Some collateral damage with disruption? In Trump 2.0, that鈥檚 OK.
The unprecedented tariffs announced Wednesday by President Donald Trump mark a decisive break with decades of bipartisan support for free trade. Even some economists and aides who support the levies 鈥� which include a minimum 10% on imported goods, with some countries subject to much higher rates 鈥� concede that they will inflict short-term economic pain. Mr. Trump himself has all but endorsed that view, brushing aside concerns about higher car prices.
Speaking in the Rose Garden, Mr. Trump promised 鈥済rowth like we鈥檝e never seen before,鈥� as rising fears about a global economic downturn sent financial markets into a tailspin.
That embrace of risk, and any political fallout with it, may be a feature not a bug of this administration. From tariffs to immigration enforcement to government resizing to war-planning group chats, Mr. Trump and his inner circle have modeled boldness and at times recklessness in pursuing their goals. The Silicon Valley ethos embodied by Elon Musk and his outsider team 鈥� 鈥渕ove fast, break things鈥� 鈥� has infused much of the administration in how it shapes and delivers on Mr. Trump鈥檚 agenda, say analysts. In some cases apparent errors 鈥� such as deporting immigrants without due process or 鈥� could also be seen as sending a message: that all migrants could be subject to such treatment.
Why We Wrote This
From tariff policy to combatting government bloat to tightening borders, Donald Trump鈥檚 second administration appears certain that some mistakes 鈥� or even a recession 鈥� are OK if larger goals for the nation are being served.
Mr. Musk has bluntly said his team 鈥渨ill make mistakes. We won鈥檛 be perfect,鈥� he . 鈥淏ut when we do make mistakes, we will fix it very quickly.鈥� that he couldn鈥檛 rule out a recession this year as a result of his tariffs. 鈥淭here is a period of transition because what we鈥檙e doing is very big. We鈥檙e bringing wealth back to America. 鈥� It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.鈥� Similarly, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, when about a possible tariff-induced recession, said 鈥渋t鈥檚 worth it鈥� to achieve the president鈥檚 goals.
To voters frustrated with the status quo who see Mr. Trump as an agent of change, the aggressive approach may seem preferable to an overly deliberative process that gets bogged down in bureaucracy. If mistakes happen, even serious self-inflicted harm, that鈥檚 just unfortunate collateral damage.
鈥淢ost Americans want to see the government cut back and made smaller. We want to see it become more efficient,鈥� says Matt Wylie, a GOP strategist based in South Carolina.
From Project 2025 to DOGE
During Mr. Trump鈥檚 first term, he also frequently complained that some officials in his own administration opposed or slow-walked his directives. This time, he has a more loyal team. And Mr. Trump knows the ropes better in Washington. Before he took office in January, conservative groups had prepared a detailed agenda in Project 2025, a blueprint for shrinking the federal government and rolling back regulatory oversight.
This plan was then supercharged by Mr. Musk, whose Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has presided over a radical restructuring of the federal bureaucracy. In a few short months, entire agencies have been dismantled and tens of thousands of employees have been fired or put on leave.
Already, DOGE has been forced to backtrack on some things. Some federal employees had to be reinstated after courts ruled that the government had acted unlawfully. In other cases, the firings were reversed by DOGE itself. Probationary workers at the National Nuclear Security Administration, which oversees nuclear-weapon sites, were fired and then recalled, although because DOGE had cut off their government emails and didn鈥檛 know how to contact them. Mr. Musk also froze an Ebola prevention program under the U.S. Agency for International Development, which it shuttered in January, then claimed to have restarted it without disruption, .
The indiscriminate firings may reflect Mr. Musk鈥檚 personal disdain for federal employees and much of the work they do. On X, his social-media platform, he has disparaged federal workers as inefficient or lazy. He has labeled others as 鈥渞adical Marxists鈥� who divert funds to Democrats and Democratic causes.
Republicans have long hoped to shrink the federal government and laid out plans for doing so, says George Thomas, a professor of American political institutions at Claremont McKenna College. While Mr. Musk鈥檚 slash-and-burn approach has so far achieved more than most anti-government crusaders before him, it comes with clear risks. He 鈥渟eems to have no idea what these institutions do鈥and] his ignorance is taken to be a virtue,鈥� Professor Thomas says. 鈥淗e just seems intent on wrecking American institutions.鈥�
On Monday, the Department of Health and Human Services began laying off several thousand workers at agencies that oversee drug approvals, medical research, addiction services, and other functions. Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. the cuts wouldn鈥檛 affect 鈥渆ssential health services鈥� and would realign the department with his mission to focus on prevention.
Mr. Trump has said that personnel cuts are the remit of his Cabinet secretaries, who should use a 鈥渟calpel鈥� to remove low performers from agencies. 鈥淚 want the Cabinet members to keep the good people, and the people that aren鈥檛 doing a good job, that are unreliable, don鈥檛 show up to work, etc., those people can be cut,鈥� .
DOGE鈥檚 approach, which has already drawn a flood of litigation, may yield only modest fiscal savings. But the greater impact won鈥檛 be known until sometime in the future, when hollowed-out agencies try to respond to a crisis, says Martin Gilens, a professor of public policy at UCLA. 鈥淎 lot of the consequences will be slow to develop,鈥� he says. Republicans have argued that states鈥� capacity to respond to crises should be bolstered so they鈥檙e not as reliant on federal agencies.
Prioritizing speed over deliberation
Unlike in Mr. Trump鈥檚 first term, when an inexperienced administration didn鈥檛 notch many significant achievements, his second term is likely to yield bigger wins, at least in the year and a half before next year鈥檚 midterms. But the administration鈥檚 successes may seed its own downfall, says Professor Gilens. 鈥淭his time it seems like the problems that they鈥檙e going to face are not being unable to do what they want, but rather the problems that result from doing what they want.鈥�
That includes imposing across-the-board tariffs on allies and major trading partners, a policy that until recently would have been anathema to most mainstream Republicans, as a drag on growth and investment.
Mr. Trump said on Wednesday that tariffs, scheduled to take effect over the next week, would stimulate investment in U.S. factories. 鈥淚f you want your tariff rate to be zero then you build your product right here in America.鈥� Analysts say that such investments take years and that uncertainty over U.S. trade policy 鈥� and Mr. Trump鈥檚 history of using tariffs to force unrelated concessions 鈥� made it harder for businesses to plan such investments.
The Senate voted Wednesday to narrowly approve聽, with four Republicans supporting it. White House officials have said that Mexico and Canada will receive exemptions from tariffs under a trilateral free-trade agreement.
Tariffs could be a serious political liability for Mr. Trump, since voters had expected him to lower prices, warns Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster. 鈥淢ost voters believe that tariffs will mean higher prices for them now and in the long run,鈥� he says. Mr. Trump and his team will need to 鈥渆ducate鈥� voters on what they argue will be the positive impact of tariffs on the economy and personal finances.
Still, voters also hold a dim view of how Democrats govern. President Joe Biden鈥檚 ratings never recovered from the chaotic exit from Afghanistan in his first year in office.
While tariffs raise questions about economic risk-taking, Mr. Trump鈥檚 administration has also shown incaution in other areas. National security adviser Mike Waltz鈥檚 use of Signal, an unsecure app, for a group chat about a U.S. bombing mission in Yemen raised questions about competence. Mr. Trump defended Mr. Waltz and others on the chat, including Vice President JD Vance, which inadvertently included the editor of The Atlantic. (Mr. Waltz also for other weapons-related communications.)
鈥淪ignalgate鈥� and the administration鈥檚 subsequent efforts to spin it as no big deal were reminiscent of Mr. Trump鈥檚 first term, says Mr. Wylie, the GOP strategist. Republican voters expected a more stable ship this time, and while there is more internal cohesion, the results so far have been mixed 鈥� particularly at DOGE, which he calls 鈥渁n excellent idea that鈥檚 been horribly executed.鈥�
Part of the problem is prioritizing speed over deliberation, possibly in anticipation of midterm losses in Congress, says Mr. Wylie. He also sees a strategy to overwhelm voters who don鈥檛 have time to digest all the details of what the administration is doing. 鈥淭ariffs and DOGE destruction go hand in hand. It doesn鈥檛 allow the American people to focus on what鈥檚 happening,鈥� he says.
