Georgia runoffs: Control of US Senate hinges on a shifting South
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Patrik Jonsson Staff writer
| Savannah, Ga.
From where he sits in front of his father鈥檚 Savannah Gardens home, independent voter Lawrence Leach can detail the economic devastation from the coronavirus crisis.
That house on the corner? That woman lost her job. Across the street? Her, too. And the next street over? At least two of his friends are out of work and struggling to pay the bills.
The pandemic and an economic downturn had an impact on his own bottom line, too, since people can no longer afford his modestly priced lawn-mowing services.
Why We Wrote This
In the heart of the South, Georgia has become a state of striking diversity. Now runoffs in the hands of its shifting electorate will determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Looking in part for leadership to 鈥渟quash the virus,鈥� Mr. Leach, a computer technician by trade and landscaper by necessity, became one of thousands of Black voters in Atlanta and Savannah to swing the state to a Democrat 鈥� Joe Biden 鈥� for the first time in nearly 30 years. With President-elect Biden ahead by more than 14,000 votes in the state, Georgia鈥檚 secretary of State announced a hand recount of the presidential votes.
A long-term push by Democrats to turn Georgia blue now sets up a throwdown fight for the control of the U.S. Senate, as the state prepares to hold two senatorial runoffs on Jan. 5.聽
鈥淚 did not dislike Donald Trump,鈥� says Mr. Leach, who appreciates what he calls the president鈥檚 muscular foreign policy. 鈥淏ut finally I couldn鈥檛 take the disunity.鈥�
As Georgia is suddenly on everyone鈥檚 mind, he takes a second to bask in his home state鈥檚 largely unforeseen appearance at a historic crossroads of American politics.
鈥淢akes me proud,鈥� he says.
Georgia鈥檚 winding journey to the main stage reflects the evolution of a center-right state under full Republican control to one with an increasingly diverse and energized electorate. It鈥檚 becoming an up-for-grabs crucible of a changing South.
Republicans are seen by many as having an edge in the runoff campaign, since it won鈥檛 feature the Trump-Biden matchup that fueled turnout in the general election. But as the nation focuses its attention 鈥� and political dollars 鈥� on this state in coming weeks, Georgia offers a glimpse into how demography may be less destiny than opportunity, and how empowered electorates can turn single-party states into dynamos of democracy.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 like the term 鈥榗hange,鈥� because then you almost negate or belittle native Georgians, as if we need to change what Georgia is,鈥� says Tammy Greer, a political scientist at Clark Atlanta University, who has studied Georgia鈥檚 political shift for the past 12 years. 鈥淚 prefer to say 鈥榚nhance鈥� what is already here in Georgia. When you do that, you bring more people into the fold instead of pushing them away. That鈥檚 when you see that people in urban areas really care about the people in the rural areas, because they literally have the same concerns 鈥� and are both sometimes neglected.鈥澛�
The runoff races are occurring because Georgia is a rare state that requires at least 50% of votes to claim victory. Two Democrats 鈥� the Rev. Raphael Warnock and the documentarian Jon Ossoff 鈥� will on Jan. 5 face off against Republican incumbents, who are businesspeople: investment guru Kelly Loeffler and former Dollar General CEO David Perdue.
鈥淎ll eyes are on Georgia,鈥� says Emory University political scientist Andra Gillespie.
A Peach State evolution
With 10 million people and 16 electoral votes, the Peach State is a study in contrasts. It was once a pioneer in an industrializing New South. Today, it hints at a possible 鈥淏lue South.鈥澛�
Singular among the Deep South states, the former 13th Colony was founded on debtors鈥� prison reform. But an early ban on slavery faded quickly, allowing the state to become defined by human bondage and its violent aftermath. Native son Martin Luther King Jr. provided a bookend with his epic battle for racial inclusion. (Mr. Warnock now heads King鈥檚 former church, Ebenezer Baptist Church, in Atlanta鈥檚 Old Fourth Ward.)聽
Georgia鈥檚 modern diversity is striking. Hip-hop artist Future hails from from Atlanta鈥檚 east side, and country artist聽Luke Bryan from rural Leesburg. Global refugees flock to Clarkston, Koreans and Vietnamese to Doraville, and Latinos to, well, just about everywhere. A triumvirate of historically black colleges anchor Atlanta, a global city led primarily by African Americans. Some call it 鈥淲akanda鈥� after the utopian city in the movie 鈥淏lack Panther.鈥�
White voters in Georgia have declined from nearly 8 in 10 in the Clinton years to 6 in 10 today. Losing margins for Democrats in statewide races went from 10 in 2012 to 5 in 2016 to 1.5 in 2018, a tide that finally crested this year for Mr. Biden, who is up by less than a percentage point heading into the recount.
Still, state-level politics remain led by largely rural white politicians 鈥� Republicans who superseded the Southern Democrats who long held sway.
Republicans control the governorship and both legislative houses, a trifecta that Democrats mistakenly believed they might crack in 2020. That fact alone puts a damper on the hope of using Georgia to build a Democratic trifecta in Washington.
鈥淲hile we lost the presidency ... Republican values and positions on policy were actually ratified by the voters,鈥� says GOP operative Eric Tanenblatt. 鈥淎nd if anything I think that in Georgia we鈥檙e still a center-right state.鈥� The Democrats in the race, he believes, 鈥渄on鈥檛 match up or align with Georgia values.鈥澛�
Amid the demographic changes, Mr. Tanenblatt says that in many ways the state lives up to its motto, 鈥淲isdom, justice, moderation.鈥�
鈥淚 disagree about Georgia being conservative, because there are many policies in Georgia that liberals agree with, yet the [policies] come from conservatives,鈥� agrees Ms. Greer at Clark Atlanta. 鈥淚f there were more political participation you would have ... a very centered Georgia when it comes both policies and politics 鈥� particularly political rhetoric.鈥�
Stacey Abrams鈥� role
Ms. Gillespie at Emory says the Georgia results can鈥檛 be explained without a bold mention of Stacey Abrams and her 2018 gubernatorial candidacy.聽
After narrowly losing her 2018 race without conceding, Ms. Abrams, a Yale-educated lawyer, turned up the volume on her Fair Fight organization, activating about 100,000 new voters. Her efforts reverberated nationally. Democrats in the battleground state of Wisconsin, which Mr. Biden won decisively after Mr. Trump鈥檚 victory there in 2016, credited Ms. Abrams for her voter protection initiatives.聽
In remarks to the progressive group Frontline ahead of last week鈥檚 election, Ms. Abrams compared Democrats chasing Georgia to 鈥淟ucy and the football with Charlie Brown: Why bother because it鈥檚 never going to happen?鈥�
The solution was to try harder, she told attendees: 鈥淲e will dream bigger than they think our imaginations can contain.鈥澛�
Defying rules of thumb here, Mr. Biden squeaked through with less than 30% of the white vote in Georgia. In counties like Clayton County, which put Mr. Biden over the top early Friday morning, the memory of the late civil rights leader John Lewis, who frequently feuded with President Trump, played a role for at least some voters.聽
Echoes of 1992
The last time Georgia stood at the center of U.S. politics was 1992. That year, too, a presidential race roiled the political stakes.聽
In the weeks after Bill Clinton clinched Georgia鈥檚 electoral votes, state Senate Minority Leader Paul Coverdell faced a U.S. Senate runoff. His eventual victory set the stage for subsequent GOP domination in statewide elections.
鈥淚n 1992, it鈥檚 just like what we鈥檙e experiencing now: You had an incumbent president that got defeated, and there were people very disappointed that we lost the White House,鈥� says Mr. Tanenblatt, who ran Mr. Coverdell鈥檚 campaign. 鈥淏ut the one bright hope ... was Paul Coverdell.鈥�
He recalls sending staffers to the post office with black plastic garbage bags to collect all the donation checks that poured into the race.聽
鈥淸President-elect] Clinton came, saxophone in hand. We had Charlton Heston. All eyes were on Georgia. I would imagine the same is going to happen over the next 60 days here.鈥�
This year, both of Georgia鈥檚 U.S. Senate races were toss-ups heading into the general election, according to J. Miles Coleman at Sabato鈥檚 Crystal Ball, at the University of Virginia.
Mr. Warnock and Mr. Ossoff have already campaigned together as a ticket.聽
On the Republican side, Senators Loeffler and Perdue called for Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to resign over unspecified problems with the election. Mr. Raffensperger, also a Republican, said 鈥渢hat isn鈥檛 going to happen,鈥� suggesting the candidates focus on their own races.聽
Neighboring South Carolina may be a cautionary tale for Democrats. Despite hauling in a massive amount of money to run against Sen. Lindsey Graham, Democrat Jaime Harrison fell far short.
鈥淥ne of the lessons this week was that a lot of those kind of wealthier white suburbanites who trended a bit more Democratic in the Trump era, they are not full Democratic voters yet,鈥� says Mr. Coleman. 鈥淭he attitude I鈥檝e heard from a lot of Republicans in those north Atlanta suburbs is, 鈥榃e don鈥檛 like Trump, but just give me some Republican to vote for.鈥� That鈥檚 a dynamic the Democrats are going to have to consider in the runoffs.鈥澛�
Mr. Coleman adds: 鈥淲hat may help is that Ossoff is running with a Black candidate on his ticket. That鈥檚 something that Democrats, especially in the South, have to remember: The heart and soul of the Democratic Party is not white suburban liberals, it is Blacks. We also learned from the Jaime Harrison race ... that there are two things money can鈥檛 buy: love and Senate races.鈥澛�
That leaves the governing direction of the country up to voters like Tony Brown, whiling away a few minutes on a bench in Savannah Gardens on Monday. Reveling his contribution to Mr. Biden鈥檚 victory, Mr. Brown says he looks forward to voting again on Jan. 5.
鈥淭he battle ain鈥檛 over,鈥� he says.
