海角大神

Jeb Bush has set up a killer fundraising operation, likely to dwarf anything the rest of the prospective Republican presidential field can do.

But that won鈥檛 guarantee him the 2016 GOP nomination. Mr. Bush, scion of the party鈥檚 most powerful family, needs to win over conservative activists 鈥� or at least enough of them to beat the competition when primaries and caucuses begin in a year.

Enter the Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, the Super Bowl of "movement conservative" activism. The confab begins Wednesday at a conference center just outside the Beltway and is the first big cattle call of the 2016 presidential race. Bush鈥檚 appearance at CPAC on Friday 鈥� a question-and-answer session with Fox News host Sean Hannity 鈥� may be the most consequential event of the entire four-day conference.聽

鈥淗e is trying to overcome the talk radio meme that he鈥檚 a squishy RINO who won鈥檛 fight,鈥� says Republican strategist Ford O鈥機onnell, using the acronym for 鈥淩epublican In Name Only.鈥� On Bush鈥檚 unorthodox-for-the-GOP views on immigration and education, 鈥渉e鈥檚 going to have to start to get buy-in.鈥�

The former Florida governor supports comprehensive immigration reform, including a path to legal status for people in the country illegally, and backs the national education standards known as Common Core.

All the speakers at CPAC have the option of eschewing the standard stump speech and submitting to questions from Mr. Hannity, but Bush is the only speaker known up front to have chosen that format. It carries risks; he can鈥檛 control the topics. But in other recent public appearances, the self-described introvert has appeared more engaging in conversational settings than in formal speeches.

Another likely presidential hopeful with much at stake at CPAC is Sen. Ted Cruz (R) of Texas. Senator Cruz is a darling of the tea party, but he needs to grow his appeal beyond that core and show that he has a shot at winning the Republican nomination. Cruz speaks on Thursday. Most of the other likely GOP candidates will also appear (as will Sarah Palin and Donald Trump). Some will hold private gatherings with activists. 聽

Young people will be everywhere. Thousands of them. At past CPACs, about half the crowd has been college students, bused in by presidential hopefuls aiming to do well in the straw poll on the final day. Sen. Rand Paul (R) of Kentucky is expected to win, as he has the last two years.

Aside from Cruz, Thursday鈥檚 lineup of GOP presidential hopefuls includes three sitting governors: Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana. Political novices Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon and conservative star, and Carly Fiorina, the former chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard, also will speak Thursday.

Friday features Senator Paul and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, in addition to Bush, who appears at 1:40 p.m. Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana, who says he鈥檚 still open to running for president, delivers the keynote address at dinner Friday.

Ms. Palin speaks Thursday, and Mr. Trump speaks Friday. A notable CPAC absentee is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who has appearances scheduled in Tennessee and South Carolina.

Among Republican voters, Governor Walker is the 鈥渋t鈥� man of the field. At CPAC, his task is to meet expectations and wow the Republican base. He鈥檚 on top in Iowa, the all-important first-caucus state, with the support of 25 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday. Even in Texas, which has two favorite sons preparing to run, Walker leads with 20 percent, according to a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll released Monday. Cruz had 19 percent and Mr. Perry had only 8 percent.

Walker represents a 鈥渢wo-fer鈥� in the Republican field. He polls well among conservatives (30 percent of the 鈥渧ery conservative鈥� back him in Iowa) and those who self-identify as tea party (33 percent in the Iowa poll). But as a sitting governor who has won statewide three times in Democratic-leaning Wisconsin, he also pulls support from the GOP establishment.

Another angle to watch at CPAC is gay rights. At the last minute, the head of the group Log Cabin Republicans, which supports same-sex marriage, was invited to take part in the panel 鈥淧utin鈥檚 Russia: A New Cold War?鈥� (but not the one called 鈥淭he Future of Marriage in America鈥�). Polls show Republicans increasingly accept gay marriage, but among older social conservatives, in particular, opposition remains high. This wing of the GOP is a crucial part of the party鈥檚 activist base.

"I want to make it really clear: Gay conservatives should feel comfortable to come to CPAC," Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union, which runs CPAC, . 聽"We don't have enough people in the center right to start excluding people from that coalition.鈥�

Mr. Schlapp also notes that Republicans haven鈥檛 won a big presidential victory since 1988, and reaffirms the old William F. Buckley rule for presidential nominations: 鈥淧ick the most conservative person who can also win.鈥澛�

CPAC will muster as much ethnic and racial diversity as it can, amid national demographic shifts that favor Democrats.聽

Organizers also say that the 41st聽annual CPAC aims to return the conference to its smaller, activist roots. Day One is devoted to an 鈥渁ctivist boot camp.鈥� A new staging format is designed to encourage more dialogue between speakers and the audience. Every speaker, including those who give speeches and don鈥檛 choose the 20-minute Q-and-A format, like Bush, will face questions from the audience.聽

Another sign of the times is the fact that the top two Republicans on Capitol Hill 鈥� Speaker John Boehner and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell 鈥� aren鈥檛 even coming to CPAC this year. Both said they鈥檙e too busy with their day jobs, especially as a clock winds down toward a possible partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security at聽midnight Friday.

But there鈥檚 also the unspoken fact that neither are all that popular among conservative activists. Last year, Senator McConnell raised eyebrows when he took the stage at CPAC and awkwardly held a gun aloft.聽