The politics of a pandemic: How Trump will be judged in November
| Washington
President Donald Trump鈥檚 bracing assertion on Monday that he will decide when to sparked a flurry of pushback.
In America鈥檚 decentralized federalist system, governors are the drivers of state policy, as even Trump-friendly scholars quickly noted. Orders to 鈥渟tay at home鈥� amid the pandemic 鈥� closing schools and most businesses 鈥� have come from governors and local authorities, not the president.聽聽
In fact, President Trump himself has repeatedly pointed this out. Just days ago, he made a show of not issuing a nationwide call to shelter in place, as a once-in-a-lifetime global health crisis has swept the United States, killing thousands and wrecking a once-strong economy.聽So far more than 25,000 Americans and analysts say that the than had been created since the Great Recession.
Why We Wrote This
For President Trump, the election is likely to hinge almost entirely on his handling of the COVID-19 crisis. He鈥檚 positioning himself to benefit politically from what goes right 鈥� and trying to avoid blame for what doesn鈥檛.
But this seeming contradiction makes more sense when seen through the lens of the looming 2020 presidential election. Like all races featuring an incumbent, the election is likely to be a referendum on Mr. Trump鈥檚 performance in office. And he is positioning himself, analysts say, for a range of potential scenarios 鈥� to get credit if things are improving, and avoid blame if they鈥檙e not.
Editor鈥檚 note: As a public service,聽all our coronavirus coverage聽is free. No paywall.
鈥淗e has a knack for creating 鈥榟eads I win, tails you lose鈥� conflicts,鈥� says Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at the New America think tank.
It鈥檚 possible that by November the public health emergency will be waning and the economy starting to come back.聽
If that鈥檚 the case, 鈥淭rump could run on recovery 鈥� 鈥榤orning in America,鈥欌�� as President Ronald Reagan did in 1984 after a deep recession, says Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin voters.
鈥淏ut if we鈥檙e in a prolonged recession, let alone if there鈥檚 a second wave of the coronavirus in the fall,鈥� he adds, 鈥渢hen we鈥檙e looking at a very different situation.鈥澛�
The politics of the pandemic have set up a push-and-pull dynamic between the Republican president and governors of the hardest-hit states, almost all Democrats. For the most part, they have appeared to work well together in procuring needed equipment and supplies, setting up unusual moments of mutual praise 鈥� most notably involving the governors of the nation鈥檚 two largest blue states, California and New York.
Such bipartisan collaboration helps both sides, and not just in addressing the critical needs of the moment. For Mr. Trump, it鈥檚 a good look as he campaigns for reelection 鈥� particularly with swing voters who could tip the election. For Govs. Gavin Newsom of California and Andrew Cuomo of New York, dubbed by some the 聽the above-politics approach to crisis management may boost aspirations for a future presidential bid.聽
Many governors have seen boffo poll numbers within their states on their handling of the pandemic, some upward of 80% 鈥� with high marks from Republican voters for Democratic leaders and vice versa. Mr. Trump, by contrast, saw a modest, early boost in overall job approval that quickly聽. His scores on 聽the pandemic, which briefly made it above 50%, have also dipped.聽
Perhaps predictably, many on Tuesday shot down Mr. Trump鈥檚 claim of 鈥渢otal鈥� authority to reopen the country.聽
鈥淲e don鈥檛 have a king; we have a president,鈥� Governor Cuomo said on NBC鈥檚 鈥淭oday Show.鈥澛�
Mr. Trump responded on聽: 鈥淐uomo鈥檚 been calling daily, even hourly, begging for everything, most of which should have been the state鈥檚 responsibility,鈥� he wrote.聽
Since 1992, 鈥淚t鈥檚 the economy, stupid鈥� has been a mantra of presidential campaigns, courtesy of Democratic operative James Carville.
Today, that seems only partly true, as Mr. Trump鈥檚 handling of the pandemic will also surely factor into voter calculations 鈥� though the two are in many ways linked. Analysts agree it鈥檚 too soon to say where either the economy or the pandemic will stand come November.聽
But already, the president has been setting expectations and positioning himself to deflect blame if the economic and public health crises are still raging come November. He has pushed back hard on news reports, most comprehensively in , that have portrayed him as slow to respond to early warnings about the virus. His daily briefings have featured blunt attacks on the reporters in the room and the 鈥渇ake news鈥� media in general.聽
Models in late March that between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans dying from the coronavirus have been dialed back, as new information has become available. The models had also shown that without mitigation, between 1.5 million and 2.2 million people could have died.聽
Though it鈥檚 Mr. Trump鈥檚 medical advisers who come up with the models, and not the president himself, he would still be able to claim as a victory any eventual death toll that鈥檚 lower than what was initially predicted, says Professor Franklin.聽
鈥淧resident Trump has a genuine talent for how he presents even bad outcomes, to turn those to his advantage,鈥� Mr. Franklin says.聽
Before the crisis hit, Mr. Trump was by no means a shoo-in for reelection, despite record-low unemployment and soaring markets. Even now, the deeply polarized electorate appears to be fairly frozen in place, with a slice of swing voters in a handful of states likely to determine the outcome.聽
But the November election will 鈥渦nquestionably鈥� be a referendum on Mr. Trump, says Ari Fleischer, who served as White House press secretary for President George W. Bush.聽
Mr. Trump has voter intensity on his side, with devoted followers and an opponent 鈥� former Vice President Joe Biden 鈥� who does not inspire enthusiasm, Mr. Fleischer says.聽Mr. Biden鈥檚 image will matter come the fall, he says, when the election inevitably becomes a choice.
And what of Mr. Trump鈥檚 talk about reopening the country?聽鈥淗e鈥檚 on the side of hope and on the side of what people want,鈥� Mr. Fleischer says. 鈥淭hat cuts in the president鈥檚 favor.鈥澛�
Besides, he notes, Democrats are saying the same thing. On Monday, governors on both the east and west coasts formed regional coalitions aimed at looking ahead to a time when they can reopen their economies in a coordinated way.聽
鈥淚f things bounce back, will [Mr. Trump] get credit for that? And if so, how much?鈥� asks聽Christopher Wlezien, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin who has studied the impact of economic conditions on presidential elections.聽鈥淭hat might be part of his thinking in not wanting to be involved in the closing of the economy, but wanting to be involved in reopening the economy.鈥�
Editor鈥檚 note: As a public service,聽all our coronavirus coverage聽is free. No paywall.
