海角大神

Could it be Condi? Don鈥檛 hold your breath.

We鈥檙e referring to the vice-presidential speculation that exploded Thursday, with a story on the Drudge Report saying that the former secretary of State had emerged as a 鈥渇ront-runner鈥� to become Mitt Romney鈥檚 running mate.

The buzz got an immediate boost from a variety of other voices on the right, with everyone from Rush Limbaugh to Sarah Palin to House majority leader Eric Cantor offering up approval.

It all strikes us, however, as a red herring.

True, Mr. Romney is probably getting close to making a decision on his No. 2 (if he hasn鈥檛 already). But if the campaign is hoping to get a significant bump in the polls after announcing the pick, a crucial component will be the element of surprise. Floating a trial balloon by leaking Condoleezza Rice鈥檚 name to Drudge would undermine that.

Then there are all the strikes against her:

1. She鈥檚 in favor of abortion rights. Given the lack of trust that many social conservatives have for Romney 鈥� whose position on abortion has, as he puts it, 鈥渆volved鈥� over the years 鈥� it鈥檚 been widely assumed that he will choose a running mate with a strong antiabortion record, to reassure the base. (Interestingly, though, Ms. Palin seemed to indicate some flexibility on that point Thursday night, noting that while she鈥檇 prefer candidates be antiabortion, 鈥渋t鈥檚 not the vice president that would legislate abortion ... that would be Congress鈥檚 role.鈥�)

2. She鈥檚 too closely associated with the Bush years. George W. Bush left office with a 34 percent approval rating and a 61 percent disapproval rating 鈥� and Ms. Rice鈥檚 role in many of the most controversial elements of his presidency, like the Iraq war, would be revived and probed all over again.

3. She鈥檚 not a politician. We know, Rice gave an electrifying speech at Romney鈥檚 donor retreat in Utah last month, firing up the crowd and giving rise to all the vice-presidential rumors that are now in overdrive. But she has never run for elective office, and she still strikes us as extremely private and even somewhat shy. It鈥檚 hard to picture her out on the campaign trail, giving stump speeches and working the rope line, or being willing to endure the kind of intense media scrutiny that goes with the territory. And of course, she has said repeatedly that she鈥檚 not interested (and yes, everyone says that 鈥� but in this case, we believe her).

Given all that, it seems to us that the Romney folks were really just looking for a splashy way to change the subject Thursday, away from the downward-sucking spiral that has become Romney鈥檚 record at Bain, what year he actually 鈥渞etired,鈥� what鈥檚 in his tax returns, offshore bank accounts, etc., etc.

But if leaking Rice鈥檚 name to Drudge was mostly an effort to turn the page, it could have unintended consequences. Specifically, we鈥檙e now wondering if the chatter 鈥� and evident enthusiasm 鈥� about Rice has gone beyond what the Romney campaign anticipated, to the point where it could make his eventual choice seem less exciting by comparison.

Of all the vice-presidential contenders being discussed, Rice clearly leads the pack in both star power and intellectual heft. And it鈥檚 awfully intriguing to imagine the impact of putting a black woman on the GOP ticket. At the moment, the electorate seems even more divided by race than in 2008: President Obama is polling at new lows among white men, while retaining or even increasing his support among minorities. If Romney could steal even a small percentage of minority votes away from the president, it could change the whole electoral map.

In a way, the jolt created by the Rice speculation has underscored one of the biggest problems for Romney. He is widely perceived as uninspiring and, well, dull 鈥� even by Republicans. Qualified, efficient, pragmatic, sure. But dull.

Conservative columnist Peggy Noonan recounted in her Wall Street Journal column Thursday that when she mentioned Rice as a possibly 鈥渂rilliant choice鈥� for VP to a crowd of business people recently, 鈥渟pontaneous applause鈥� erupted. As Ms. Noonan put it, the crowd seemed suddenly energized by the notion that this campaign could get exciting, after all.聽

That doesn鈥檛 mean picking Rice is the answer for Romney. But it raises new questions about the wisdom of putting a proverbial "boring white guy" on the ticket. Romney doesn't have many options left for injecting genuine excitement into his campaign. And he could use some.聽