海角大神

What happens when political momentum collides head-on with cold, hard polling data?聽聽

The answer could come Nov. 6 in Pennsylvania.听听听

On Tuesday, Mitt Romney added it to its list of 鈥渢arget states鈥� for the last week of the campaign, meaning he will advertise in the commonwealth on Election Day and the day prior after largely ignoring the state for months. Groups allied with Romney will spend another $3 million on ads in Pennsylvania, as well. The reason for the switch? The Romney campaign is surging, operatives say.聽

The Obama campaign, however, dismisses Mr. Romney鈥檚 鈥淏ig Mo鈥� argument with a few facts: The president has led virtually every poll this election cycle, his party holds a sizable advantage in registered voters, and the Keystone State that hasn鈥檛 gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.聽聽

Writ large, this argument goes beyond Pennsylvania: In states such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Democrats argue that the polls are on their side, while Republicans counter that they are coming on strong when it counts. In North Carolina, the sides are reversed.聽聽

Clearly, Romney would love to win any of the states that polls have presented as blue to the core 鈥� and next week鈥檚 election could reveal how far momentum can go toward flipping polls in the latest stages of a campaign. But Romney鈥檚 Pennsylvania gambit could also represent an attempt to force Mr. Obama to play defense in a state he had hoped to take for granted.聽聽

In doing so, Romney hopes not only to move the polls in those states, but to pull Democratic resources from Ohio, Virginia, and other battleground states that Romney seemingly needs to win. Indeed, the Obama camp announced Tuesday that it would counter the $3 million spent by Romney's allies in Pennsylvania.

Rich Beeson, the Romney campaign鈥檚 political director, spoke of offense and defense in a memo released Tuesday afternoon. 鈥淭his expansion of the electoral map demonstrates that Governor Romney鈥檚 momentum has jumped containment from the usual target states and has spread to deeper blue states that Chicago never anticipated defending,鈥� he wrote.聽

Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes have long been a dream for the GOP. Sen. John McCain had grand designs for winning in 2008 鈥� and lost by 10 points. In his first term, President George W. Bush visited the state 44 times and still lost to Sen. John Kerry in 2004.聽

This year, state polls have given Obama a steady mid-single digit advantage over Romney since the beginning of October. The president maintains an average lead of 5 points in the most recent quartet of polls. In fact, Romney has not led a single poll in the Keystone State since February 鈥� and has led only three of 56 polls taken in 2012.聽

To Democrats, the Romney plan smells of desperation. 鈥淣ow, like Republicans did in 2008, they are throwing money at states where they never built an organization and have been losing for two years,鈥� said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina in an e-mailed statement. 鈥淟et鈥檚 be very clear, the Romney campaign and its allies decision to go up with advertising in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota is a decision made out of weakness, not strength.鈥澛犅�

Before Tuesday鈥檚 announcement, the Romney campaign signaled its slight hopes for Pennsylvania through its infrequent visits to the state. Romney鈥檚 last visit, a trip to Valley Forge on Sept. 28, was his first since July. Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan and Ann Romney went in October, but only once each 鈥� and Ryan was at his rally for less than an hour.聽聽

A late Romney dive into the state, however, risks firing up labor unions and other Democratic constituencies who previously might have stayed at home, assuming the race was won.聽

鈥淧oking this bear with this stick is going to wake up the sleeping beast, but it鈥檚 not going to only eat Mitt Romney, it鈥檚 going to eat a lot of other Republicans, too,鈥� says T.J. Rooney, a former chairman of the state Democratic Party. 鈥淚f there was any lethargy on the part of Democrats it鈥檚 a great call to get off the sofa and get out and do the get-out-the-vote stuff.鈥澛�

Overall, Republicans point out that voter registration in Pennsylvania, at just under 8.5 million voters, is down from the 8.75 million in 2008. That鈥檚 resulted in a slight decline in Democrats鈥� edge, which stands at 1.1 million.聽

Moreover, Romney might see an opportunity to make inroads among typically Democratic voters in Pennsylvania coal country. Coal is, perhaps not so coincidentally, the subject of a new ad released by the Romney campaign Tuesday.聽聽

鈥淭he great unwritten story, that will be figured out after the election is over, is how much western Pennsylvania has abandoned the Democrats,鈥� says Christopher Nicholas, a veteran Republican political consultant and political director at the Pennsylvania Business Council.聽

And while polling hasn鈥檛 shown a Romney surge, state Republicans were heartened by the performance of their Senate candidate, Tom Smith, who has gained on incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) with a withering barrage of attacks in recent weeks.聽聽

The Romney campaign鈥檚 new interest in the state has an emotional boost for state party operatives, who have 鈥渂een crawling through the trenches and they鈥檙e finally getting some air cover,鈥� says Mr. Nicholas.聽聽

Republican operatives argue that the same trends that have won Romney voters in national polls are operating in Pennsylvania, too. Romney鈥檚 recent performances in the debates and on the campaign trail have given undecided voters 鈥渢he green light to vote for him,鈥� says Charlie Gerow, a Republican consultant with more than three decades of political experience in Pennsylvania.聽聽

Or, perhaps, at the end of a relentless campaign, Team Romney just needed a green light to go somewhere new.聽

鈥淢aybe they鈥檝e just run out of towns in Iowa and Ohio to go to,鈥� Nicholas says. 鈥淭here鈥檚 some fresh towns here."