海角大神

Out of crisis, opportunity. For President Joe Biden, that saying may well capture the moment, as he prepares to deliver his State of the Union address Tuesday night.

After decades in politics, President Biden is positioned to deliver the speech of a lifetime. The eyes of the world will be upon him, as the United States rallies the Western alliance to stand up to Russia鈥檚 invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 announcement Sunday that his nation鈥檚 nuclear forces had been put on high alert only underscores the gravity of the moment.聽聽

The unfolding crisis abroad has, for now, dramatically upended the political environment at home. Mr. Biden鈥檚 domestic challenges, which have been weighing down his approval ratings, are likely to take a back seat when he goes before the cameras at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

Those challenges remain considerable: Inflation is at a 40-year high; his climate agenda has stalled, as the United Nations delivers ;聽and American democracy is under enormous stress amid deep partisan polarization.聽

鈥淎t first blush, it鈥檚 like, oh boy, not a great time to give a State of the Union,鈥� says Peter Fenn, a veteran Democratic strategist. 鈥淏ut on second blush, the issues are so momentous, the timing is so right for a really serious address to the nation.鈥澛�

One unexpected bright spot: The pandemic, which has driven or compounded many of those challenges, appears to be waning, at least for now.聽Masks are now optional inside the Capitol building, and all members may attend the president鈥檚 speech 鈥� providing viewers with a visual reminder that the nation may be returning to some form of normal.聽

But the return of fencing around the Capitol 鈥� which went up after the Jan. 6 riot last year and has periodically been reinstalled when security threats arise 鈥� serves as a reminder that 鈥渘ormal鈥� is a relative term.聽

Overall, with independent Ukraine facing an existential threat, amid the biggest security crisis in Europe since World War II, U.S. domestic matters have largely receded from the news.聽

In the short term, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is providing fertile ground for bipartisan consensus, with Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress agreeing on a Ukrainian assistance package and sanctions against Russia and Mr. Putin.聽

Still, the GOP鈥檚 dominant figure, former President Donald Trump, has continued to praise Mr. Putin, calling him 鈥渟mart鈥� even while condemning the Ukraine invasion. In a speech Saturday, the former president saved his harshest criticism for President Biden.聽

鈥淧utin is playing Biden like a drum, and it鈥檚 not a pretty thing to watch,鈥� Mr. Trump told the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, Florida.

But it鈥檚 Mr. Biden who has the bigger megaphone.聽

鈥淭he circumstances of the moment give him a bully pulpit, and this doesn鈥檛 happen all that often,鈥� says Russell Riley, co-chair of the Presidential Oral History Program at the University of Virginia鈥檚 Miller Center.聽鈥淚f you鈥檙e looking for pivot moments in a presidency that鈥檚 had its share of difficulties, this creates the predicate for that kind of historic moment.鈥澛�

In the not-so-distant past, another Democratic president delivered his State of the Union at a time of crisis, though of a personal nature, and turned it to his advantage. In 1998, fresh off revelations that President Bill Clinton had had an affair with an intern, he delivered a bravura performance. His approval rating in the Gallup Poll jumped 10 points.聽

鈥淓verybody was saying, 鈥楾his is terrible timing,鈥欌�� says Professor Riley. 鈥淗e went to the well of the chamber and delivered an address with a lot of substance that actually sort of saved his bacon.鈥�

Four-plus months after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, President George W. Bush delivered a different sort of crisis address. This State of the Union was most remembered for coining the phrase 鈥渁xis of evil,鈥� referring to governments that he said sponsored terrorism. It became one of the catchphrases of Mr. Bush鈥檚 presidency, and served to rally Americans around a 鈥渨ar on terror.鈥�

Today, Mr. Biden may not be as well positioned as either of these two past presidents to take advantage of his high-stakes moment. Both Presidents Bush and Clinton were already popular at the time of their crisis-infused speeches: Mr. Bush鈥檚 approval ratings had soared to 90% after the 9/11 attacks and were still hovering in the mid-80s; Mr. Clinton, bolstered by a strong economy that included a budget surplus, was at a respectable 59%.聽

Mr. Biden, by contrast, has garnered dismal numbers of late. The most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll shows him with a career-low 37% job approval, with low ratings on his handling of the economy, the Ukraine invasion, and overall leadership.

Still, on domestic matters there are points he is expected to highlight: The spike in pandemic caseloads from the omicron variant has receded. Most mask mandates have been lifted, or soon will be. Most schools have reopened.聽

Another applause point, at least for Democrats, will be the expected mention of his Supreme Court nominee, Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman to be so honored.聽

The biggest point of unity may well emerge around Ukraine, where President Volodymyr Zelenskyy鈥檚 leadership under fire has won him global praise. Mr. Biden can be expected to tout President Zelenskyy鈥檚 bravery Tuesday night and double down on U.S. efforts to help Ukraine with both humanitarian and military assistance.聽

鈥淛oe Biden has the opportunity to stand in front of the nation and unite us, as a wartime political leader,鈥� says Jennifer Mercieca, a historian of American political rhetoric聽at Texas A&M University. 鈥淗e should be able to convince us that American actions aiding Ukraine are justified and in our interest.鈥�

On matters of war, she notes, there can be a 鈥渞ally around the flag鈥� effect 鈥� at least in the beginning. The chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last August, after 20 years, contributed to Mr. Biden鈥檚 decline in the polls.

The president also has a story to tell on the domestic front, she says 鈥� including his efforts to combat the pandemic, provide relief to everyday Americans, and implement the bipartisan infrastructure plan. Still, she adds, American trust in government has been on the decline, and it鈥檚 possible his message will fail to move the needle.聽

Changing the narrative of a president juggling several major crises simultaneously is no easy task, ahead of crucial midterm elections.聽

鈥淭his is a big speech 鈥� a big opportunity, and a lot of risk,鈥� Professor Mercieca says.