鈥楾wo different sides of a coin.鈥� Manchin, Sinema, and Democrats鈥� future
| Washington
In news clips and 鈥淪aturday Night Live鈥� skits, Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are often lumped together: two centrist Democrats standing in firm opposition to progressives, as they wrangle over the scope of President Joe Biden鈥檚 Build Back Better Act.聽
But 鈥淢anchinema,鈥� as the two have been dubbed, aren鈥檛 exactly a united front. Not only are the senators different on a personal level 鈥� one鈥檚 a folksy former coal executive from West Virginia, the other an idiosyncratic ex-Green Party activist from Arizona 鈥� but they also appear to have different legislative priorities.聽
Which has made Democrats鈥� efforts to negotiate a compromise even .
Why We Wrote This
If West Virginia represents the Democratic Party of the past, Arizona might represent its future. Can the White House find a compromise that appeals to both rural voters who鈥檝e been fleeing their party and college-educated suburbanites who are shifting left?
The White House met privately with both Senators Manchin and Sinema on Tuesday, and details about likely cuts and changes to the bill have begun to emerge, driven in large part by those two lawmakers鈥� respective demands.
From the start, Mr. Manchin has indicated opposition to many of the proposed climate change provisions, such as a clean electricity program or a carbon tax, both of which now appear unlikely to make it into the final bill. He鈥檚 expressed support for targeted spending that benefits low-income Americans, but not for free community college, another provision that is reportedly being axed. On the revenue side, he favors tax-rate increases for wealthy Americans and corporations, and he has publicly said he thinks Medicare should be allowed to .
Ms. Sinema has been far more tight-lipped. have indicated, however, that she is parts of the bill, such as higher corporate and income taxes. She鈥檚 also reportedly聽 about the prescription drug pricing proposal. But the senator鈥檚 office a recent that she was seeking to sharply cut climate measures as 鈥渇lat wrong.鈥� In an interview last month with The Arizona Republic, she detailed myriad ways in which 鈥渁 changing climate costs Arizonans,鈥� saying she viewed the budget bill as a chance to address the issue.
These differing priorities in some ways reflect the politics of their respective states and electorates. Mr. Manchin represents a shrinking group of mostly rural, white voters without college degrees 鈥� many of whom have left the Democratic Party for the GOP. Ms. Sinema, on the other hand, hails from a fast-growing state where the Democratic Party is gaining converts, as formerly Republican suburbs outside booming cities like Phoenix turn blue. Put another way, if West Virginia represents the Democratic Party of the past, Arizona might represent its future. And the recent wrangling over Mr. Biden鈥檚 agenda can be seen as a high-wire effort to bridge those divides.
鈥淲est Virginia and Arizona are two different sides of a coin,鈥� says Steven Allan Adams, a West Virginia state government reporter and former communications specialist for the West Virginia Senate.聽
鈥淚n Arizona you see a state that is known for being the birthplace of conservatives, but in the last couple years it has gone more of a purple, and maybe in the next few years it will be blue,鈥� he says. 鈥淲est Virginia is the opposite of that.鈥�
In West Virginia, last Democrat standing
Party leaders have given themselves a deadline of the end of the month to come up with a framework that will satisfy both progressives and moderates. Democrats are planning to pass the Build Back Better Act using a process called budget reconciliation, which allows them to avoid a GOP filibuster in the Senate. With just 50 Democrats in that chamber, the party cannot afford to lose even one vote, which means both Mr. Manchin and Ms. Sinema (along with every other Democratic senator) will need to be on board.
But alleviating the different concerns of those two lawmakers has not been easy. And while some of their objections have been attributed to the senators鈥� own ideological views 鈥� or, more cynically, 鈥� much of it also clearly reflects attitudes in their home states.聽
West Virginia was one of only three states in the nation that saw its over the past 10 years; it will lose one of its U.S. House seats in redistricting this year. The state capital of Charleston was the country鈥檚 in the 2020 census.聽
The Democratic Party in West Virginia has been shrinking even faster, with registered Republicans now outnumbering registered Democrats. Considered reliably Democratic only a few decades ago, the Mountain State has now become just as reliably Republican. In 2020 then-President Donald Trump won there with 聽of the vote 鈥� his second-largest margin in any state.聽聽
鈥淚t鈥檚 a depressing time to be a Democratic leader in West Virginia,鈥� says John Kilwein, chair of the West Virginia University department of political science.聽
Mr. Manchin, West Virginia鈥檚 only remaining statewide elected Democrat, won reelection to a second term in 2018 by only 3 percentage points, helped in part by an unpopular Republican opponent.
鈥淭he state is moving so red around Joe Manchin that [2024] is going to be a tough battle for him,鈥� says Mr. Kilwein. Still, he suggests that all the attention the senator has received for bucking his own party on the budget bill may be helpful at home.
Mr. Manchin鈥檚 reported opposition to many of the package鈥檚 climate change programs runs contrary to the almost 聽of national Democrats who call it a 鈥渧ery important鈥� voting issue. But it makes sense coming from a state that has a long history with coal mining.聽
鈥淔rom a strategic point of view, I think this is the best way Manchin could handle [reconciliation bill negotiations] if he鈥檚 trying to get reelected,鈥� Mr. Kilwein says.
The West Virginia senator鈥檚 approval rating fell a few points in a recent poll of likely voters ,聽but the percentage of West Virginians who disapprove of Mr. Manchin has also decreased, from 44% to 37%.聽
Even if some West Virginia Democrats are unhappy with Mr. Manchin鈥檚 stance, most likely understand that he represents their only realistic option for holding the seat.
鈥淚f you鈥檙e still a Democrat in West Virginia, you鈥檙e probably very liberal, but you鈥檙e also probably pretty practical and you understand that Manchin is probably your only choice,鈥� says Bob Shrum, a veteran Democratic strategist and director of the University of Southern California鈥檚 Dornsife Center for the Political Future.聽
Democrats growing in fast-growing state
Unlike West Virginia, Arizona saw its population grow by almost 12% over the past decade, with two of the nation鈥檚 fastest-growing cities in the 2020 census. The population of Buckeye, a suburb of Phoenix, increased by almost 57%.聽
And Arizona鈥檚 Democratic Party has grown simultaneously. The number of registered Republicans still outnumbers registered Democrats statewide, but Democrats have added聽聽in the past two years than the GOP. For the first time in almost seven decades, Arizona has two Democratic senators: Ms. Sinema and former astronaut Mark Kelly, who won a special election in 2020.
As the state shifts left, there are signs that Ms. Sinema鈥檚 opposition to some progressive priorities could land her a primary challenger in 2024: A Primary Sinema PAC has already been created to help fund an opponent.聽A recent poll of likely Democratic voters in Arizona found Ms. Sinema鈥檚 approval rating to be a , while 85% approved of Mr. Biden and Senator Kelly.
鈥淧eople here are frustrated with her,鈥� says Matt Grodsky, an Arizona-based political strategist and former director of communications for the Arizona Democratic Party. 鈥淪he鈥檚 at odds with what commonsense Arizona voters are thinking.鈥澛�
Coming from one of the nation鈥檚 hottest and driest states,聽Ms. Sinema has in the past expressed support for climate change measures, though she hasn鈥檛 revealed where she stands on the current proposals.
鈥淰oters in Arizona really do support those types of investments toward a green energy economy,鈥� says Tony Cani, an Arizona political strategist and former deputy director of Biden for Arizona. 鈥淭here are signs that a number of companies and innovators are coming to this state to set up shop.鈥�
But some Democratic critics believe she鈥檚 underestimated levels of support back home for certain social programs.
Prescription drug pricing reform, for example, polls well with all voters, not just Democrats. According to one survey, more than of adults nationwide favor allowing the government to negotiate with drug companies to lower prescription drug prices.聽Critics counter that it could hinder pharmaceutical companies鈥� ability to develop and bring new drugs to market.聽
鈥淧olitically, Manchin鈥檚 actions are more defensible given the state he represents and his political profile,鈥� says Democratic strategist Joel Payne. 鈥淪inema doesn鈥檛 have the same rationale to lean on. Her quixotic approach is less palatable to her base and leaves them wondering, 鈥榃hy are you throwing sand in the gears?鈥欌��
Ms. Sinema鈥檚 strongest reservations appear to be on the revenue side. for both individuals and large corporations, which critics say could hurt American businesses鈥� global competitiveness.
That stance may make sense coming from a state with such conservative roots, and which has grown in part by luring workers from neighboring high-tax California. This year, Arizona鈥檚 GOP-led State Legislature passed sweeping income tax cuts, moving the state from a progressive system to two flat rates.聽Still, the issue is contentious: The new cuts were in response to a ballot measure passed by voters in 2020 to raise taxes on Arizonans making over $250,000 per year.聽Activists are gathering signatures to try to block the law from taking effect.
Critics point out that Ms. Sinema鈥檚 fellow Arizonan, Senator Kelly, hasn鈥檛 been putting up roadblocks, suggesting a different political calculus that some see as more in tune with the fast-changing state.
Above any one program, says Mr. Cani, Arizona voters are 鈥渟uper transactional鈥� and want the government to get things done.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think she wants her brand to be 鈥業鈥檓 the one who is stopping government,鈥欌�� says Mr. Cani. 鈥淎nd that鈥檚 not who the people of Arizona want her to be.鈥�
