鈥榃e have to have hope, right?鈥� Democrats grasp for momentum.
| Manchester, N.H.
In between jokes about needing her ice skates on New Hampshire鈥檚 sidewalks, two-time Olympic medalist Michelle Kwan lays out why she believes former Vice President Joe Biden should be the Democratic Party鈥檚 nominee. Mr. Biden, she tells the crowd gathered at the Rex Theater in Manchester, is the only candidate who can beat 鈥測ou-know-who.鈥澛�
There鈥檚 a pause, and then a feeble smattering of applause.聽
Beating 鈥測ou-know-who鈥� has been a defining theme of this Democratic primary contest, with candidates and voters alike describing Donald Trump鈥檚 presidency as a kind of national emergency. For three years, Democrats have predicted that feelings of outrage and urgency on their side would drive massive numbers of voters to the polls next November 鈥� as happened during the 2018 midterm elections.
Why We Wrote This
Democrats have been counting on a sense of urgency to drive voters to the November polls. But while some see a fire burning, others are sensing they may have to battle a 鈥渨eary resignation.鈥�
But as New Hampshire prepares to register its choice for the Democratic nominee on Tuesday, there are signs that some of that anger may be fading into something more like weary resignation.聽
Last week, in particular, was a kind of dispiriting exercise in futility for Democrats. President Trump鈥檚 impeachment trial ended with his long-expected acquittal by the Senate, and his Gallup approval rating reached a new high. The Iowa caucus fiasco raised serious doubts about the Democratic Party鈥檚 competence, and did little to winnow its unwieldy field of candidates.
Notably, turnout among Iowa Democrats was far lower than in 2008 鈥� despite predictions that it would smash records 鈥� leading many to wonder if the party may suddenly have an enthusiasm problem.聽 聽 聽聽
鈥淚 think there鈥檚 a malaise settling in on the Democratic Party,鈥� says Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 鈥淵ou can only stay angry for so long.鈥�
Over plastic foam plates of lo mein in the Mall of New Hampshire鈥檚 food court, Emily Hay says she plans to vote for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders on Tuesday. But she鈥檚 feeling pessimistic about the Democrats鈥� chances of beating the president in November.
鈥淪o many people, myself included, have gotten to the point where it鈥檚 like, 鈥楾rump did this!鈥� and I鈥檓 just like, 鈥榊eah, whatever,鈥欌�� says Ms. Hay, an energy efficiency coordinator from Tilton, New Hampshire. Her mother, Polly Hayden, agrees, saying the Senate鈥檚 recent acquittal of the president only discouraged her further.
鈥淚t鈥檚 hard to be optimistic with everything we鈥檝e seen,鈥� concurs Ms. Hay鈥檚 husband, Russel.
Still, he views recent events as more of a temporary setback. And he doesn鈥檛 see a widespread apathy among Democrats.
鈥淚 think there are enough young people who are angry,鈥� says Mr. Hay. 鈥淚 think there is still a fire burning.鈥澛�
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 a toss-up鈥�
Certainly, the fire was there in 2018. The midterm elections saw the , helping Democrats win back control of the U.S. House of Representatives with the for a midterm in modern history.聽
But replicating that playbook again 鈥� given four years of a Trump presidency that included nonstop controversies from a special counsel investigation to an impeachment 鈥� may prove more difficult.聽Not only has Mr. Trump emerged from all those events largely unscathed, but many voters are also expressing a sense of fatigue.
At the same time, the all-consuming focus on Mr. Trump has made it hard for any of the Democratic candidates to gain traction. And while elections involving sitting presidents often play out as referendums on the incumbent, the president is already working to define his opponents in negative terms.
Just a few tables away in the food court, two women eating Auntie Anne鈥檚 pretzels describe President Trump as 鈥渢he best of the worst.鈥� When asked if they would support any of the Democratic candidates, they throw their heads back and laugh.聽
鈥淣o way,鈥� says one of the women, as her friend vigorously shakes her head. 鈥淣ot a chance.鈥澛�
While an app malfunction and other irregularities delayed the final results in Iowa, about 176,000 Iowans participated in last week鈥檚 caucus 鈥� a slight increase from 2016, but still 62,000 voters short of 2008鈥檚 record-breaking numbers.聽
Republicans, on the other hand, saw more than 30,000 Iowans turn out in a largely symbolic show of support for the president 鈥� 鈥溾�� for an incumbent, according to the Iowa GOP.聽
Many Democrats admit to feeling particularly apprehensive, as Mr. Trump鈥檚 prospects for winning reelection appear to be improving.聽
Waiting in a snaking line to see Sen. Amy Klobuchar in Salem, New Hampshire, on Sunday, Denise Ouellette, a voter from Massachusetts who plans to support Pete Buttigieg, says she keeps hoping something will come out about the president to undermine his support.
鈥淟eaders embody our nation,鈥� she says, her voice beginning to quaver and her eyes filling with tears. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e supposed to embody our value system.鈥�
Ms. Ouellette鈥檚 husband, Tom, believes the Democrats鈥� best chances of winning in November would be with Senator Klobuchar or Mr. Buttigieg. But he鈥檚 not overly optimistic.
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 a toss-up,鈥� says Mr. Ouellette. 鈥淚 think it鈥檚 entirely possible that even with everything Trump鈥檚 done ... that he鈥檚 still there鈥� in 2021.
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to take a movement鈥�
To be sure, some argue the events of the past week may have actually helped to fan the flames for Democrats. Although New Hampshire鈥檚 secretary of state cut his initial turnout projection by 80,000 votes, he is still predicting on Tuesday.
Carlos Cardona, chairman of the Laconia Democrats, says Democratic enthusiasm in his town 鈥� which before voting for 鈥� surpasses anything he saw ahead of the 2018 midterms, or even the 2008 election.
鈥淚鈥檓 feeling the energy on the ground a lot more than ever,鈥� says Mr. Cardona. He knows people who have taken a week off from work to canvass for candidates, and says his own door has been knocked at least 17 times.聽
Mr. Cardona expects record turnout on Tuesday 鈥� and is anticipating a big victory for Senator Sanders, who won the state in 2016, and is currently leading in most polls there.
In the run-up to the Iowa caucuses, Mr. Sanders predicted the 鈥溾�� in Iowa history would propel him to victory. And although he appears to have won Iowa鈥檚 popular vote, he lags Mr. Buttigieg in state delegate equivalents, and he later admitted the turnout was a 鈥渄isappointment.鈥澛�
鈥淚 think all of us probably could have done a better job in bringing out our supporters,鈥� he said聽in Friday鈥檚 debate.
Iowans under the age of 30 made up 鈥� compared with 鈥� with the majority of them backing Mr. Sanders. But the overall number of young people who caucused was still down from 2008.
Of course, caucuses 鈥� which require showing up at a specific time, and committing several hours 鈥� tend to have much lower turnout than primaries. And many Sanders supporters are predicting a much bigger show of strength in New Hampshire on Tuesday.
After hosting a debate watch party on Friday night, David Robin got on a midnight Greyhound bus in New York City to canvass for the Vermont senator. By dinnertime on Saturday, Mr. Robin still hadn鈥檛 checked in to his room at the nearby Econo Lodge.
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to take a movement like ours to beat a movement like [Trump鈥檚],鈥� he says.聽
At other candidates鈥� events, many rallygoers 鈥� a high percentage of whom appear to have traveled here from other states 鈥� say they鈥檙e similarly determined.
鈥淚 am not one of the people who are worried that this is all chaos and disaster,鈥� says Chris Bastian, a transportation planner from the New York City borough of Brooklyn, waiting in line to see Mr. Biden in Manchester.
But Mary Aarons, a book publisher from Massachusetts, admits to feeling apprehensive about November. Before getting in line to see Mr. Biden, she was chatting with the owner of a nearby pastry shop 鈥� noting how empty Manchester seemed the Saturday before the primary. At this time in 2008, the pastry shop owner told Ms. Aarons, the place was buzzing. The streets were packed.聽
鈥淚 have to remain optimistic, though, because we have to have hope, right?鈥� says Ms. Aarons. 鈥淚 can鈥檛 even conceive of the alternative.鈥�
Staff writer Christa Case Bryant contributed to this report.
