How Trump cuts could affect your weather reports
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Caitlin Babcock Staff writer
| Washington
Weather forecasts. Nautical charts used by the U.S. Navy. The cleaning and reopening of shipping ports after hurricanes. Seasonal climate predictions that help farmers plan their crop selection.听
All these fall under the purview of a federal agency called NOAA 鈥� the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 鈥� that could soon lose a quarter of its budget.听
On May 2, the White House released preliminary details of its for discretionary spending in the new fiscal year. The document provides a blueprint of the comprehensive budget the White House will send to Congress for its budget process. The document calls for $163 billion in cuts across the government and signals a desire to slash 鈥渟pending contrary to the needs of ordinary working Americans.鈥� Climate-related efforts, especially those the administration calls 鈥渞adical,鈥� were a target.听
Why We Wrote This
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration plays a key role in weather forecasts and hurricane warnings. Proposed budget cuts to the agency reflect the Trump administration鈥檚 frustration with its climate research.
The budget proposes a $1.5 billion reduction to NOAA funding 鈥� almost a 24% decrease from current funding levels. That鈥檚 left scientists and industry experts deeply concerned that NOAA won鈥檛 be able to fulfill services to people who depend on them, such as fishers, farmers, and the general public.
In the budget鈥檚 brief description of the cuts, climate change is heavily emphasized. The听budget鈥檚 authors write that cuts will target climate research and grant programs, as well as a satellite program and instruments used for climate measurement. But experts and agency staff say the suggested cuts could have wide-reaching impacts, including downgrading the quality of weather forecasts and other critical services.
Following the budget鈥檚 release, all living former directors of the National Weather Service, which falls under NOAA, drafted an open letter warning of drastic impacts if the proposed cuts were implemented.听
鈥淣WS staff will have an impossible task to continue its current level of services,鈥� including extreme weather warnings, the five former directors 鈥淥ur worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life.鈥�
NOAA, housed under the Commerce Department, has already faced cuts from Elon Musk鈥檚 Department of Government Efficiency. Nearly 10% of employees have been laid off, or accepted early retirement or a government-offered buyout, following warnings that their employment was uncertain.听
Agency operations have also slowed as Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick reviews all NOAA contracts over $100,000. One agency scientist the Monitor spoke with, who requested anonymity for job protection, says the center they work at has operated without maintenance or facilities services since mid-April.听
In the past, the president鈥檚 proposed budget has sometimes been seen as a symbolic gesture. But that may not be the case anymore, as Republicans in Congress strive to demonstrate that they鈥檙e in lockstep with President Donald Trump.
Allies of President Trump have previously called for breaking up NOAA. The conservative Project 2025 policy guidelines released ahead of the 2024 election called the agency's research arm a source of 鈥渃limate alarmism鈥� and said the 鈥減reponderance of its climate-change research should be disbanded.鈥澨�
Will weather alerts be affected?
The National Weather Service under NOAA provides weather, water, and climate forecasts. It鈥檚 now become a focal point for alarm about what cuts to NOAA might mean for everyday people.听
Millions of Americans receive weather information from the NWS. That includes daily weather forecasts as well as warnings for extreme weather such as hurricanes and tornadoes. It also includes people who use private apps instead of their phone鈥檚 generic weather app 鈥� the data is still gathered by NOAA.听
The reductions in workforce due to DOGE are already starting to impact weather services. In March, the NWS announced it was suspending weather balloon launches out of some offices. These launches are used to听collect atmospheric data that informs weather forecasts. Launches have been halted or reduced at more than 10% of regular locations since the Trump administration took office.听
Staffing shortages are also starting to impact local offices鈥� ability to operate around the clock. CNN on May 2 that 30 of the NWS鈥檚 122 weather forecast offices lack a meteorologist-in-charge 鈥撎齮he person responsible for the office鈥檚 operations.听
In their letter, the former NWS directors warn that some local forecast offices could be forced to switch to part-time services 鈥� something that has already happened in at least one office, according to the CNN report.听
Daniel Swain, a research fellow at the Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, says around-the-clock staffing is critical to these offices' ability to respond to severe weather as it occurs.
If offices started having to shut down, he says, 鈥渢hat鈥檚 the kind of thing that could be genuinely and acutely life-threatening day by day.鈥�
Many experts say the NWS already operates on a bare-bones budget, making any further cuts disastrous. Even if these cuts to NOAA don鈥檛 directly target the NWS, former directors say weather forecasts will still suffer given the interconnectedness of NOAA offices.听
Rear Admiral Timothy Gallaudet, who served as acting NOAA administrator under Mr. Trump in his first administration, says things will inevitably go wrong under a workforce that鈥檚 stretched too thin, no matter how competent the employees may be.听
鈥淭hey're going to have less people for backup, and they鈥檙e going to get tired, and mistakes are going to be made,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his is just straining them like nothing else. So things are going to slip 鈥� and that's public safety right there.鈥�
Paring back research investments听
Scientists say cuts in other areas of NOAA may be less visible听but could impede the agency's ability to improve its research, eroding America's status as a global leader in weather science.
For example, NOAA鈥檚 research office funds 10 university-run laboratories. Scientists in many of these laboratories study Earth鈥檚 atmosphere and ocean and work to improve computer models that form the basis of weather forecasts. One center, which has partnered with NOAA since 1973, helped pioneer a data-collection program that enhanced the accuracy of hurricane forecasts by .
A leaked memo in April indicated that the administration had planned to propose ending funding for all these labs and to formally eliminate NOAA鈥檚 research arm. It鈥檚 not clear from the preliminary budget released on Friday whether these changes are still part of the administration鈥檚 request 鈥� and even if they are, the cuts may not be approved by Congress. The White House has not replied to requests for comment.
But a lot of experts are still concerned. Without ongoing research to improve forecast models, Alan Sealls, the president-elect of the American Meteorological Society, worries the United States will fall behind the rest of the world.听
If you鈥檙e a sports team owner and you stop investing in your team research, he says, 鈥測ou might do great this year, but over time, your team is going to be weaker than all the other teams鈥� that continue to prioritize learning and studying.听
Rear Admiral Gallaudet says it would be wrong to assume NOAA doesn鈥檛 need to keep researching to improve its weather models. He points to an instance a few years ago when the agency missed a forecast for a tornado that struck a neighborhood, resulting in loss of life.
鈥淲e still have a reason to improve our forecasting capability,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e鈥檙e not there yet.鈥�
If planned cuts are carried out, adds Rear Admiral Gallaudet, 鈥渁ny improvement is just going to flat-out stop.鈥澨�
