that 鈥渃rony capitalism鈥� which their constituents would not consider a victory.
It鈥檚 possible that congressional staff will be added to the list of people losing their federal health care contributions. And a House bill would likely include a provision temporarily barring the Treasury from using 鈥渆xtraordinary measures鈥� to shift around government funds in an attempt to avoid default.
Boehner is 鈥渢reading carefully,鈥� writes the well-sourced Mr. Costa. 鈥淎ccording to his allies, he鈥檚 still hoping to bring the House鈥檚 plan to the floor tonight, and he thinks it can pass, as long as a few elements of the proposal are tinkered with.鈥�
If Boehner can pass something, it might create additional leverage for Senator McConnell in his talks with Senator Reid. But Reid has already said he鈥檚 vehemently opposed to stripping the employer health subsidy from congressional staff. And the White House on Tuesday slammed Boehner鈥檚 effort, calling it a 鈥減artisan attempt to appease a small group of Tea Party Republicans.鈥�
If Boehner fails, it鈥檚 Reid who might gain leverage in the Senate.
In any case, the Senate might 鈥� in fact, probably will 鈥� make changes in any House bill. What will Boehner do then? Would he allow a bill opposed by conservatives to come up for a vote on the House floor?
The fiscal crisis has lasted weeks, but Boehner鈥檚 problem hasn鈥檛 changed. He has struggled to unify House Republicans unless he proposes legislation that won鈥檛 pass the Senate or be signed by President Obama. If he accepts a compromise bill that passes his own chamber with Democratic support, his 鈥渟peakership would effectively be over,鈥� political expert Chris Cillizza.
And the clock is ticking. The speaker鈥檚 time for maneuvering will soon be over.
