Trump embarks on the sales job of a lifetime
| Washington
鈥淧residential power,鈥� wrote the scholar Richard Neustadt, 鈥渋s the power to persuade.鈥澛�
President Donald Trump may be putting that time-honored observation to the acid test, running for reelection in a nation beset by epic challenges. A chief executive with lesser powers of persuasion might be crushed by the turmoil taking place on his watch 鈥� a pandemic that has killed 180,000 Americans, double-digit unemployment, racial unrest, and increasingly routine weather extremes that many link to climate change.听
But President Trump is no ordinary American leader. As he demonstrated time and again in his business career, he has an uncanny ability to survive and even thrive amid adversity. His skills as a salesman and showman are his superpower, and over the next two-plus months 鈥� including Thursday night, when he formally accepts the Republican presidential nomination 鈥� he will deploy them to the hilt.听
Why We Wrote This
As he campaigns for reelection, President Trump is relying on some of the same themes that worked in 2016. But for an incumbent presiding over historic challenges, it鈥檚 a complicated message.
Mr. Trump has for the most part been campaigning on the same themes he ran on in 2016: 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥� and 鈥渄rain the swamp鈥� 鈥� that is, uproot the entrenched elites. Despite the fact that he鈥檚 now the incumbent, he鈥檚 really still an outsider, in his telling.听
鈥淗e鈥檚 demonizing the same people: immigrants, foreigners, the media,鈥� says Republican pollster Whit Ayres. 鈥淚t鈥檚 essentially a replay of the message that put him in the White House in 2016 鈥� barely, but it worked. There鈥檚 a natural tendency to go back to what worked before.鈥�
Historians see efforts to emulate President Ronald Reagan, another disruptor who won the White House twice, on the argument that he needed two terms to effect his conservative 鈥渞evolution.鈥� Others see parallels with President Richard Nixon, who ran on 鈥渓aw and order鈥� amid the tumult of 1968, though he was not the incumbent president.听
At this point, Mr. Trump has been in office more than three and a half years. Despite the nation鈥檚 massive challenges, he and his surrogates are pitching a positive message: He made America great once, and he can do it again. Or as Vice President Mike Pence put it Monday, 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to make America great again ... again!鈥澛�
The president鈥檚 economic message centers on the low unemployment, robust growth, and reduced taxes and regulation that were the hallmarks of his record before the coronavirus hit. Blame for the pandemic lands squarely with others, Mr. Trump says: China, where the virus originated, and with the Democratic mayors and governors who failed to halt its spread.听
Mr. Trump also portrays Democrats in Congress, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, as villains (they offer the same assessment of him), amid a three-week hiatus in talks with the White House over more aid for struggling Americans. Thursday afternoon, Speaker Pelosi and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows were reportedly set to resume negotiations on the next COVID-19 relief package.
Still, it鈥檚 a much more complicated message than in 2016 鈥� since many of the problems the president is promising to solve have occurred on his own watch.听
鈥淗e is trying to point to the chaos and confusion that is 2020 America, and then divorce himself from any responsibility for the chaos and confusion 鈥� then argue that he鈥檚 the solution to the chaos and confusion,鈥� says Rachel Bitecofer, an election forecaster at the nonpartisan Niskanen Center in Washington.听
Mr. Trump, in effect, is trying to be the Harry Houdini of American politics 鈥� seemingly bound by the chains of multiple crises, but clever enough to escape with his political life. One bright spot for the president is that Democratic nominee Joe Biden got little to no 鈥渂ounce鈥� in the polls out of his convention last week, while Mr. Trump鈥檚 job approval has crept up in recent weeks to an .听
While Mr. Biden argues that he represents a return to normality and decency, Team Trump counters with Mr. Biden鈥檚 long record in Washington 鈥� 36 years in the Senate and eight years as vice president. Mr. Biden鈥檚 election, they say, would bring both a deeper 鈥渟wamp鈥� and a leftist economic program that would send the nation on the path to socialism.听
Presidential historian Gil Troy聽of McGill University in Montreal questions whether Mr. Trump can pull off a Reaganesque comeback.听
鈥淩onald Reagan鈥檚 second-term election, most famous for its 鈥楳orning in America鈥� strategy, had a more positive record to run on, a more positive song to sing,鈥� says Professor Troy.听
Another presidential scholar, David Pietrusza, sees multiple historical analogies for the Trump team to draw upon.听
鈥淪urprisingly, FDR looked very shaky in the summer of 1936,鈥� Mr. Pietrusza writes in an email, referring to President Franklin Roosevelt鈥檚 first reelection campaign. 鈥淏ut [Republican nominee Alf] Landon and the GOP ran an awful campaign, and FDR made no great mistakes and coasted to a historic, crushing landslide.鈥�
Harry Truman鈥檚 鈥淕ive 鈥榚m Hell鈥� campaign in 1948 was a similar case, Mr. Pietrusza says. 鈥淎t various times, Truman was left for dead, but after a very strong convention and after his challenger picked a running mate from California who added nothing to the ticket, Harry became president in his own right.鈥�
President Reagan had only a one-percentage-point lead in December 1983, but he turned on the charm and touted 鈥淢orning in America,鈥� while Democratic nominee Walter Mondale said he would raise taxes, Mr. Pietrusza notes. In November 1984, Mr. Reagan won big.
But Mr. Trump is unique, as are the times in which he is running for a second term. Historical analogies go聽only so far.
Republican National Committeeman Henry Barbour of Mississippi points to small things that could be telling as November approaches. Mr. Biden stayed in his home state of Delaware for the duration of the Democratic convention last week, which was supposed to be in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, but was held mostly virtually. This week, more than 300 Republican party figures gathered in Charlotte, North Carolina, including Mr. Barbour, for a reduced version of their in-person convention.听
Mr. Trump and Mr. Pence spoke from Charlotte on Monday in a show of defiance against the coronavirus that has shut down much of American public life. The president had earlier moved the larger, in-person convention activities to Jacksonville, Florida, after North Carolina鈥檚 Democratic governor refused to allow the mega-gatherings that are the essence of national party conventions.听
In July, Mr. Trump canceled the Jacksonville component of the GOP convention after an uptick of coronavirus cases in that city.听
Mr. Barbour says the president and the Republican National Committee wound up modeling what they want the country to do: behave responsibly and avoid large gatherings, but also not allow reasonable daily activity to grind to a halt.听
鈥淚鈥檓 proud of what the RNC did,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat carries over into a much broader contrast and approach: people going to work and doing what they can.鈥�
