海角大神

Surprise 鈥� Liz Cheney is going to run for a Senate seat in Wyoming next year. That鈥檚 where the Cheney family has roots, since dad Dick Cheney went to school there and was Wyoming鈥檚 lone representative before he became George W. Bush鈥檚 vice president.

But it鈥檚 not like Cheney the daughter has spent years building a network in the state and saluting the crowd at Cheyenne鈥檚 iconic Frontier Days. She just bought a house there last year after spending much of her recent life in the non-cowboy country of northern Virginia.

Plus, a Republican already occupies the seat Ms. Cheney wants, Sen. Michael Enzi. He鈥檚 in his third term and is Wyoming to the core: He grew up in Thermopolis and is a former mayor of Gillette.

So does Cheney have a chance to knock off Senator Enzi in the GOP primary?

Yes. Yes, she does. At this point, she might even be the favorite.

鈥淐heney represents a major problem for Enzi,鈥� judge Chris Cillizza and Sean Sullivan.

Money is one reason. She鈥檒l be able to raise all she needs to run in a thinly populated state where advertising is cheap. Her cash may come from out of state, because of the Cheney family鈥檚 national connections, but Enzi just won鈥檛 even be in the same league in terms of war chests. He鈥檚 clearly unprepared for a primary challenge, as at this point he鈥檚 got under $500,000 in his political accounts.

Then there鈥檚 the Cheney name. Enzi is famous for Wyoming, so the advantage here isn鈥檛 as clear as it seems from outside the state. But Mr. Cheney is still remembered by a significant portion of Wyoming voters as an alumnus, someone who rose from Casper to the highest level of US politics.

That counts for something.

Plus, it appears that Ms. Cheney will try to define Enzi as a go-along, someone who鈥檚 been content to work with party leadership and (gasp!) Democrats over the years. It remains to be seen how that plays in Wyoming as a whole, but it鈥檚 sure to get lots of attention and support from the tea party wing of the GOP and others who think the party鈥檚 problem is that it does not fight hard enough.

鈥淢ike Enzi is a fine Republican, but he is not putting points on the board for conservatives.... We need less rudderless Republicans who shuffle around at the direction of their leadership and lobbyist friends,鈥� conservative pundit Erick Erickson wrote Tuesday .

Of course, Cheney will have to handle the carpetbagger issue if she鈥檚 going to win. Enzi probably will try to define her as someone who鈥檚 running only because of personal ambition. It鈥檚 not like Enzi is a Northeastern moderate, like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R). He鈥檚 already one of the most conservative senators.

Enzi鈥檚 best course of action may be to charge that Cheney is 鈥渢oo extreme鈥� for Wyoming. She鈥檚 embraced her father鈥檚 neoconservative foreign-policy views, which included advocacy for the Iraq war and other interventionist actions. She鈥檚 charged that President Obama is 鈥渨orking to preemptively disarm America.鈥�

According to Enzi, she broke her word when she entered the Senate race.

鈥淪he said that if I ran she wasn鈥檛 going to run, but obviously that isn鈥檛 correct,鈥� Enzi said Tuesday.