On tariffs, many farmers break sharply with Trump
| Wamego, Kan., and Lincoln, Neb.
Glenn Brunkow eases his pickup past the land his great-great-great-grandfather homesteaded in the 1860s, pointing out the rich soil where he鈥檒l grow soybeans this year, and then turns into a cow pasture.
It鈥檚 calving season, his favorite time of year in Kansas.
鈥淭his is kind of like Christmas, coming out here every morning,鈥� says Mr. Brunkow on a brisk March day, stopping to wait for a calf in his path as it takes a long, deep draught from its mother鈥檚 udder. 鈥淚 like coming and finding a new calf nursing.鈥�
But farmers here in Trump country recently got a far less welcome present from Washington: tariffs on steel and aluminum. It鈥檚 a 1-2 punch that hits hard in the Heartland. Not only are the soon-to-be implemented tariffs already driving up the cost of farm equipment, but other countries are threatening to retaliate by targeting US agricultural exports.
This is just the latest trade move that could have serious ramifications for farmers 鈥撀燼 key part of President Trump鈥檚 political base. Mr. Trump鈥檚 decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal has cut off beef producers from some of the world鈥檚 fastest-growing markets. And overhauling the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) could jeopardize relations with two of American agriculture鈥檚 best trading partners 鈥� Mexico and Canada.
鈥淔or the most part, we鈥檝e been really pleased with Trump鈥檚 policies鈥�. But we are really concerned about trade,鈥� says Brunkow, a board member of the Kansas Farm Bureau who is in Washington this week meeting with his state representatives. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think that Trump understands the yin and yang of trade.鈥�
Many Midwestern Republicans in Congress have also criticized the tariffs.
鈥淓very time you do this, you get a retaliation,鈥� Sen. Pat Roberts (R) of Kansas, who chairs the Senate agriculture committee, recently told reporters. 鈥淎nd agriculture is the No. 1 target. I think this is terribly counterproductive for the ag economy, and I鈥檓 not very happy.鈥�
Invoking national security
In an unusual move, the president justified the tariffs, which are set to take effect on March 23, by invoking a of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The White House argued that steel and aluminum are crucial to producing . It also said that the low prices of imports have weakened the US steel and aluminum industries, which have lost nearly 100,000 US jobs since 2000.
The new tariffs 鈥� 25 percent for imported steel and 10 percent for aluminum 鈥� were welcomed by Trump supporters and even some Democrats in the Rust Belt.
But they couldn鈥檛 have come at a worse time for farmers, who are facing historically low prices for crops and drastically eroded purchasing power.
Kevin Cooksley of Nebraska describes his current situation by offering an anecdote: In 1948, his grandfather could sell a yearling bull and use the money to buy a new pickup truck. Today, Mr. Cooksley says, he would have to sell around 15 bulls to afford such a purchase.
Some have criticized Trump for playing one part of his base off another, choosing manufacturing over agriculture. 鈥淚t is dismaying that the voices of farmers and many other industries were ignored in favor of an industry that is already among the most protected in the country,鈥� said the US Wheat Associates and the National Association of Wheat Growers in a .
Part of the solution may lie in shifting the trade conversation from its current focus on winners and losers, says Darci Vetter, who grew up on a Nebraska farm and served as America鈥檚 chief agricultural negotiator from 2014-17,聽including on the TPP.
鈥�Instead of using those who feel really left behind by the global economy as a sort of rallying point, why haven鈥檛 we used them as a consensus-building point?鈥� she asks in an interview. 鈥淲e haven鈥檛 put our energies into saying what would make our economy more productive, what would make our job situation more stable, especially in those communities that have found that they鈥檝e not been on the winning end of global competition.鈥�
Trade under attack
While there has long been a consensus in America about the importance of trade, that has changed in recent years, according to Brian Kuehl, executive director for Farmers for Free Trade, a bipartisan lobbying group that was formed in response to the 2016 election, in which all the candidates targeted trade.
鈥淚 think from our perspective, alarmingly, [that consensus] has eroded within agriculture 鈥� which is a little bit of a head-scratcher, because if there鈥檚 one industry in the United States that benefits unambiguously from trade, it鈥檚 US agriculture,鈥� said Mr. Kuehl, speaking at a at the University of Nebraska鈥揕incoln.
The US agricultural economy exported $135 billion worth of products in 2016, including roughly half of all rice, wheat, and soybeans produced in the US. Nebraska is one of the most prolific exporters 鈥� No. 1 in beef, and among the top five in corn and soybeans.
鈥淚t鈥檚 very short-sighted to have tariffs,鈥� says Roger Wehrbein, a former legislator and beef producer from eastern Nebraska who has been studying tariffs in the early 1800s. 鈥淭hey have never worked in history.鈥�
The White House has singled out China, but it ranks 4th in US aluminum imports 鈥� and 11th in steel,聽well below Canada and Mexico, though those two countries will be granted temporary exemptions.
Some speculate that Trump is using the tariffs as leverage in NAFTA negotiations. But the danger is that other countries could start relying more on non-US suppliers during this time of uncertainty, and US ag producers will then be hard-put to reenter those markets.
That鈥檚 also a concern with TPP, says Don Hutchens, who worked for 28 years with Nebraska Corn Board to open new markets.
鈥淭hat discussion is going on [between] 11 countries without us,鈥� he says. 鈥淯nfortunately, if you鈥檙e not at the table, you don鈥檛 have a voice鈥�. And if you don鈥檛 have a voice for very long, people kind of forget who you are. And once they realize they can get commodities from other countries at comparable prices and quality, then we鈥檝e really shot ourselves in the foot.鈥�
Take, for example, China鈥檚 imported soybean market, where US market share is already slipping. Brazil has increased its soy exports to China just in the past year. If China retaliates with tariffs against US soybeans, Brazil could expand its production to fill that void, says Steve Wellman, director of Agriculture for Nebraska.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think it would be easy to recuperate from,鈥� says Mr. Wellman, a farmer and former president of the American Soy Association.
For Brunkow, the fifth-generation Kansas farmer, it's not just about preserving his family鈥檚 farm business, but America鈥檚.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 one of the things that鈥檚 always made the US so strong, is we鈥檝e had a great ag foundation,鈥� he says, as he rolls back up his driveway, where lambs are tottering around a paddock with their shaggy moms. 鈥淎nd we need to keep that.鈥�
