Latest polls: Romney's uphill fight not as steep
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Everyone agrees that this past week was a big deal for Mitt Romney. Boffo reviews for his debate performance Wednesday night, a pirouette toward moderation that may attract undecideds and some disaffected Democrats 鈥 as long as they鈥檙e not cynically reminded of the infamous 鈥Etch A Sketch鈥 prediction by Romney鈥檚 advisor back in March, the child鈥檚 toy invoking 鈥渇lip-flop.鈥
It was, as senior Obama campaign adviser Robert Gibbs said on several TV talk shows Sunday, a 鈥渕asterful performance.鈥
But was the week a major game-changer for the presidential race?
There still are 30 days and two more Romney-Obama debates until Election Day. But initial post-debate polling shows definite movement in Mr. Romney鈥檚 direction.
搁贰颁翱惭惭贰狈顿贰顿:听Presidential debate: 7 defining moments in history (+video)
A Rasmussen national survey out at week鈥檚 end shows a shift from Obama 49-47 to Romney 49-47.
鈥淭his is a small shift that鈥檚 significant in a close race,鈥 pollster Scott Rasmussen told the New York Post. 鈥淏oth candidates have a stable base, and the race is close. Barring something that happens in the real world, it鈥檚 likely to remain close.鈥
鈥淏ounces are called bounces because they don鈥檛 last forever,鈥 Mr. Rasmussen says. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 know if this will disappear, or if they will build on it, or what other news will do to the race.鈥
The latest聽Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll聽shows President Obama's lead dropping from five points (48-43) to just two points (46-44). In Gallup鈥檚 daily tracking poll, Romney picked up two points, putting him within three points of Obama (46-49). The RealClearPolitics polling average (as of Saturday) has Obama ahead by just 1.4 points.
State polls are instructive as well.
In Wisconsin, the Public Policy Polling organization finds 鈥渁 big debate bump for Mitt Romney.鈥 Two weeks ago he trailed Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.
鈥淩omney's image has seen significant improvement over the last couple weeks with 49 percent of voters now expressing a positive opinion of him to 48 percent with a negative one,鈥 PPP reported Saturday. 鈥淭hat's up a net 8 points from a 44-51 spread on our last poll.鈥
Although Obama hung on to his 9-point lead among independent voters in Wisconsin, according to PPP, there's also been 鈥渁 big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election.鈥
In Colorado 鈥 another key state 鈥 the University of Denver reported Sunday that Obama continues to hold the lead among likely voters there 鈥 47-43 percent, including 48-31 among independents.
But there was good news for Romney in Colorado as well: 38 percent of likely voters said their impression of Romney is improving, while just 18 percent felt the same way about Obama.
鈥淭wo important lessons from the polls are, first, there are very few undecided voters left in Colorado, and second, Gov. Romney has improved his position to win them over in the closing days of the race,鈥 said University of Denver political scientist Peter Hanson. 鈥淧resident Obama is maintaining a narrow lead in the state, but the major question is how much movement we can expect in the polls in coming weeks with not many voters left for the candidates to persuade.鈥
Presidential elections are won and lost in the Electoral College, and the RealClearPolitics map shows Obama ahead of Romney 251-181 with 106 toss-ups. (It takes 270 electoral votes to win.)
Statistician and poll-watcher Nate Silver, who writes the FiveThirtyEight blog for the New York Times, gives Romney about a 20 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.聽Still, that鈥檚 up from 15 percent before last Wednesday鈥檚 debate.
鈥淢r. Romney鈥檚 gains in the polls have been sharp enough that he should continue to advance in the FiveThirtyEight forecast if he can maintain his numbers over the next couple of days,鈥 Mr. Silver writes. 鈥淚n a good number of the polls, Mr. Romney has not only improved his own standing but also taken voters away from Mr. Obama鈥檚 column, suggesting that he has peeled off some of Mr. Obama鈥檚 softer support in addition to gaining ground among undecided voters.鈥
搁贰颁翱惭惭贰狈顿贰顿:听Presidential debate: 7 defining moments in history (+video)