鈥楾his is a good news story鈥�: Voters turn out early in historic numbers
| PENNSYLVANIA鈥橲 LACKAWANNA COUNTY AND VIRGINIA鈥橲 FAIRFAX COUNTY
Michael Drop was never a 鈥渟ign guy鈥� before this election.
Most of his neighbors in northeast Pennsylvania favored Donald Trump in 2016 鈥� and judging by this year鈥檚 signs, are enthusiastically supporting his reelection. Indeed, Mr. Drop鈥檚 home is flanked on all sides by flags and banners for Trump-Pence 2020.
But while Mr. Drop used to keep quiet about his political preferences, this year he has a new ritual.聽Every morning, the retiree and veteran gets up early to hang a Biden flag off his front porch and stake several Biden 2020 yard signs along his white picket fence. And every night, to prevent theft or damage, he brings it all back inside for safekeeping.聽
Why We Wrote This
While there has been much hand-wringing over the state of democracy in the United States, one sign points to health: the record numbers of Americans enthusiastically showing up to vote for president.
鈥淭he guy around here who used to have one Trump sign? Now he has three, and a flag. So I told my daughter to Amazon some Biden flags for me,鈥� says Mr. Drop. 鈥淚鈥檓 sort of a little rebel here. ... But I鈥檓 proud of it.鈥澛�
As one of the most divisive campaign seasons in modern history enters its final days, there may be at least one silver lining to the nation鈥檚 polarized politics: Voters appear to be more engaged than ever.聽According to Gallup, over two-thirds of Americans say they are 鈥溾�� about voting in this year鈥檚 election, the highest rate ever recorded.聽聽
Already, some of that engagement has been manifested through unprecedented early voting figures. More than 79 million Americans have voted so far, which is almost 60% of 2016鈥檚 total voter turnout, according to the U.S. Elections Project, a turnout-tracking database run by Michael McDonald at the University of Florida. And while it鈥檚 too early to know for sure, it鈥檚 possible 2020 will have record turnout overall 鈥� one sign of a healthy, not ailing, democracy.聽
鈥淲e鈥檝e never seen these kinds of numbers before,鈥� says Professor McDonald.聽鈥淲e were worried about the conduct of the election in the middle of a pandemic. We were very concerned about the mail-in ballots that have been sent being returned all at the end,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his is a good news story.鈥�
Opinion data: Pew Research Center; 2000-08 early voting data: US Census; 2012-20 early voting data: US Elections Project
An early surge
With five days still to go before Election Day, Texas has recorded nearly 95% of its total 2016 votes. North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida have already banked more than 75% of their 2016 totals.聽
It鈥檚 possible this mostly reflects a change in when Americans are voting, rather than pointing to a spike in total turnout.聽Because of the pandemic, most states expanded their early voting options in the hopes of reducing the numbers at polling locations on Election Day.
Still, if overall turnout does wind up breaking records this year, one reason 鈥� along with the widespread perception of higher-than-usual stakes 鈥� might be that states made voting easier.
This year, 43 states plus the District of Columbia聽 ahead of Election Day. 聽鈥� including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa 鈥� sent mail-in ballot applications to all voters. Others went even further, automatically mailing actual ballots to all voters. Several states, such as Minnesota and Pennsylvania, extended their deadlines for mail-in and absentee ballots to be received, while a dozen others changed their laws regarding eligibility for mail-in and absentee voting, allowing any registered voter to choose that option.聽
鈥淭he numbers of people who have actually voted early or by mail are just off the charts,鈥� says John Fortier, director of governmental studies at the Bipartisan Policy Center and an expert on early and absentee voting. Still, he cautions against reading too much into the 鈥渢ea leaves,鈥� saying, 鈥渨e often see a pattern of people showing up at the earliest day something becomes available.鈥�
Certainly, many of the voters taking advantage of the new rules are not new voters. Jennifer聽Kornegay, a veterinary technician waiting in line with a few dozen other masked voters at the Fairfax County Government Center in northern Virginia, says she always votes in presidential elections, but this is her first time voting early. She heard news reports about long lines, and since she will be working a late shift on Election Day, she didn鈥檛 want to risk missing her chance to vote.聽
Virginia opened some polling locations as early as Sept. 18, with the Fairfax County Office of Elections announcing it would begin offering Saturday hours聽one week ahead of schedule to accommodate record numbers of early voters. In mid-October, Fairfax County opened 14 satellite voting locations 鈥� almost twice the number of satellite sites it typically opens.聽
With less than a week to go before Election Day, more than 300,000 votes have been cast in Fairfax County 鈥� more than half of the total votes cast for president in 2016.
鈥淚t鈥檚 amazing that so many people are willing to turn out and wait hours to vote,鈥� says Ms. Kornegay, who brought her young son Joshua with her. Enthusiasm, she says, seems 鈥渨ay higher than in years past.鈥澛�
Partisan patterns
Judging by the states that report party registration data, Democrats currently hold a wide advantage in mail-in ballot requests and return rates, whereas Republicans hold a slight lead聽. While Democrats may have a slight lead in overall returns so far, that鈥檚 been typical in recent election cycles, when Republicans often make up lost ground on Election Day.聽聽
鈥淲e鈥檙e in the third quarter, and we know that the Republicans have a strong end game,鈥� says Professor McDonald. 鈥淒o the Democrats have enough to withstand what the Republicans are going to do in the 4th quarter?鈥�
Rather than focusing on the early vote, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report suggests that 鈥渕otivation to vote鈥� is the best metric to measure enthusiasm. On that score, an Oct. 22 Quinnipiac University poll found that 68% of likely voters said they were more motivated to vote than in past presidential elections 鈥撀�.
Likewise, according to Pew Research,聽 say it 鈥渞eally matters鈥� who wins the presidency this year, the highest share in two decades of surveys. And as Mr. Fortier notes, 2018 saw the highest voter turnout for a midterm election: 鈥渁 case where there was [apparent] enthusiasm, and it was borne out by higher turnout.鈥澛�
The U.S. hasn鈥檛 seen more than 60% of its voting age population turn out聽. Some experts believe this year could reach as high as 65%.
Vote.org, a nonprofit, nonpartisan voter registration platform, has seen 鈥渆xponential growth鈥� in the use of its services this year, says CEO Andrea Hailey 鈥� 鈥渦nlike anything that Vote.org has seen before.鈥� Use of the site really started to pick up around January, she says, far earlier than typical. They saw another surge this summer, amid the protests over racial justice.聽
鈥淒uring the protests, people started to find out more about what was happening in their communities. People started asking questions like, 鈥榃ho鈥檚 in charge?鈥欌�� says Ms. Hailey. 鈥淭he activism was transferring into registering to vote.鈥�
For many on the right, the protests 鈥� and the destruction that sometimes accompanied them 鈥� had a similarly motivating effect.
Dan Hunsinger, the police chief for Forty Fort, Pennsylvania, leans against the wall in the Luzerne County Republican headquarters. He鈥檚 waiting for an event featuring聽Patricia and Mark聽McCloskey, the聽St.聽Louis聽couple who gained national attention for pointing guns at protesters who entered their gated community. Chief Hunsinger says he鈥檚 never attended a political event like this before 鈥� but decided that this year, sitting on the sidelines wasn鈥檛 an option.
鈥淚鈥檓 scared of what would happen if the liberals got control of our country,鈥� he says.聽鈥淔rom seeing everything [Trump鈥檚] accomplished, I鈥檓 more of an avid supporter than ever before.鈥�
鈥淢y whole family voted for Trump in 2016,鈥� echoes Gary Hontz, a semi-retired truck driver from Schickshinny. 鈥淏ut we support him more now, because he鈥檚 done everything he said he鈥檇 do.鈥�
Signs of enthusiasm
The enthusiasm seen across the political spectrum this year may reverberate well into the future. Typically, if someone participates in two or more elections, they are likely to become a lifelong voter, notes聽Vote.org鈥檚聽Ms. Hailey.聽
鈥淧eople are paying attention to voting and civics in a way we have never seen,鈥� she says. 鈥淣ow we have a new generation of voters who will participate.鈥�
According to the data firm TargetSmart,聽聽鈥� more than 7.6 million people 鈥� are between the ages of 18 and 29. This is more than double the number of young early voters who participated in 2016.
Walking around Nay Aug Park in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Jackie Bush-Holcomb lists all the ways she鈥檚 volunteered to help the Biden campaign over the past few months. She鈥檚 delivered signs, paid $500 to put up a pro-Biden billboard off the highway, and is a part of the Facebook group of almost 500 local women who walk together weekly, decked out in Biden-Harris campaign gear.
鈥淚 have never been more involved in politics than I am right now,鈥� says Ms. Bush-Holcomb, who works with her husband, a real estate agent.聽
鈥淲e鈥檝e never had people call us [for signs] like this,鈥� says Susie Connors, a retired teacher walking with Ms. Bush-Holcomb.聽鈥淚 got a call Monday from my hairdresser,鈥� she adds. 鈥淭hree weeks ago, she was afraid to put a sign up. And now she said, 鈥楴ope. I鈥檓 doing it.鈥欌��
Campaigns and political scientists generally dismiss聽; as the old joke goes,聽鈥渓awn signs don鈥檛 vote.鈥� Still, that doesn鈥檛 mean signs are completely meaningless, says Donald Green, a political scientist at Columbia University and expert on voter outreach.聽
Professor Green led a 2016 study in which he and other political scientists examined the role of lawn signs in four different campaigns. On average, they helped increase a candidate鈥檚 vote share . In a close election where every vote counts, that鈥檚 an effect worth noting. But there鈥檚 an important caveat.
鈥淭here is a big difference between saying what they predict, and what they cause,鈥� says Professor Green. Lawn signs are a type of advertisement; their quantity does not predict the winner.聽
They can, however, be a finger in the wind. Tom Corbett, a Republican who served as the governor of Pennsylvania from 2011 to 2015, remembers driving around outside Pittsburgh ahead of the 2016 election and being surprised at the number of Trump lawn signs.聽
鈥淭hat鈥檚 when I thought, 鈥業t might actually be closer than people think,鈥欌�� says Mr. Corbett. 鈥淪igns are a show of enthusiasm, a willingness to show who you will support.鈥�
