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Opinions about President Trump are so hardened that this week鈥檚 bombshell conviction and guilty plea of his former campaign chairman and personal attorney may only have a minimal impact on the upcoming midterm elections.

But in divided America, elections are won on the margins 鈥� and that is where this week鈥檚 news, along with the indictment of Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) of California, could move the needle. In swing districts, particularly among 鈥渞eluctant鈥� Republicans, a 鈥渃ulture of corruption鈥� message could influence voters, though Democrats are being very careful as to how they craft that message.

鈥淭he best thing that Trump has going for him right now is the polarization of the electorate. Probably most Republicans are sticking with him,鈥� says John Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, Calif. But this week鈥檚 developments could sway those voters who backed Mr. Trump in 2016 largely because they didn鈥檛 like Hillary Clinton, he says. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e not a majority, but they are more than enough to tip a lot of these close elections.鈥�

Corruption is seldom a top issue for voters, says Mr. Pitney. It鈥檚 usually the economy, and that鈥檚 one thing that Republicans have in their favor. 鈥淏ut corruption can matter if people hear enough about it.鈥�

That happened in 1994, when Rep. Newt Gingrich (R) of Georgia led a Republican takeover of the House for the first time in 40 years. He had a policy agenda, the 鈥淐ontract with America,鈥� but he also hammered home various scandals among House Democrats.聽

The scandal strategy backfired, though, when House Republicans moved to impeach President Bill Clinton in 1998. Many voters viewed it as overreach for a president鈥檚 personal indiscretions, even though Mr. Clinton later admitted to making false statements. The move cost Republicans four seats in that year鈥檚 midterms, and Speaker Gingrich resigned 鈥� under an ethics cloud of his own.

鈥淭hat was a complete flop of an effort 鈥� and of course, Newt Gingrich paid the price,鈥澛爏ays former House historian聽Ray Smock.

It is not surprising then, that Democratic leaders are laying off the 鈥渋鈥� word 鈥� impeachment 鈥� despite tremendous pressure from progressives and big-money Democrats such as Tom Steyer.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not a priority,鈥� House minority leader Nancy Pelosi (D) of California told the Associated Press after former Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort was convicted聽Tuesday聽of bank and tax fraud and Michael Cohen, the president鈥檚 former attorney and 鈥渇ixer,鈥� pleaded guilty to bank and tax fraud charges as well as campaign finance violations.

Mr. Cohen directly implicated Trump as having ordered him to pay two women during the 2016 campaign to silence them about their alleged affairs with Trump. The president is now an 鈥渦nindicted co-conspirator,鈥� said Senate minority leader Charles Schumer (D) of New York聽on Wednesday, demanding that the Senate Judiciary Committee immediately pause consideration of the president鈥檚 US Supreme Court Nominee, Judge Brett Kavanaugh 鈥� to no avail.

Senator Schumer, too, waves off impeachment talk. For one thing, Democrats fear it will energize the Republican base. For another, they want the special counsel, Robert Mueller, to finish his work and report on Russian interference with the 2016 election and whether there was any collusion with the Trump campaign.

They are more than happy, however, to point to the 鈥渃esspool of self-enrichment, secret money and ethical blindness鈥� of Republican-controlled Washington, as leader Pelosi put it in a statement聽Tuesday. That includes the indictments of Congressman Hunter on campaign finance abuses and Rep. Chris Collins (R) of New York for insider stock trading.

Both men were Trump鈥檚 very first congressional endorsers, and while Congressman Collins now says he will not seek reelection, a defiant Hunter is barreling ahead. He鈥檚 blasting a Justice Department 鈥渨itch hunt鈥� and media coverage for his troubles. He and his wife face dozens of criminal charges for misusing more than $250,000 in campaign funds on everything from European vacations to the water bill. Speaker Paul Ryan has stripped him of his committee assignments.

In a Trump-friendly Midwestern district, such as the one that Rep. Cheri Bustos (D) of Illinois handily won in 2016, 鈥渨e can't just聽be running on an anti-Trump message, even with everything that happened鈥� this week, says Congresswoman Bustos. What Democrats should do, she says, is continue to emphasize kitchen-table issues, like healthcare costs and low wages, while also pointing out the Republicans鈥� failure to exercise proper oversight of the administration.

鈥淵ou barely hear a peep out of them. They are literally rubber-stamping corruption,鈥� she says.

Of course, Democrats are not scandal-free. A new Quinnipiac poll shows incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez (D) of New Jersey suddenly in a horse race now that the Senate ethics panel has 鈥渟everely admonished鈥� him. In January, the Justice Department dropped bribery and other charges against him after a mistrial. The poll finds that ethics is the number one issue in deciding how New Jersey voters will cast their ballot for US Senate.

Still, acting as a 鈥渃heck and balance鈥� on the president is emerging as a powerful campaign theme, particularly among suburban women, where support for Trump is eroding, says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. This week鈥檚 news about Manafort and Cohen is likely to help outsider and female candidates, whom voters tend to see as 鈥渕ore honest.鈥�

At the beginning of the year, it was the president who had the advantage over Democrats on corruption, says Ms. Lake. Among independents, he had as much as a 24-point lead, her polling showed. Voters saw him as too wealthy to be bought or bossed, an outsider intent on 鈥渄raining the swamp.鈥� But that advantage has diminished, she says.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the independent Sabato鈥檚 Crystal Ball political forecast, points out that聽Tuesday鈥檚聽double-whammy against two former stars of Trump鈥檚 inner circle will probably not affect the president鈥檚 approval ratings. But that doesn鈥檛 mean it won鈥檛 matter in the battle for the House, because views of Trump are hardened in a way that is 鈥減oor for the president, and for his fellow Republicans.鈥澛�

Trump鈥檚 ratings are 鈥渟tuck鈥� in the low-to-mid 40s,聽, and this week鈥檚 news won鈥檛 raise them. A threat of impeachment could possibly rally Trump鈥檚 core supporters, but Trump and Republicans have a bigger problem than motivating the base, and that is a 鈥減ersuasion problem with soft Republicans in the suburbs鈥� who don鈥檛 like him.

If the political environment is favoring House Democrats, Republicans need something positive to improve Trump鈥檚 numbers, says Mr. Kondik in an interview. 鈥淭his is not that.鈥�