Trump鈥檚 trade stance shaped by deep convictions 鈥� and political instincts
| WASHINGTON
Donald Trump is railing against a foreign power 鈥渄umping鈥� its products in the United States. He calls the U.S. a 鈥渄ebtor nation.鈥� He insists other countries must pay their 鈥渇air share.鈥�
鈥淚 do get tired of seeing the country ripped off,鈥� he says.
The year is 1988, and the focus of Mr. Trump鈥檚 ire is Japan. In this from an appearance on 鈥淭he Oprah Winfrey Show,鈥� Mr. Trump never refers to tariffs directly, but it鈥檚 clear he believes they鈥檙e the solution.
Why We Wrote This
The China trade war reflects President Trump鈥檚 long-held belief in the power of tariffs, and his drive to fulfill a campaign promise. At least for now, he鈥檚 willing to put the strong U.S. economy at risk in pursuit of that goal.
He also didn鈥檛 rule out running for president some day 鈥� and said if he did, he鈥檇 win.聽鈥淚鈥檝e never gone in to lose in my life,鈥� he says.
Be it in business, politics, or a trade war, now-President Trump has been consistent in his self-image as a winner. And as he digs in for a potentially long, costly battle with China over trade practices, Mr. Trump is demonstrating that he does have some long-held, core beliefs, despite having changed his positions on other policy issues, such as abortion, to win the support of key constituencies.
From the day he announced his presidential campaign almost four years ago, protectionism and stricter immigration practices have formed the unflinching basis of his agenda. Now, with an eye toward reelection, Mr. Trump is engaged in a singular drive to fulfill the campaign promises that he believes fueled his 2016 victory.
鈥淗e wants to go to the American public, and say 鈥楲ook, I鈥檝e done what I said I鈥檇 do,鈥欌�� says Todd Belt, director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
That鈥檚 not to say Mr. Trump never backs down, even on his core goals. Earlier this year, he caved on the record-long government shutdown over funding for a border wall one day after he wouldn鈥檛.聽
And Mr. Trump鈥檚 reputation for being mercurial is well earned. Consider his dealings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in which Mr. Trump has gone from threatening 鈥渇ire and fury鈥� to professing 鈥渓ove鈥� to feuding once more. Mr. Trump鈥檚 unpredictability has become predictable, in an echo of the Nixon-era 鈥渕adman theory鈥� of international relations, which can keep those around the president as well as world leaders off balance.
Yet through it all, Mr. Trump鈥檚 beliefs on trade and immigration remain constant.
And therein lies another challenge. Mr. Trump has insisted for decades that tariffs are a boon to the country that imposes them. The reality is much less rosy. Last year, U.S. trade wars predominantly with China cost the U.S. economy $7.8 billion in lost gross domestic product, according to academic .
鈥淭rump says they [the foreign countries] are paying the tariffs,鈥� says Patrick Kennedy of University of California, Berkeley, a co-author of the study. 鈥淥ur studies have found U.S. businesses and consumers are paying the tariffs.鈥�
Jordan Tama, an expert on the politics of U.S. foreign policy at American University, says Mr. Trump is not only driven by his deeply held, if misguided, views on trade but also his understanding of how the issue can work for him politically.聽Mr. Trump thinks being tough on China could be good politics 鈥� and that could prove true, depending on how things play out.聽
鈥淢ost Americans do think the U.S. should take a tough stance toward China on economic issues,鈥� Mr. Tama says. 鈥淏ut if Trump is seen in negotiations with China as giving in on economic issues without getting much in return, this could open him up to criticism in the 2020 campaign.鈥�
Mr. Trump, in fact, has been widely applauded, including by top Democrats, for taking on China鈥檚 practice of stealing intellectual property and forcing American firms to share their technology as a condition for access to the Chinese market.
Still, economists see a risk that the escalating trade war with China, the U.S.鈥檚 biggest trading partner, could push the U.S. into recession. Currently, unemployment is at a 50-year low of 3.6%. In the first quarter of 2019, economic growth was strong at 3.2%, and the stock market is back on the upswing after a brief dip over fears of a trade war. If this record continues, it could be Mr. Trump鈥檚 best argument for reelection.聽聽
鈥淓ven if tariffs do take a bit of strength out of the economy, he seems to be betting it won鈥檛 go into recession,鈥� says Mr. Tama. 鈥淗e might be right. The U.S. economy is still doing well. But that doesn鈥檛 mean it will continue to do well with a new round of tariffs.鈥�
To Mr. Trump鈥檚 reported chagrin, top economic adviser Larry Kudlow on 鈥淔ox News Sunday鈥� that both sides pay for the cost of tariffs, as American importers take what is effectively a tax increase and pass it on to U.S. consumers. But Mr. Kudlow defended the president鈥檚 approach, saying it was worth the risk to correct 鈥�20 years-plus of unfair trading practices with China.鈥�
Mr. Trump has faced pushback on his protectionism from the business community, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Koch network, both of which reflect the GOP鈥檚 traditional free-trade philosophy. But among the party鈥檚 rank and file, opinion has swung in the president鈥檚 direction.
鈥淲ithin his party, he鈥檚 now getting over 50% support for tariffs,鈥� says Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll in Milwaukee. 鈥淚t shows how powerful leadership is when it comes to specific issues, and a party whose members are naturally inclined to support that president鈥檚 positions.鈥�
More important, though, in a crucial battleground state like Wisconsin 鈥� part of the 鈥渂lue wall鈥� that helped elect Mr. Trump in 2016 鈥� is how farmers are faring during the trade wars. In the past, China has retaliated by slowing purchases of soybeans and other agricultural products. Last year, the administration set up a $12 billion bailout fund to help farmers. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump suggested he would provide another $15 billion.
