Will impeachment change Trump? A Washington guessing game.
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| Washington
For the first time in American history, an impeached president is running for reelection 鈥撀燼nd quite possibly could win. That stark reality came to life Tuesday night, as President Donald Trump delivered his third State of the Union address, a more raucous campaign-style event dotted with made-for-TV moments than the often-staid annual affair.聽
The president delivered last night鈥檚 speech amid the expectation of acquittal today by the Senate. A midafternoon announcement from Utah Republican Sen. Mitt Romney that he would vote to convict Mr. Trump on one count dealt a blow to the Republican wall of unity. But the president remained聽a leader on the verge of triumph, with his Gallup job approval rating at an all-time high (49%) and his political adversaries warning of a chief executive unbound.聽
The icing on the cake this week came from Iowa, where the fiasco over the Democrats鈥 inability to report the results of Monday鈥檚 presidential caucuses in a timely fashion handed Mr. Trump another political gift.聽
Why We Wrote This
President Donald Trump comes out of impeachment in a reasonably strong position. But post-acquittal, will he feel unfettered in his behavior as he seeks a second term?
Still, questions abound: Will the president overplay his hand? Post-acquittal, will he feel unfettered in his behavior as he seeks a second term? While some Republican senators have said that his dealings with the Ukrainian president 鈥 withholding military aid in exchange for dirt on political opponents 鈥 were 聽all but Senator Romney voted today to acquit.
Senator Romney鈥檚 stunning decision to vote to convict on one count 鈥 abuse of power 鈥 no doubt took some of the wind out of Mr. Trump鈥檚 sails. Calling himself 鈥減rofoundly religious,鈥 the former GOP presidential nominee said he couldn鈥檛 think of much 鈥渢hat would be a more egregious assault on our Constitution than trying to corrupt an election to maintain power. And that鈥檚 what the president did.鈥
The logical approach for Mr. Trump, political analysts say, would be to restrain his behavior and not do anything too risky through Election Day. After all, he can claim vindication on the impeachment charges; the economy is strong; a near-record-high 59% of Americans say their personal finances are better now than a year ago,聽; and Democrats are in disarray. As things look now, Mr. Trump is in a reasonably good position to win in November.聽
鈥淚t seems like the people around him would say, 鈥楯ust run the string here, then you鈥檒l have four more years and you can do what you want to do,鈥欌 says Cal Jillson, a presidential scholar at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.聽
Aides had reportedly advised the president not to mention impeachment in the State of the Union, following President Bill Clinton鈥檚 1999 precedent, and the fact that聽the president stuck to that advice Tuesday night was noteworthy 鈥 suggesting he may be willing to exercise a bit more discipline three years into his presidency. Mr. Trump, after all, is famous for over-the-top rhetoric, via Twitter and at rallies, and his cries of 鈥渨itch hunt鈥 (or similar charges) have been part of his repertoire since he announced his candidacy in 2015.聽
Yet the cloud of impeachment hung over the proceedings, and its accompanying partisan rancor contributed to a circuslike atmosphere. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Mr. Trump publicly snubbed each other at the beginning and end 鈥 most dramatically, when Speaker Pelosi ripped a paper copy of his speech in half after he finished. Some Democrats over a pronouncement on health care; some walked out.聽
Moderate Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, one of only two GOP senators (along with Senator Romney) to vote in favor of witnesses during the Senate trial, argued Sunday that Mr. Trump has learned his lesson.聽
鈥淗e was impeached,鈥 Senator Collins said on CBS鈥檚 鈥淔ace the Nation.鈥 鈥淎nd there has been criticism by both Republican and Democratic senators of his call [with the Ukrainian president]. I believe that he will be much more cautious in the future.鈥澛(Though she that 鈥渉ope鈥 may have been a better word than 鈥渂elieve.鈥)
One big difference between the Clinton and Trump impeachments is that Mr. Clinton鈥檚 took place toward the end of his presidency, and Mr. Trump鈥檚 is taking place amid a reelection bid.聽
But there鈥檚 also a big difference in their respective postures. With Mr. Clinton, 鈥渢here was this general sense that he was chastened and remorseful,鈥 says Russell Riley, co-chair of the Presidential Oral History Program at the University of Virginia鈥檚 Miller Center. 鈥淲ith Trump, there鈥檚 none of that. So there鈥檚 an enormous amount of anxiety about what he might do as president from this point forward, because he鈥檚 effectively a president unbound.鈥澛
Professor Riley sees this period as constitutionally perilous.
In the past, 鈥渋nstitutions balanced other institutions, but those checks and balances are largely not working,鈥 he says. 鈥淪o the only real question is the sense of self-restraint that President Trump feels as it relates to his own reelection prospects.鈥澛
Trump defense lawyer Alan Dershowitz stoked fears last week that the president鈥檚 executive power could become unfettered, when the retired Harvard Law professor asserted, 鈥淚f a president does something which he believes will help him get elected in the public interest, that cannot be the kind of quid pro quo that results in impeachment.鈥澛
Mr. Dershowitz later said his remarks were mischaracterized, but the larger concern about presidential overreach remains.聽
House Democrats, meanwhile, say more information will emerge about the president鈥檚 actions in Ukraine. One possibility could be testimony in House hearings from John Bolton, a former Trump national security adviser, and Lev Parnas, the Ukrainian-born former associate of Trump personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani.聽
In an interview Sunday on 鈥淔ace the Nation,鈥 House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff would not state whether Democrats plan to subpoena Mr. Bolton. But, he added, 鈥渢he truth will come out鈥 鈥 whether in testimony before the House or in Mr. Bolton鈥檚 forthcoming book.聽