海角大神

Ron Paul won Iowa! At the Iowa GOP convention over the weekend, supporters of the Texas libertarian walked away with 23 of the state鈥檚 28 national convention delegates. Under state Republican rules, those delegates are unbound, meaning they can vote for Congressman Paul in August in Tampa, Fla., if they please. It鈥檚 another example of how Paul鈥檚 strategy of getting his people organized at the grass-roots level has (somewhat) paid off in the end.

But does this Hawkeye State victory come too late to really much matter in the larger scheme of GOP politics?

We鈥檇 say yes, no, and no. But before we explain that, let鈥檚 stop for a moment to consider Iowa鈥檚 multiple 2012 Republican caucus results. We don鈥檛 know what they鈥檙e putting in the pork cutlets there these days, but looked at as a whole this year鈥檚 Iowa vote was positively hallucinatory.

Remember? The first announced result following Iowa鈥檚 traditional caucus kickoff to the presidential nomination cycles was that Mitt Romney won by eight votes. Then two weeks later Rick Santorum was certified as winner by 34 votes.

But those caucus votes were a straw poll. Now, months later, it turns out that the people who stuck around and get themselves picked to go to this week鈥檚 state convention were overwhelmingly Paul supporters. So that brings us to the third and final Iowa victor, Ron Paul. (Too bad they couldn鈥檛 figure a way to let Newt Gingrich win it for a few days, too, just as a gesture to GOP inclusiveness.)

Ron Paul鈥檚 campaign is hailing the Iowa results as a big win. 鈥淒r. Paul鈥檚 victory in the Hawkeye State affirms his delegate-attainment strategy and it has the added benefit of having occurred in the first-in-nation voting state, also a swing state,鈥� asserts .

But we鈥檇 argue the straw poll results had a bigger impact on the GOP horse race than this late-in-the-day delegate win. Michele Bachmann had to do well to survive, and didn鈥檛. Rick Santorum, by contrast, did do well, and kept rising.

鈥淪antorum鈥檚 tie/win/close second in the January vote was what affirmed him as the anti-Romney,鈥� writes Timothy Carney on the

However, we鈥檇 also argue that the final Iowa results could have an impact on how Ron Paul鈥檚 army views their candidate 鈥� and that in turn could influence the tone of the pro-Ron Paul rally in Tampa now scheduled for Aug. 26.

Paul himself announced Paulstock (our term) in last week.

鈥淲e鈥檇 really like a large turnout for this. Numbers are important... We should not be disruptive but neither should we be pushed around,鈥� he said.

The Iowa results could also affect how hard Paul's forces push inside the convention to get some of their pet issues 鈥� control of the Federal Reserve, Internet freedom 鈥� recognized in the party platform.

Interestingly, the Paul forces may have identified an adversary in this effort, and it isn鈥檛 Mitt Romney. It鈥檚 Rick Santorum.

In the aforementioned video to supporters, Paul mentioned that Santorum has vowed to rally conservatives to oppose some of Paul鈥檚 moves. At this, Paul took umbrage.

鈥淚t is true the Santorum people are principled. They鈥檙e also authoritarians. They want to use the government to impose their will on us as individuals,鈥� said Paul.

Paul generally has refrained from punching at Romney, and his son, Sen. Rand Paul (R) of Kentucky, has endorsed Romney. Holding up Santorum as an opponent could give his supporters someone on whom to vent their ire without jeopardizing a possible Ron Paul speaking slot at the convention or Rand Paul鈥檚 future in the party.