How pandemic snarls redistricting 鈥� and 2022 election plans
| Washington
Just once a decade America鈥檚 political boundary lines get redrawn 鈥� and this year there鈥檚 an extra plot twist.
The problem:聽The pandemic happened to coincide almost precisely with聽the census timetable for聽counting聽America鈥檚 population, which聽determines each state鈥檚 share of the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
On March 11, 2020, the same day the U.S. Census Bureau聽published a press release聽announcing that its survey of households was getting underway, the World Health Organization聽declared COVID-19 a pandemic. Not three weeks later, the Census Bureau announced that it would be聽delaying its field operations聽(a vital part of the process in which census workers follow up with hard-to-reach communities) to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
Why We Wrote This
Census delays are creating hurdles this year for steps that are basic democracy: drawing new political maps, vetting their fairness in courts, and giving potential candidates time to mobilize for the next election.
At an already fraught time, amid deep political rifts and with control of Congress closely divided, the coronavirus pandemic is severely delaying the arrival of new population data to the states. The result could be delays in drawing district maps, potentially threatening normal routines such as candidates deciding to enter primary races for the 2022 elections.
Although the bureau eventually finished its count in the fall, it recently announced that states can expect to receive their data by the end of September 鈥� six months聽later than planned.
In some states with redistricting deadlines written into law, delay is more than just inconvenient 鈥� it鈥檚 illegal. Ohio鈥檚聽Constitution, for example, mandates that the state Legislature agree on new districts by Sept. 30, the day the data is slated for release. At least two states 鈥撀燨hio聽and聽Alabama聽鈥� have already filed lawsuits against the U.S. Census Bureau for the delay.聽
With 鈥媠tates scrambling to redraw maps聽鈥媜n a tightened calendar, the process could potentially blow past filing deadlines for congressional primaries in almost every state鈥�. W鈥媋tchdogs worry that 鈥媝oliticians will rush out 鈥媙ew maps聽drawn to favor their party,聽without鈥� the usual level of聽oversight against聽gerrymandering.
鈥淭here will be less time for challenges, and it鈥檚 likely that that will encourage some redistricting bodies to get greedy,鈥� says Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola University who has written several papers on redistricting and manages the website All About Redistricting.
While the challenges are formidable, he is hopeful states can avoid a political train wreck. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think [the delay] has to be the disaster that some people have made it out to be,鈥� says Mr. Levitt.
Loyola Law School's All About Redistricting, Wall Street Journal
Seven states gaining seats
It鈥檚 not an exaggeration to say that the nation鈥檚 constitutionally mandated population count affects virtually every aspect of Americans鈥� lives, including how more than聽聽will be distributed for things like schools, hospitals, and roads.聽
Although the detailed census data that states need for redistricting won鈥檛 be available until the fall, on April 30 the Census Bureau will confirm which states stand to gain or lose seats. And by December the bureau had already given聽聽hinting at聽what the new House makeup will look like.聽
Texas and Florida, which have seen the greatest population growth in the past decade, are expected to pick up聽. Five other states will likely gain one House district (Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon), while 10 states, including California and several in the Midwest, will likely lose a representative.
But all states (except for those with聽only聽one at-large district) must engage in redistricting, given that populations shift within a state and districts are intended to represent equivalently sized populations. And because new district maps can favor one party or the other 鈥� ultimately affecting control of Congress聽鈥撀爐he process is far from simple. Gerrymandering, the 鈥減acking or cracking鈥� of certain populations to increase one party鈥檚 chance of winning, has plagued redistricting throughout American history.
Voters鈥� understanding 鈥� and corresponding disapproval 鈥� of gerrymandering has increased in recent years, with聽. Since the last congressional maps were drawn in 2010, voters in聽聽have approved ballot measures or constitutional amendments that allow for a bipartisan commission, rather than the state legislature, to draw the districts.
鈥淭here is this spark of interest from the public that redistricting has never had in the past,鈥� says Kathay Feng, national redistricting director with the organization Common Cause.聽
鈥淚t鈥檚 not just that legislatures should do the right thing, it鈥檚 that regular people are demanding it and that鈥檚 totally different.鈥澛�
Still, citizens and outside groups have increasingly turned to the courts to rule against gerrymandering. After the 2010 census, for example, fewer than a dozen states redistricted without any legal objection to their maps. Citizens and outside groups typically have a full six months to litigate against gerrymandering, says Michael Li, senior counsel for聽the Brennan Center鈥檚 Democracy Program. This year, he predicts, the time for post-redistricting litigation has shrunk to two or three months.
鈥淟itigation about maps is sometimes the only way you get fair maps,鈥� says Mr. Li. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a much shorter time period [this year], which means it鈥檚 much more likely that discriminatory things are left in place for the 2022 election.鈥�
The view from Texas鈥� 6th District
That is, if 2022 congressional elections can even happen on time.聽
According to the Monitor鈥檚 count, the redistricting process took an average of 13 months following the 2010 census. States will have to beat that average this year, once the data arrive on聽, or the map-drawing process will surpass the primary election filing deadlines for congressional elections in all but three states.
And until they know the new maps, local party officials and organizers don鈥檛 know where to focus their resources.
If Texas鈥� 6th Congressional District, for example, an area south of Fort Worth and Dallas that currently looks like a bottom-heavy number 8, is drawn to include more of the cities鈥� suburbs, Democrats will have a fighting chance, says Kelly Blackburn, Democratic Party chair for Ellis County, Texas.聽
鈥淏ut everything is at a standstill,鈥� says Ms. Blackburn.
Politicians or potential candidates can鈥檛 launch campaigns if they don鈥檛 know what district they will represent.聽
鈥淚t creates a lot of uncertainty, especially knowing how precisely we expect them to gerrymander,鈥� says Amanda Litman, executive director of Run for Something, an organization that helps young progressives run for office. 鈥淵our side of the street could be cut out of the district you are planning to run in.鈥�
And that creates a ripple effect for down-ballot races. First-time candidates may consider running for state representative, for example, if they know that their current state representative is planning on running for a congressional seat instead.
鈥淭he most successful first-time candidates are the ones who can start 18 months out,鈥� says Ms. Litman. 鈥淭he only resource in a campaign you can never get back is time.鈥�
States could 鈥� and should 鈥� get a head start on mocking up potential district maps without the final data, say experts. In its press release announcing the delay, the Census Bureau suggested states could 鈥溾�� their new districts with census data published in the past two years.聽
And among the states with redistricting deadlines by law, officials should proactively ask local courts for a delay, says Mr. Levitt. California officials, for example, already appealed to the state鈥檚 Supreme Court and were granted an extension. And as several did for COVID-19, states should consider moving their primary filing deadlines.
Getting it right?
Even before COVID-19, last year鈥檚 count was challenging for the Census Bureau. The 2020 count featured the bureau鈥檚 first attempt at a primarily digital census, and the Trump administration鈥檚 failed attempts to include a citizenship question taxed the bureau鈥檚 staff and resources.聽
But COVID-19 jeopardized the fundamental purpose of the decennial census: to document where and how Americans live.聽
鈥淐ollege students moved back in with their parents; older kids moved in with the grandparents to take care of them,鈥� says Ms. Feng with Common Cause. 鈥淎ll these different living situations mean that even when the bureau could restart their field operations, they weren鈥檛 looking at living conditions that one might normally be in.鈥澛�
Which is why several redistricting experts say the data delay, while stressful, isn鈥檛 inherently bad. The delay ensures that the Census Bureau will do the best count possible by double-checking against duplicates. So given the circumstances, the delay is a 鈥渧ery, very positive thing,鈥� says Mr. Levitt.聽
鈥淲hen you take a picture of [the U.S. in] April 2020, that picture looks very odd,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not clear how much the delay can fix that picture, but it means they are giving it a shot.鈥�
