Could Todd Akin still win?
Todd Akin says he鈥檚 not quitting. The GOP congressman insists he鈥檚 in the Missouri Senate race to the end, despite the fact that most of the Republican Party hierarchy is pressing him to step down. He hasn鈥檛 done anything morally or ethically wrong, and the furor over his use of the phrase 鈥渓egitimate rape鈥� when talking about pregnancy and abortion is an overreaction, Mr. Akin said Tuesday on Mike Huckabee鈥檚 radio show.
鈥淲hat we鈥檙e doing here is standing on a principle of what America is,鈥� said Akin.
OK then. It appears he鈥檚 going to continue his quest to unseat Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. Could he actually win?
The conventional wisdom is 鈥渘o.鈥� Many professional political prognosticators feel this flap has sealed his fate. Over at the Cook Political Report, analyst Jennifer Duffy judges that his comments about rape have 鈥渞endered him unelectable.鈥� Democrats will repeat them no end, and Republican campaign organizations have all withdrawn financial and political support.
鈥淎s long as he remains the nominee, this race is no longer a Toss Up and McCaskill is a strong favorite for re-election,鈥� writes Ms. Duffy.
University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato is not quite so harsh. His has moved the Missouri Senate race from 鈥渓eans Republican鈥� to 鈥渢oss up.鈥�
But the race still poses a dilemma, in the wake of Akin鈥檚 announcement that he鈥檚 staying in. 鈥淗ard to imagine either McCaskill or Akin winning,鈥� he wrote. 鈥淢aybe Akin gets out later on.鈥�
Unsurprisingly, that鈥檚 not how Akin himself sees the election unfolding. In a number of interviews on Tuesday he defended himself in part by portraying himself as a candidate who鈥檚 now outside the party structure, and thus more appealing to 鈥減olitical bravehearts鈥� (his words) who judge themselves independent.
Given current national attitudes about the poisonously partisan atmosphere in Washington, it鈥檚 at least possible that Akin is right. After all, current polls show that his gaffe hasn鈥檛 鈥� or hasn鈥檛 yet 鈥� taken a toll. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Aug. 20 showed Akin leading McCaskill by 1 percentage point, 44 to 43.
鈥淎kin has certainly been damaged by this whole thing ... but he鈥檚 by no means out of it 鈥� it looks like Missouri鈥檚 increasing Republican lean over the last few years would give him a decent chance at victory in spite of this major controversy,鈥� .
Missouri鈥檚 GOP tendency might indeed be Akin鈥檚 last, best chance at winning a Senate seat. As New York Times polling analyst , the Show-Me State has trended Republican in presidential votes since 1996. In 2008 it was the only battleground state Sen. John McCain (R) won.
Why is this? White, conservative, rural voters in the state have become increasingly Republican, as they have throughout neighboring Southern states, Mr. Silver writes. Missouri鈥檚 population growth has centered on such GOP strongholds as exurban St. Louis. Overall, Silver predicts that Mitt Romney has a 79 percent chance to take Missouri鈥檚 electoral votes.
So it鈥檚 possible Akin could ride into office on Romney鈥檚 coattails. But it鈥檚 also just as possible that the effects of his unfortunate language just have yet to sink in. A 2011 paper by political scientist Nicholas Chad Long of St. Edward鈥檚 University found that on average Senate incumbents involved in scandals of one kind or another lost 6 points at the polls.
鈥淭his decline in support made it more likely that those incumbents would fail to return to Capitol Hill,鈥� .
But Akin isn鈥檛 the Senate incumbent in Missouri 鈥� that鈥檚 Senator McCaskill. [Editor's note:聽The last sentence of this story, which contained an error, has been omitted.闭听
