Who鈥檚 excited for a Biden-Trump rematch? Almost no one.
It鈥檚 the rematch many Americans say they don鈥檛 want but feel powerless to prevent.
With just two primary contests held so far, the 2024 presidential campaign appears to be inexorably heading toward another Biden-Trump election, despite the public鈥檚 lack of enthusiasm for such a matchup.聽Or in some cases, outright dread.聽
鈥淲e had the 2016 face-off; we kind of survived it. Then we got through a Biden administration. ... And now we鈥檙e facing down having to decide between these two ill-fitted people again?鈥� asks Abe Ott, a rancher in Durango, Colorado, who didn鈥檛 vote in 2016 and cast his ballot for President Joe Biden in 2020. 鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to stomach. It鈥檚 like, didn鈥檛 we already do this?鈥�
Why We Wrote This
As voters begin contemplating the next nine months, many are wondering, is a Trump-Biden rematch really the best the United States could do? Here鈥檚 what the lack of enthusiasm may signal for November鈥檚 election.
Large numbers of voters like Mr. Ott have repeatedly, emphatically told pollsters that they would prefer some fresh faces on the ticket. In a December survey, a majority of voters said they would be 鈥溾�� with both President Biden and former President Donald Trump as nominees. Just last week, showed almost 2 in 3 voters agreeing that the United States 鈥渘eeds another choice鈥� besides Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden.
Yet already, the nominating contests appear to be all but over. President Biden, who has only faced minor opposition, handily won last week鈥檚 unsanctioned New Hampshire Democratic primary, where he wasn鈥檛 even on the ballot, and is poised to dominate in the first official Democratic primary in South Carolina this Saturday. And after former President Trump swept both Iowa and New Hampshire, nearly all his opponents, except for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, dropped out of the race and endorsed him.聽He鈥檚 set to win the upcoming Nevada caucuses, where Ms. Haley isn鈥檛 even competing, and he holds a commanding lead in her native South Carolina, where Republicans will vote Feb. 24.
鈥淚 honestly thought people had smartened up about Trump,鈥� says Patrice Noble, a real estate agent in Polk City, Iowa, who voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 and 2020 before caucusing this year for Ms. Haley. 鈥淚t blows my mind, honestly. I can鈥檛 believe it.鈥澛犅�
The situation can be blamed on a number of factors, from a primary process that elevates the preferences of a tiny slice of base voters to the fact that this campaign features the rare combination of both an incumbent president and a 鈥減seudo-incumbent鈥� who has led his supporters to believe he actually won the last election. At the same time, perhaps it鈥檚 not surprising that in an era of negative polarization 鈥� when voters increasingly say they鈥檙e voting against the other side rather than in favor of their own 鈥撀爐wo candidates with such low聽 are on track to become the major-party nominees.
A big piece of the story here is America鈥檚 two-party system, says Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University. He notes that it鈥檚 rare among democracies to have just two competitive parties, forcing voters into a binary choice.
Still, he adds, some of the fault ultimately lies with the voters themselves. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not inevitable that our system selects candidates, and voters have to pick between the worst of two evils,鈥� says Professor Grossmann. 鈥淰oters are not blameless. ... It鈥檚 been clear for a long time that enough Republican voters want Donald Trump to be renominated.鈥�
Indeed, there are definitely voters in both parties who strongly support their leading candidate. The fact that President Biden was able to win resoundingly in New Hampshire as a write-in candidate points to a certain degree of commitment from his backers. Likewise, 61% of those casting ballots in New Hampshire鈥檚 GOP primary said they鈥檇 be 鈥渟atisfied鈥� if Mr. Trump won the nomination, according to .
Many others, however, feel the process has let them down 鈥� and that it鈥檚 become too hard for less-well-known candidates to gain traction or have a realistic shot at winning.
鈥淎 Biden-Trump [rematch] shows that something is out of whack with our system, because we have two candidates who have pretty serious issues,鈥� says Scott Hansen, a technology lawyer from Irvine, California. 鈥淚 mean, this is our choice?鈥澛�
Already, both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump have transitioned to general-election messaging 鈥� a far earlier pivot than what typically occurs, setting up a marathon one-on-one battle that may wind up being . In separate events this past weekend, the two men frequently referenced one another and emphasized the stakes if the other candidate were to win.聽
To be sure, Ms. Haley is still campaigning and says she is in the race for the long haul. One of her main arguments on the stump is that the country needs a younger leader who鈥檚 at the top of their game, rather than a choice between two men who are in or approaching their 80s.聽
Yet with the former United Nations ambassador running a distant second in every upcoming GOP primary contest, many have concluded that she has no plausible path to the nomination. Leading Republicans have been urging their party to close ranks around Mr. Trump.聽
Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel, who had previously remained neutral, recently said it鈥檚 time to 鈥渦nite around our eventual nominee, which is going to be Donald Trump.鈥�
On the Democratic side, political professionals are also eager to begin the official general election campaign.
鈥淚鈥檓 glad the primary is over,鈥� says Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster who worked for the Biden campaign in 2020. 鈥淲hen you have a clear contest between Trump and Biden 鈥� and everyone can stop asking themselves, 鈥業s someone else going to run? Is someone else going to run?鈥� 鈥� you have a place where Biden can emerge as the leader.鈥�
Still, there are risks in selecting nominees who don鈥檛 excite most voters. One is that many Americans will simply tune out the campaign and decline to vote. Although the 2020 general election had the highest rate of voter turnout since 1960, all three previous 鈥渞ematch鈥� elections in U.S. history recorded lower turnout .
There also could be a stronger-than-usual third-party vote. More than half of all voters in聽 said they would consider backing an 鈥渋ndependent moderate candidate鈥� if confronted with a Biden-Trump rematch. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who comes from one of the Democratic Party鈥檚 most famous families but is running for president as an independent, is garnering between 聽of the vote in polls. West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat who鈥檚 not running for Senate reelection, has 聽a possible independent presidential run.
Given the narrow margins in several battleground states last time around, even a small third-party vote could prove consequential.
鈥淚f it comes down to Biden-Trump, I just won鈥檛 vote, or I鈥檒l vote third party,鈥� says Anna Noble, Patrice Noble鈥檚 daughter. A high school senior who plans to attend Iowa State University in the fall, Ms. Noble caucused for Ms. Haley alongside her mother and was disappointed when Mr. Trump won her caucus site. She鈥檚 not a fan of Mr. Biden, either.
鈥淭rump is just in it for himself, and I don鈥檛 think Biden is capable,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t just makes me way less enthusiastic.鈥�
For now, some voters say they鈥檙e clinging to hope that something, anything, will happen to shake things up before November. Didn鈥檛 Mr. Biden promise to be a 鈥渂ridge鈥� candidate last time around? What if he surprises everyone and decides to step down? Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is facing 91 indictments across four criminal cases. What if he鈥檚 convicted? Maybe someone else will have to step in.聽
Mr. Ott, the Colorado rancher, says he would consider voting for a third-party candidate if one actually seemed viable. But more likely, he predicts, he鈥檒l hold his nose and vote for Mr. Biden to oppose another Trump presidency.聽鈥淚 feel more of a sense of resignation than hope,鈥� he says.聽
