Will Supreme Court fight help or hurt Trump with women? Likely both.
| Washington
President Donald Trump knows he has a woman problem.聽
It was evident during last month鈥檚 Republican National Convention, when female speaker after female speaker presented a caring and empathetic picture of the president, in contrast to his public persona and policies that have alienated some women.聽
It has been evident since the Sept. 18 death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and President Trump鈥檚 pledge to nominate a woman to succeed her. The announcement is slated for Saturday.
Why We Wrote This
President Trump may get a lift among some conservative women uneasy with his personal style 鈥� but could also lose abortion-rights supporters who voted for him in 2016. Either way, a massive partisan gender gap is likely to persist.
It鈥檚 been in evidence, frankly, since the start of Mr. Trump鈥檚 presidency, which he won with 53% of men鈥檚 votes but just 42% of women voters. Polls show the gender gap has only widened over the past four years.聽And the president鈥檚 recent references to聽聽seen by some as a dog whistle to women on the issue of urban unrest, may not be helping.
Now, amid a high-stakes battle for a Supreme Court seat that could tilt the court further to the right for years to come, and with the Nov. 3 election just 41 days away, the women鈥檚 vote is front and center 鈥� particularly in suburban parts of battleground states.聽But for all the last-minute efforts by the president to woo women, in the end nothing is likely to alter the larger dynamic: that for four decades, women have favored Democrats for president by larger margins than men, a phenomenon that has become turbo-charged by Mr. Trump鈥檚 controversial style.聽
鈥淎t this point, the gender gap is completely baked in,鈥� says Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.聽
鈥淚f he picks a woman who is deeply conservative, which he will,鈥� Ms. Walsh adds, 鈥渢hat is not going to make women who are uncomfortable, or worse, with his positions on a host of issues feel like he鈥檚 a champion for women.鈥�
Those issues include the president鈥檚 handling of immigration, family separation on the U.S.-Mexico border, and more recently, the pandemic.聽
Mr. Trump also faces the possibility that replacing Justice Ginsburg with a conservative woman could cost him votes: the subset of Trump voters from 2016 who might be motivated to vote for his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, now that the future of abortion rights could be headed for the Supreme Court.聽
Survey data from 2016 shows that voters (women and men) with mostly pro-abortion-rights attitudes made up more than a fifth of Mr. Trump鈥檚 support in key battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa, of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. He cites from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study at Harvard University.聽
Nationwide, Mr. Wasserman notes, 22% of Trump voters 鈥渓eaned pro-choice鈥� and another 13% held mixed views.聽
Dreama Clark, a retired professor of nursing in Toano, Virginia, calls herself economically conservative and socially liberal, including being 鈥減ro-choice.鈥� She voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, but soured on him over his persona and his handling of the pandemic.聽
Justice Ginsburg鈥檚 death has only reinforced Ms. Clark鈥檚 plan to vote for Mr. Biden 鈥撀燽ut she鈥檚 not sanguine about the future, including what she sees as an erosion of America鈥檚 separation-of-powers system and a judiciary that is becoming increasingly political.聽
鈥淚f Trump wins, I worry about the country,鈥� she says. 鈥淚f Trump loses, I worry about the country.鈥�
Even some voters who call themselves 鈥減ro-life鈥� had already turned against Mr. Trump before the death of Justice Ginsburg, and now say they are all the more motivated to vote for Mr. Biden.聽
鈥淚 feel as passionate as ever about defeating Donald Trump,鈥� says Sandy from suburban Des Moines, Iowa, who asked that her last name not be used. She attends an evangelical church, opposes abortion, and voted for Mr. Trump in 2016, but objects to his behavior and language.聽
鈥淚 say, what good are conservative judges if we still have a country where we hate each other so much and can鈥檛 get along,鈥� she says.
Energy on both sides
Still, some political observers say Mr. Trump may pick up support over his promised nomination of a conservative woman justice.聽
鈥淚t may help him with undecided voters, and it may help him with so-called Never Trump conservative women, of which there are many,鈥� says Jennifer Braceras, director of the conservative and libertarian Independent Women鈥檚 Law Center, which takes no position on abortion.聽
Some conservative women didn鈥檛 vote for Mr. Trump four years ago, because they found him personally offensive, and 鈥渞eally don鈥檛 want to vote for him this time,鈥� Ms. Braceras says. 鈥淏ut the courts are very important to them, and they鈥檇 be thrilled to see a female replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. They can potentially be brought back into the fold.鈥澛�
There are also Trump voters from 2016 who will be more enthusiastic about voting for him again with a Supreme Court seat at stake. Felicia Stafford, a resident of Bedford, New York, who works in advertising sales, calls herself a 鈥減rogressive Republican鈥� who doesn鈥檛 much like Mr. Trump鈥檚 personality. She supports gun control and climate change measures. But she鈥檚 also a practicing Catholic and firmly anti-abortion, and thus welcomes a Trump nominee to the court.聽
Ultimately, then, the Supreme Court confirmation process of Justice Ginsburg鈥檚 replacement might well energize voters on both sides, and so the net political impact could be a wash.聽
This election is all about who鈥檚 motivated to turn out. And if women 鈥渢urn out in larger numbers than they did in 2016 or 2018, then Trump loses,鈥� says Morley Winograd, a senior fellow at the University of Southern California鈥檚 Annenberg Center on Communication Leadership and Policy.聽
The debate will sharpen when Mr. Trump announces his nominee. The front-runner is believed to be Judge Amy Coney Barrett, who currently serves on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit. As a devout Catholic with seven children, she is a favorite of movement conservatives and opponents of abortion rights.聽
Another prospect is Judge Barbara Lagoa of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit. Judge Lagoa, a Cuban-American from Florida, is reportedly favored by some Trump political advisers as a way to excite voters in the nation鈥檚 biggest battleground state, a must-win for Mr. Trump鈥檚 reelection.
No guarantee of support
Still, naming a woman to a high-level government position does not, in and of itself, guarantee the support of women voters, says Lee Epstein, a law professor at Washington University in St. Louis.聽
But if Mr. Trump is using his high court nominee as an electoral plea to certain demographics, he would certainly not be the first president to do so. Professor Epstein offers some examples: President Dwight Eisenhower nominated William Brennan to appeal to Northeastern Catholics. President Richard Nixon nominated Lewis Powell, from Suffolk, Virginia, as a signal to Southerners.聽
Most relevant to today, President Ronald Reagan nominated Sandra Day O鈥機onnor, as the first woman Supreme Court justice. President Reagan, whose election in 1980 saw the debut of the gender gap, was eager to appeal to women. With Justice O鈥機onnor, he ended up with someone less ideologically conservative than he would have preferred, owing to the dearth of qualified women at the time.聽
Today, presidents have more top female talent from whom to choose.聽
鈥淏ecause the judiciary has grown more diverse, presidents no longer face such an either-or, and can check multiple boxes in each nomination,鈥� Professor Epstein says.聽
