海角大神

To gain insight into President Trump 鈥� and the government shutdown 鈥� read Chapter 2 of 鈥淭he Art of the Deal.鈥�

Many of the steps businessman Trump and his coauthor lay out in their 1987 bestseller reflect the president鈥檚 aggressive approach to negotiation today: Think big. Use your leverage. Get the word out. Fight back.

鈥淢y style of deal-making is quite simple and straightforward,鈥� the chapter begins. 鈥淚 aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I鈥檓 after.鈥�

Over the weekend, Mr. Trump got a taste of just how difficult negotiating can be in Washington. As the partial government shutdown over border-wall funding entered its fifth week, Trump offered what he called a 鈥渃ommon-sense compromise鈥�: temporary protections for 鈥渄reamers鈥� and certain other immigrants in exchange for $5.7 billion for the wall.

The offer seemed a departure from Trump鈥檚 aggressive style. But 鈥淭he Art of the Deal鈥� also preaches flexibility. 鈥淚 never get too attached to one deal or one approach,鈥� he writes. Last week, top Trump aides crafted the proposal with the Senate Republican leader.

Satisfying all constituencies in Washington, however, can be extraordinarily difficult 鈥� and with the House now in Democratic hands, enacting major legislation just got a lot harder. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called Trump鈥檚 proposal a nonstarter before it was even announced, knowing that it would still contain $5.7 billion for the wall; high-profile conservatives slammed the immigration provisions as 鈥渁mnesty.鈥�

For Trump, now two years in office, it鈥檚 all part of the education of a still-novice politician.

鈥淭he complexity, the number of issues, and the number of parties at the table is exponentially more difficult in a presidential environment than dealing with some zero-sum, 鈥榦ne dollar more for you is one dollar less for me鈥� calculation in buying or selling a building,鈥� says Marty Latz, a negotiations trainer and author of the book 鈥淭he Real Trump Deal: An Eye-Opening Look at How He Really Negotiates.鈥�

Another difference is that in business, when one deal falls apart, there may well be another opportunity elsewhere, with different people. As a businessman, Trump 鈥渞eally didn鈥檛 care about future relationships with his counterparts,鈥� says Mr. Latz.

In Washington, there鈥檚 one Congress and one president. Unless Trump declares a national emergency and tries to do an end-run around Congress to fund the wall, he and the Democrats will have to come to terms to reopen the government, and, in general, learn to deal with one another.

The聽鈥楽chool of Roy鈥� approach

Trump biographers point to other aspects of the president鈥檚 prior business practices as emblematic of how he operates today.

鈥淚t鈥檚 all about what you can get away with,鈥� says Gwenda Blair, author of a 2000 biography called 鈥淭he Trumps: Three Generations That Built an Empire.鈥�

鈥淗e follows the 鈥楽chool of Roy鈥� approach,鈥� she says, referring to early Trump lawyer Roy Cohn, infamous for representing the red-baiting Sen. Joe McCarthy in the 1950s. 鈥淣ever concede, never back down, double down, any accusation that comes your way, heave it right back.鈥�

Keeping a quarter of the government unfunded for over a month 鈥� and 800,000 federal workers going without pay 鈥� might have seemed impossible, Ms. Blair notes. But that鈥檚 where things stand today.

On Tuesday, a glimmer of hope emerged when the parties鈥� Senate leaders, Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat Chuck Schumer, announced two procedural votes on Thursday 鈥� one on the president鈥檚 plan, the other to reopen the government through Feb. 8.聽The first measure looks sure to fail, while the fate of the second isn鈥檛 clear.

Through it all, Trump seems undaunted, despite polls that show more than half the country blaming him for the shutdown and his job approval in decline, including .

Speaker Pelosi鈥檚 negotiating stance has also faced criticism. She insists the wall is 鈥渋mmoral鈥� and offers just one dollar in funding. The moral framing, in particular, doesn鈥檛 leave wiggle room for compromise.

The Trump-Pelosi relationship was, until recently, respectful. 鈥淚 like her,鈥� the president said after the midterms. 鈥淪he鈥檚 tough and she鈥檚 smart.鈥� Notably, he has refrained from tagging her with a derogatory nickname.

Last week, their impasse over the border wall descended into tit-for-tat. Pelosi suggested Trump not deliver his State of the Union address from the Capitol, scheduled for Jan. 29, until the government reopened. The next day, Trump effectively canceled a Pelosi trip to Afghanistan. Over the weekend, Trump called Pelosi a on Twitter.

This is not to say that Trump and Pelosi can鈥檛 make deals in the future. But for now, they鈥檙e both dug in, and both working their respective points of leverage.

Trump鈥檚 declining job approval 鈥� and growing share of the blame for the shutdown 鈥� have given Pelosi and her wingman, Senate minority leader Schumer, political leverage. The president didn鈥檛 help his cause when he told Pelosi and Schumer, in a televised Oval Office meeting on Dec. 11, that he鈥檇 be 鈥減roud鈥� to shut down the government over the border wall.聽聽

Still, overall support for the wall has , especially among Republicans. Today, 42 percent of Americans support the wall, up from 34 percent last January, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll.

Despite reports of a frustrated Trump lashing out at aides behind the scenes, his public posture remains defiant.

鈥淗e takes a broad-shouldered approach,鈥� says Darren Frame, a businessman who now teaches negotiation at Baylor University in Waco, Texas.

鈥淭rump is really good at being the bad guy for a while,鈥� says Mr. Frame, who uses 鈥淭he Art of the Deal鈥� as a teaching tool. 鈥淗e鈥檚 pretty ego-driven, of course, which gives him a huge advantage in that he doesn鈥檛 worry so much about what people think of him, unless he thinks he鈥檚 wrongly accused of things. That鈥檚 when you see him fight back.鈥�

A possible way out?

If the current standoff represents a classic case of 鈥減ositional bargaining鈥� 鈥� one side wins, the other side loses 鈥� experts say there鈥檚 an alternative approach, called interest-based negotiation.

鈥淭he basic idea here is, let鈥檚 not focus on positions, or what each side says they want: 鈥業 want a wall;鈥� 鈥榃ell, we鈥檙e not going to give it to you,鈥� 鈥� says Daniel Shapiro, director of the Harvard International Negotiation Program.

In this negotiation technique, the starting point is to look at the underlying interests.

鈥淲hy do you want a wall? Why do you not want a wall?鈥� says Professor Shapiro, author of the book 鈥淣egotiating the Nonnegotiable.鈥� 鈥淚s it the expenditure of funds, or is it differences in belief around security needs at the border? Is it precedents that you鈥檙e nervous about setting?鈥�

Once the underlying interests are understood, then the negotiators can start to craft an agreement that works for everybody.

Shapiro pushes back on the idea that in the business world, Trump-style 鈥減ositional bargaining鈥� works better. Research shows that in most circumstances, interest-based negotiators do better, whether it鈥檚 in business, government, or the family, he says.

鈥淧resident Trump is accustomed to positional bargaining, and I鈥檇 imagine at points it probably has done him well in business,鈥� Shapiro says. 鈥淏ut in the Washington context, he estranges more and more people 鈥� and estranges those with whom he actually needs to work.鈥�

Shapiro doesn鈥檛 let Pelosi and Schumer off the hook, either. In the Dec. 11 Oval Office meeting, everyone was posturing, he says, not engaging in productive dialogue.

The solution, he and others suggest, is to let subordinates work behind the scenes on a deal, away from the spotlight. The Trump proposal announced Saturday was crafted last Thursday by Vice President Mike Pence, senior adviser/son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Senate majority leader McConnell, and hailed by Republicans as an effort to break the stalemate. But there were no Democrats at the table.

Trump Senate ally Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina reopening the government for a stretch, allowing workers to be paid and negotiators to work out a deal. Trump responded, No,聽let鈥檚 make a deal, then open up the government. Democrats insist on opening the government first, then negotiating a solution on immigration.

Senator Graham has supported the notion of Trump declaring a national emergency and repurposing federal money for the wall 鈥� a gambit that would certainly land in court. But at least Trump could tell his supporters he did everything he could. Trump has swung from saying he would almost definitely declare an emergency, to backing off the idea.

鈥淚n negotiation lingo, Trump calling a national emergency is his BATNA 鈥� his Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement,鈥� says Shapiro. 鈥淏ut you know it鈥檚 clearly not attractive enough for him to, as yet, walk away from the negotiation table.鈥�

Semantics can also play a role in conflict resolution, and allow both sides to save face. In any final resolution that involves money for the border, Trump can say he got his 鈥渨all,鈥� Democrats can say they got 鈥渂order security,鈥� and each can declare victory to their respective political bases.

Blair, the Trump biographer, sees the border wall as more than just the fulfilling of a core campaign promise. It goes to the essence of what Trump is about.

鈥淗e has spent decades building up his brand 鈥� on buildings, on television,鈥� she says. 鈥淗is gut instinct, I suspect, is that the wall is part of the brand of being president.鈥�