In a Trump-country squeaker, some Democrats see a blueprint
| Washington
President Trump鈥檚 surprise victory in the rust belt 鈥� and thus the presidential election 鈥� 16 months ago left many Democrats despondent that they had 鈥渓ost鈥� white working-class America.
But in politics, the world never sits still. Democrat Conor Lamb鈥檚 apparent narrow win Tuesday in a special House election in western Pennsylvania, in a district that Mr. Trump had won by almost 20 points, shows that there鈥檚 a way for the party to win those voters back: Champion their issues.
Workers鈥� rights, wages, and protecting pensions, Social Security, and Medicare 鈥� all played to Mr. Lamb鈥檚 advantage against Republican state Rep. Rick Saccone. And, analysts say, Lamb was 鈥渃onservative enough鈥� on social issues such as guns and abortion to prevail (although, as of this writing, Mr. Saccone had not conceded and the GOP was considering a recount).
鈥淗ere鈥檚 the takeaway: Candidates matter. Campaigns matter,鈥� says Joe DiSarro, chairman of the political science department at Washington & Jefferson College in Washington, Pa., and a member of the Republican State Committee.
鈥淵ou have to be pragmatic,鈥� Mr. DiSarro adds. 鈥淵ou cannot ignore 25 percent of the constituency, which is labor, and expect to win.鈥�
In short, to boost the chances of success, a candidate should 鈥渕atch鈥� the district. Unlike the Republican congressman who resigned from the 18th district House seat last October amid scandal, Saccone has taken conservative positions that labor unions oppose.听
鈥淎 lot of people here are non-ideological,鈥� said former Rep. Melissa Hart (R) of Pennsylvania, who represented a nearby district, over lunch last week in Carnegie, Pa. 鈥淭his district isn鈥檛 hard right.鈥�
Indeed, it is a district of contrasts. The wealthier, more populated, close-in Pittsburgh suburbs went strongly for Lamb, while Saccone prevailed in the further-out, more rural areas.
Long lines were reported in suburban Allegheny County 鈥� in some cases, longer than those in the 2016 general election.
鈥淚鈥檝e never seen so many young voters,鈥� said Lori, a 50-something resident of Upper St. Clair who has lived in the area for more than 20 years. 鈥淯sually I鈥檓 the youngest one in line.鈥�
鈥楢 wake-up call鈥�
National Republicans scrambled to regroup Wednesday, after a long night that ended with Lamb ahead by fewer than 700 votes, or two-tenths of a percent. Behind closed doors, House Speaker Paul Ryan called the Pennsylvania race a 鈥渨ake-up call,鈥� according to sources who were in the room.
Publicly, Mr. Ryan pointed to the Pennsylvania Democrats鈥� ability to hand-pick a 鈥渃onservative鈥� candidate, and avoid a primary dominated by activists who may have selected a more liberal nominee. During the campaign, the GOP had fought hard to turn Lamb into a 鈥淣ancy Pelosi Democrat,鈥� referring to the House minority leader 鈥� but to no avail. Lamb disavowed Ms. Pelosi early on, saying he would not vote for her as leader.
Pennsylvania Republicans, too, selected their candidate in a state party committee vote, but wound up with someone who ended up running what was widely seen as an ineffective campaign. Saccone didn鈥檛 raise much money, forcing outside Republicans to funnel money (more than $10 million) into the race 鈥� money that now can鈥檛 be deployed in the midterms.
Democratic candidates across the country, regardless of ideology, have embraced Lamb, and are fundraising off his success. It doesn鈥檛 hurt that he鈥檚 a young, telegenic former Marine and former federal prosecutor running for office for the first time 鈥� the face of 鈥渃hange.鈥�
Saccone is a generation older, and boasts an impressive career in the Air Force, diplomacy, academia, business, and now four terms in the state legislature. But to some voters, he鈥檚 part of the Harrisburg 鈥渟wamp鈥� 鈥� despite trying to wrap himself in the outsider mantle of Trump.
Six days before the election, Saccone knew he might have a problem.
鈥淭his time of year, half the people I talk to from my district are in Florida right now,鈥� the genial Republican said in an interview at his Greensburg, Pa., field office last week. 鈥淢y gosh, half of them. I鈥檒l say, 鈥楧id you remember to vote absentee?鈥� A lot did, but a lot didn鈥檛.鈥�
Organized labor鈥檚 clout
Aside from Lamb, a big winner coming out of Tuesday is organized labor. In 2016, labor made the same mistake as Hillary Clinton鈥檚 presidential campaign: relying too heavily on big data, and focusing too narrowly on a small universe of undecided voters, instead of doing aggressive, widespread outreach.
This time, in the Pennsylvania race, organized labor was 鈥渇ocused and unified,鈥� says Tim Waters, national political director of the Pittsburgh-based United Steelworkers, which worked alongside carpenters, painters, steamfitters, laborers, and other unions.
鈥淚n the more blue-collar towns, even if Lamb didn鈥檛 win but improved the Democratic vote significantly, it shows that unions have clout,鈥� says Mike Mikus, a Democratic consultant who lives in Pennsylvania鈥檚 18th district.
Then there鈥檚 the suburbs. 鈥淚f the Republicans are going to stop the bleeding in wealthier, highly-educated communities, they鈥檙e going to have to create some distance from Trump,鈥� Mr. Mikus says. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know if they鈥檙e willing.鈥�
For now, Mikus is cautiously optimistic about a Democratic 鈥渨ave鈥� in the midterms.
"It鈥檚 a long way to the election, but all signs point to that,鈥� he says. 鈥淚f I鈥檓 a Republican running in the Philadelphia suburbs, I鈥檓 thinking of a possible graceful exit from the stage so I don鈥檛 get embarrassed in November.鈥�
Staff writer Francine Kiefer contributed to this report.
