A new stage in the pandemic: Cautious optimism
| Cincinnati; Alexandria, Va.; Santa Clarita, Calif.; and Brunswick, Ga.
Like many Americans, Anthony Kellum is ready for the pandemic to be over. The Detroit-area real estate developer just wants to do usual things from his old life 鈥� attend baseball games, visit movie theaters, go out to dinner.
And he鈥檚 increasingly confident the usual may be within sight. Some extended family members, whom he largely hasn鈥檛 visited over the past year, have been vaccinated. He鈥檚 eager to be vaccinated himself, and he and his wife, Doreen, are optimistic enough that they鈥檝e tentatively planned a summer family vacation.
鈥淚 just want to get back to normal,鈥� he says.
Why We Wrote This
America鈥檚 experience with the coronavirus has been like a roller coaster, with spikes followed by plummets followed by spikes again. But the current decline could be something different: a light at the end of the tunnel.
But not everyone is sure the country has reached a COVID-19 inflection point. Vaccines aren鈥檛 yet available to everyone. Case counts have dived before, only to rise again. New variants are a possible danger.聽
The U.S. recently passed the grim milestone of over 500,000 total deaths. And damage to the economy has taken a personal toll. Raemecca Evans lost her Cincinnati restaurant job early in the pandemic. She鈥檚 been unemployed since. 鈥淣ormal鈥� will mean going back to work, she says.
鈥淚 mean, it鈥檚 gotten better,鈥� says Ms. Evans of the pandemic. But 鈥渋t鈥檚 kind of touch-and-go, to me.鈥�
Nearly one year after much of the nation abruptly shut down due to a little-understood virus, turning face masks into common attire and dousing the fires of the world鈥檚 largest economy, something new is emerging in America: a sense of cautious optimism.
The U.S. appears to be coming closer to control of the pandemic following a bleak winter, they say. But many experts warn that vigilance will still be necessary in the future.聽
鈥淚 think we are at the beginning of the end, but not the end that everybody鈥檚 hoping for,鈥� says Kenneth Bernard, an epidemiologist who ran the office on global health threats in the Clinton and second Bush White Houses.
A remarkable turnaround
The raw numbers have undergone a remarkable turnaround. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the peaked in early January at about 250,000 per day. As of late February, the rolling average had dropped to around 54,000 cases per day 鈥� its lowest level since mid-October.聽
Deaths, which typically lag cases, have not fallen as fast. The seven-day rolling average of U.S. deaths was about 2,000 in late February, down from January鈥檚 peak of about 3,400, .
A number of interrelated factors have likely caused this decline, says Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association.
One is the passing of the holiday spikes caused by gatherings over Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year鈥檚. Another is a possible increase in wearing masks and adhering to social distancing, driven by the public鈥檚 realization that cases had risen to a very high level.
Since late December, the number of new cases among nursing home residents has fallen by 80%, coinciding with a vaccine rollout. That鈥檚 a much faster drop in cases than that experienced by the country as a whole.
Finally, the sheer number of Americans who have already had COVID-19 may be reducing the ability of the virus to spread in the general population, says Dr. Benjamin. While vaccinations have, as of late February, reached nearly 13% of the U.S. population, a much larger number of Americans, upwards of 35%, is estimated to have caught the virus at some point and developed resistance to a new infection.
Over the past year, America鈥檚 experience with the coronavirus has been like a roller coaster: spikes in caseloads, followed by plummets amid a tightening of restrictions. Then, as restrictions have eased, another rise.
That could happen again. America has a tendency to ease restrictions too soon, and shouldn鈥檛 repeat that mistake, says Dr. Benjamin.
But the more likely scenario is that the country is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, he says. Public health authorities have a better handle on what kind of restrictions work. Medical facilities have a better understanding of the virus and treatments. The percentage of the population that has been vaccinated is quickly increasing.聽
鈥淓verything that we鈥檙e doing is finally working and kicking in,鈥� Dr. Benjamin says.
From fear to hope in California
This late-winter turnaround has produced shoots of hope, which have been especially welcome in regions that have had severe outbreaks, such as Los Angeles.
In California, all the trend lines are moving in the right direction, according to some health officials. 鈥淲e鈥檝e come to the other side of this terrible surge,鈥� declared Los Angeles County health director Barbara Ferrer this week.
Ms. Ferrer is cautiously optimistic about the future. , as coronavirus cases have fallen below the cutoff limits set in state health and safety guidelines.
Parents in Santa Clarita, a sprawling suburb in the north part of the county, are excited that in-person school resumed this week at Mountainview Elementary. The school is on a hybrid schedule, and is bringing in different grades over the next two weeks.
鈥淚 can feel we have turned a corner,鈥� says Mandy Meeks from her black Jeep Cherokee, after dropping off her second grader, Jamison. School is one sign. Business is another, she says. As a restaurant manager, Ms. Meeks anticipates limited indoor dining will soon be added to outdoor dining.
Mark Kavin, parent of a first grader at Mountainview, is 鈥渉appy to have some normalcy,鈥� he says. He and his wife, who both work full time, had to bring in a babysitter to help their daughter with school via Zoom.
The pandemic is headed in the right direction, says Mr. Kavin, citing vaccines. But he figures 鈥渕asks will be here for years to come.鈥�
What does 鈥渙ver鈥� mean?
Given current trends, when will the pandemic be over? In the context of the coronavirus, what does the word 鈥渙ver鈥� even mean?聽
If 鈥渙ver鈥� is defined as the date when vaccines will be so widely available that anyone who wants one will have easy access, the time is fast approaching 鈥� perhaps faster than many people think. White House adviser .
But there are many variables that could affect projections of when the risk of infections will fade.聽Dr. Benjamin notes that America is not an island. Many low-income countries have not started vaccinating yet, and their relatively higher number of new cases could increase the chances of a dangerous variant of the disease emerging.聽
鈥淲e all want it to be over. And I think the news looks good,鈥� says Dr. Bernard. 鈥淏ut news changes and I think we need to be careful.鈥澛�
鈥淚鈥檓 going to head out this weekend鈥�
No pandemic end is in sight, if 鈥渙ver鈥� means forgotten. The coronavirus has been an overarching presence in a year that ranks as among the most tumultuous in American social and political history. It will be inextricably linked in memory with the protests of the Black Lives Matter movement, the stark partisanship of the 2020 presidential election, and the Jan. 6 storming of the U.S. Capitol by a mob seeking to overturn that vote.
Brunswick, Georgia, is a long way from Washington, D.C. But Brunswick saw its own somber anniversary pass this week, one that coincides with the beginnings of the pandemic: the death in February of last year of a local runner, Ahmaud Arbery, a Black man who was killed by three white vigilantes who falsely believed he had committed a crime.聽
For local resident Keion Walthour, that spasm of racial violence began a cycle of fear and dislocation that was then exacerbated by a virus that ripped through Georgia鈥檚 minority communities at disproportionate rates.
Social circles, says Mr. Walthour, have been broken up. Distancing and masks have hampered relationships and family events. And life, in many respects, has dwindled to a lot of time spent on the front stoop of his small house near a paper mill, entertaining a smattering of friends in the open air.聽
Mr. Walthour had heard news reports that infection and death rates were falling across the country, perhaps auguring a return to normal. As a result, he has begun turning daydreams of travel into plans, for the first time in a year.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a change,鈥� he says. 鈥淚鈥檝e lived in fear for a long time. But I鈥檓 going to head out this weekend. I鈥檓 not thinking of going to New York or anything, nothing too far. Maybe Jacksonville, hit some of my favorite eating places.鈥�
He chuckles, 鈥淎t this point, anywhere but Brunswick.鈥�
This article was written by Peter Grier with reporting by Nick Roll in Cincinnati, Noah Robertson in Alexandria, Virginia, Francine Kiefer in聽Santa Clarita, California, and Patrik Jonsson in Brunswick, Georgia.
