海角大神

President Obama鈥檚 open mic moment sure looks like a political flub. Attending the nuclear safety summit in Seoul, South Korea, and unaware that a nearby microphone was live, Mr. Obama on Monday told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that he would have 鈥渕ore flexibility鈥� in missile defense negotiations after the 2012 elections.

Then he patted Mr. Medvedev鈥檚 hand in a kind of 鈥渨e鈥檙e all in this together鈥� manner, and he sat back awaiting further proceedings, according to tape of the incident.

Wow. First of all, what鈥檚 with world leaders and microphone mischief? Can鈥檛 they all assume that every time they鈥檙e in public, every word is taped? Six years ago, a microphone at a Group of Eight summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, caught George W. Bush using an expletive to describe Hezbollah activity. Then there was the campaign appearance in 2000 in Illinois where a mike picked up Dick Cheney using an expletive to describe a New York Times reporter.

Of course, in the Bush and Cheney incidents, the mike picked up an expression of their real feelings. That鈥檚 what Republicans fear about Obama鈥檚 gaffe 鈥� that he鈥檚 just revealed his secret plan to impose his radical agenda on the United States after he tricks voters into giving him a second term.

Mitt Romney (can we call him the presumptive GOP nominee yet?) lit into Obama in that regard. At an appearance in San Diego he said, 鈥淭his is no time for our president to be pulling his punches with the American people and not telling us what he鈥檚 intending to do with regards to our missile defense system.鈥�

The Republican National Committee has already weighed in with a Web video backing up Mr. Romney on this point.

鈥淲hat else is on Obama鈥檚 agenda after the election that he isn鈥檛 telling us?鈥� it concludes.

Well, Obama did himself no favors by admitting something that鈥檚 pretty obvious. Right now, he鈥檚 got no room to deal with Russia on this issue. After November, if he wins, he鈥檒l be able to act without worry as to any policy鈥檚 effect on his reelection chances.

But our two kopecks' worth is this: We think Obama is just playing Medvedev along. There鈥檚 no evidence that second-term presidents revert to their imagined archetype, particularly when it comes to foreign policy. In his blog at Foreign Policy, Daniel Drezner makes this point well, noting that conservative Ronald Reagan鈥檚 second term was marked by arms control attempts, and Democrat Bill Clinton鈥檚 by forceful NATO military actions. Even Mr. Bush became markedly more dovish in his second term, according to Mr. Drezner.

鈥淸R]ecent second-termers have not reverted to their ideological bliss point 鈥� if anything it鈥檚 been the reverse, they鈥檝e tacked away from their starting point,鈥� .

Plus, flexibility is one thing. Power is another. Yes, second-term presidents don鈥檛 have to worry about appeasing the masses, but neither does Congress treat them with the deference of first-termers. They won鈥檛 be at the top of the ticket again, and friend and foe alike very quickly begin to focus on who might run next time. We鈥檝e said it before: Second terms are like slowly deflating balloons. Remember Iran-Contra?

Obama made this point in his own defense after the hot mic incident, though he didn鈥檛 put it so starkly.

鈥淭he only way I get this stuff done is if I鈥檓 consulting with the Pentagon, with Congress, if I鈥檝e got bipartisan support. And frankly, the current environment is not conducive to those kinds of thoughtful considerations,鈥� Obama told reporters at the nuclear summit. 鈥淭his is not a matter of hiding the ball.鈥�