RFK Jr. reveals VP pick as Democrats try to sideline his campaign
As the 2024 general election gets underway, Democrats have begun to focus on what they see as a key threat to President Joe Biden鈥檚 reelection: candidates not named Donald Trump.
For the first time ever, the Democratic National Committee has launched a team solely focused on addressing third-party and independent candidates 鈥� specifically Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is now running as an independent. He recently earned in a handful of swing states and today announced his running mate, lawyer Nicole Shanahan.听
The DNC effort is expected to include a communications push, opposition research, and legal challenges against any ballot access infractions. And as the centrist group No Labels struggles to find candidates for its bipartisan ticket, Democratic super PACs and think tanks like American Bridge and Third Way have also pivoted their focus to Mr. Kennedy.
Why We Wrote This
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the best polling third-party presidential candidate in 30 years, announced his running mate today. His campaign remains a long shot, yet could have an outsize influence on the election.
In a presidential election likely be won on the margins, the success of Mr. Kennedy, who is polling better than any independent candidate since Ross Perot in 1992, could decide the race. But in the coming months, it鈥檚 not the Democrats鈥� new opposition effort that could be the biggest obstacle to the independent鈥檚 rise. Rather, his success could be stymied by a complicated procedural issue that has contributed to America鈥檚 dominant two-party structure:听ballot access.听
While Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump will be on the ballot in all 50 states as the respective candidates for the Democratic and Republican parties, candidates outside these two groups face听stiff filing requirements, with typically thousands of signatures, legal maneuvering, and deadlines that differ by state.
Some states require a presidential candidate to name a running mate before qualifying, one reason Mr. Kennedy announced his vice president in California on Tuesday. Another reason for his timing and choice of Ms. Shanahan, a philanthropist and former wife of a Google co-founder, is the fact that getting on the ballot as an independent can be expensive. Mr. Perot, for example, largely had the most successful independent campaign in modern history because he was a billionaire.听
鈥淭his campaign is up against the most powerful financial interests in history,鈥� Mr. Kennedy said while announcing his running mate. 鈥淲e also face a determined campaign to keep us off the ballot by fair means or foul. Evidently the Democrats have little faith in their candidate鈥檚 ability to win the old-fashioned way at the voting booth.鈥澨�
RFK Jr. effect on Biden, Trump campaigns
Although Mr. Kennedy is only officially on the ballot in Utah, his campaign says it has also gathered enough signatures in .听A pro-Kennedy super PAC, American 海角大神 2024, claims to have enough signatures in 听as well.听But that Mr. Kennedy鈥檚 signatures in Nevada may be ruled invalid because he did not list a vice president on the petition forms, which the Kennedy campaign criticized as collusion between the state鈥檚 Democratic secretary of state and the DNC.
鈥淥ur strategy will be twofold: We鈥檙e going to make sure everyone is playing by the rules, and we鈥檙e going to make sure voters are educated,鈥� says DNC spokesperson Matt Corridoni. 鈥淓specially when it comes to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. being funded by MAGA donors to be a stalking horse for Donald Trump.鈥� Mr. Corridoni is part of the Democrats鈥� new Kennedy-focused team alongside veteran Democratic strategist Lis Smith. 鈥淲e鈥檙e not taking anything for granted this election cycle, and that鈥檚 why we鈥檙e putting wheels in motion now,鈥� he adds.听
Democrats don鈥檛 have to look that far back in history for third-party 鈥渟poiler鈥� examples. In 2000, Green Party candidate Ralph Nadar won over 97,000 votes in Florida while Democratic candidate Al Gore lost Florida, and thereby the election, by fewer than 550 votes to Republican candidate George W. Bush.
And then there was 2016.
In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, three 鈥渂lue wall鈥� states where Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 by slim margins, Jill Stein, whose Green Party typically attracts more left-leaning voters, earned far more votes than Ms. Clinton鈥檚 losing margin. And in these same states, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson earned even more.
鈥淕oing back to 2016, and if you鈥檙e asking me things I regret, one of them is not taking Jill Stein more seriously,鈥� says Pat Dennis, president of the Democratic opposition research group American Bridge. He says his team has been 鈥渨orking in the background鈥� to make it harder for No Labels to find a candidate.
Of course, it鈥檚 impossible to know for sure that Ms. Clinton would have benefited in these critical states had Ms. Stein or Mr. Johnson not been in the race. The same could be true this November. If Democrats are successful in siphoning off support from Mr. Kennedy, it鈥檚 far from certain that those voters would all flock to Mr. Biden. Some of these third-party voters could vote for Mr. Trump instead, or the Green Party or Libertarian nominees, or another independent candidate such as Cornel West. Or they could just stay home and not vote at all.听
鈥淭he Democrats are paranoid, but the truth is that there is no way to tell where [votes] are going to come from,鈥� says Bernard Tamas, associate professor at Valdosta State University and author of the book 鈥淭he Demise and Rebirth of American Third Parties.鈥�
鈥淪omeone like Kennedy, there is no way to know who they are going to hurt more.鈥�
Which is partially a factor of Mr. Kennedy鈥檚 politics. A member of America鈥檚 most famous Democratic family and a former environmental lawyer who covered the dangers of growing mercury levels in fish, Mr. Kennedy has since become a leading voice in what he calls the 鈥渧accine safety鈥� movement, which has only grown louder since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Along with vaccines and public health, his campaign, which has largely communicated to voters through popular podcasts, has also focused on free speech and environmental protection. All of which has helped him build a base of supporters from the left and the right, as American voters face a general election rematch of two of the oldest, most-disliked candidates ever.
鈥淰oters are looking for a fresh alternative, and Mr. Kennedy is providing it,鈥� says Stefanie Spear, press secretary for the Kennedy campaign. 鈥淢r. Kennedy plans to take votes from both President Biden and former President Trump.鈥澨�
The 鈥渂iggest threat鈥� to democracy
Democrats, however, feel strongly that third-party and independent candidates would hurt Mr. Biden more than Mr. Trump this year. That鈥檚 a theory some polls support. There鈥檚 a reason that Mr. Trump and other Republicans don鈥檛 seem as worried about Mr. Kennedy and aren鈥檛 building out the same kind of attack as the Democrats, says Jim Kessler, a co-founder of the think tank Third Way.
鈥淭he premise begins with the notion that a head-to-head matchup will favor the Democrats,鈥� says Mr. Kessler, who says that polls currently showing Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden will tighten as Election Day nears. But given that 鈥渢he hardcore supporters for Trump are more than the hardcore supporters for Biden,鈥� says Mr. Kessler, Mr. Kennedy鈥檚 candidacy would 鈥渟plinter the anti-Trump coalition.鈥�
The anti-Trump Washington class is united, however, on the issue of Mr. Kennedy and other third-party candidates, even if that means stifling outside candidates in a way that鈥檚 led the Kennedy campaign to characterize the Democratic Party as the 鈥渂iggest threat鈥� to democracy in America. Supporters say their voices 鈥� and votes 鈥� are being suppressed because they support someone outside the two-party system.听
鈥淪hould we have more political parties? Almost every political scientist I know would say yes,鈥� says Professor Tamas. 鈥淲hen you have more parties, it forces people to compromise and moderate.鈥�
But this year with Mr. Trump on the ballot, say Democrats, is not the time to experiment.
鈥淚 wasn鈥檛 waking up in a sweat when Ross Perot was out there,鈥� says Mr. Kessler, who admits, with a laugh, that he voted for independent candidate John Anderson in 1980. 鈥淩ight now the stakes have never been greater.鈥�
