海角大神

The exchange on energy policy on Tuesday night鈥檚 debate was possibly the most contentious area of disagreement.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney tried to get President Obama in a headlock over the number of drilling permits issued to try to find new oil. Mr. Romney kept circling Mr. Obama while he asked six times, 鈥淗ow much did you cut them (drilling permits) by, then?鈥�

Obama blamed the oil industry for sitting on oil leases for decades and said the permits were taken away since they were not being used. But, regardless of the permits, Obama said, oil production is up.

Romney said, oh no, production on federal lands is down.

It would be surprising if anyone watching the debate were not confused.

Who is right? It turns out that there is truth in both statements.

First, there is no doubt that drilling permits fell. According to the Department of the Interior, permits dropped 36 percent in 2011 from the prior year. Romney claimed Obama had cut licenses and permits in half.

But what Obama did not say was that the reason permits dropped 聽was the giant BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in April of 2010. After the spill, the Department of the Interior issued a moratorium on new permits until it could review safety procedures and draft tighter anti-pollution regulations. In October 2010 it lifted the moratorium after drafting tougher rules.

鈥淲hen you have a spill that big you look around and ask, 鈥楢re we doing everything carefully,鈥� 鈥� says Sarah Emerson, managing principal at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Mass. 鈥淚t was careful governance, but it would have an impact on production in the subsequent year.鈥�

Instead, Obama said the industry was sitting on leases for decades. 鈥淪o if you want to drill on public lands, you use it or you lose it,鈥� he told Romney.

The government did take away some leases, agrees Amy Myers Jaffe, an energy expert affiliated with the University of California, Davis Graduate School of Management.

But she says Obama鈥檚 implication that the energy companies are lazy may be too negative.

鈥淪ometimes it鈥檚 more complicated,鈥� she says. For example, she says oil companies have to decide what their priorities are in terms of drilling. Sometimes, the best prospects may be in West Africa or Latin America. 鈥淵ou have to show management you are better off drilling here than somewhere else,鈥� she says.

How about Obama鈥檚 contention that oil production has risen while he has been president?

That is true.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), domestic production of oil, as of this month, is up by 26.4 percent over the end of President Bush鈥檚 term.

But Romney kept repeating that production was down this year on federal lands. 鈥淧roduction on government land of oil is down 14 percent,鈥� he repeated over and over again.

Romney鈥檚 assertion is partly true, but from 2010 to 2011, not this year. According to the EIA, production of oil on federal and American Indian lands dropped 12.5 percent in that time period.

Natural gas production was off 11 percent, higher than the 9 percent claimed by Romney. However, production of natural gas in total was up 7 percent in 2011 from 2010 as companies drilled wells on private land in places like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Dakota. Since Obama became president, natural gas production is up 12 percent.

鈥淒oes it really matter whether it comes from federal lands or not?鈥� asks Ms. Jaffe. She says the bigger question is whether or not the industry has access to drill for new oil. And the answer, she says, is yes. 鈥淭hey are drilling the daylights out of the land.鈥�

If Romney were president, he said he would make the US 鈥淣orth American energy鈥� independent within eight years.

Is that possible?

Currently, the US imports between 8 and 9 million barrels of oil per day.

Jaffe estimates the US could increase oil production from shale, offshore oil production, and some formations in Texas, Florida, Ohio, and western Pennsylvania. If all of those got drilled she says it seems reasonable that the US could increase production by 3 to 5 million barrels of oil per day 鈥渋f nothing goes wrong.鈥�

In addition, she can envision another 1 million to 2 million barrels of oil per day coming to the US from Canada.

Add in higher fuel efficiency standards for vehicles in the US, which were just raised by Obama and opposed by Romney. By 2025, the new standards mandate that an automobile manufacturer鈥檚 entire fleet averages 54.5 miles per gallon. That saves another 3 million to 5 million barrels of oil per day.

So, with increased oil production and better fuel standards, the US might not need to import oil from outside of North America. 鈥淏ut, we are talking 2025,鈥� says Jaffe. 鈥淣ot when these two men will be president.鈥�