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Is Liz Cheney a lock to win a US Senate seat in Wyoming in 2014? Or is she riding for a fall in the Cowboy State?

After Ms. Cheney announced her plans to mount a primary challenge to GOP incumbent Sen. Mike Enzi, we judged it possible that she鈥檚 already the favorite in the race. Her ex-veep dad, Dick Cheney, is a state icon, remember. She鈥檒l be able to raise lots of money from her national connections.

But we鈥檝e received some pushback on this judgment from folks who know a lot about Wyoming politics, so we鈥檙e going to reconsider the matter. They say Cheney the daughter has no idea what she鈥檚 getting into, and people who think otherwise have spent too much time riding the range of carry-outs on Washington鈥檚 Capitol Hill.

First, there鈥檚 the possibility that money does not really matter so much in a state that's so thinly populated it has no major media markets. It鈥檚 true that Senator Enzi does not have much campaign cash in the bank, but you don鈥檛 need much to buy airtime in Cheyenne and Casper.

Second, given that ads can鈥檛 reach everyone in the state, there鈥檚 still no substitute for campaigning in Wyoming鈥檚 vast number of small outposts. Enzi, born in Thermopolis and former mayor of Gillette, has met with local business groups, weekly editors, and party activists for decades. Liz Cheney lived in suburban D.C. until recently.

Cheney has served as a high State Department official and helped run a national security group called Keep America Safe, but those credentials may not resonate with Wyoming voters.

Republican strategist this week that Cheney may be seen as 鈥渁 housewife who鈥檚 kind of bored who moved back to Wyoming after a long time to run for the Senate.鈥�

Finally, as Mr. Rollins noted above, there鈥檚 the carpetbagger issue. Voters in New York and California may not care how long candidates have lived in their states, but Wyoming is not New York or California.

Many Wyoming voters might judge that Cheney has not moved to the state yet. That鈥檚 because she has bought a home near Jackson, the Wyoming town that serves the ski resorts of Jackson Hole. Jackson is a well-off tourist town with an airport that whisks private jets in for the weekend. Much of the rest of the state views it as separate territory. It鈥檚 as if Cheney had moved to Aspen to run for a Colorado Senate seat, or were trying for governor of Massachusetts from her adopted home island of Nantucket.

In Washington, Republicans may see the Cheney versus Enzi race as a rising star versus a low-key party stalwart. That鈥檚 Friday in the Weekly Standard, in any case.

鈥淩epublicans in Wyoming have a difficult decision,鈥� Mr. Terzian writes.

It鈥檚 indeed possible that鈥檚 how GOP primary voters in the state will feel when they go to the polls next year. It鈥檚 also possible they鈥檒l have a different framework here, and see the race as a true Wyoming resident versus a newcomer.