海角大神

There鈥檚 no doubt that Democrats are energized for this November鈥檚 midterm elections. But there鈥檚 more at stake than just the partisan control of state and federal offices for the next few years.

Democrats are laying plans for a political reset 鈥� and, they hope, a more level playing field 鈥� with an impact that would reach all the way to 2031.

Leading the charge is a perhaps-unlikely figure: Eric Holder, attorney general under former President Barack Obama. With Mr. Obama鈥檚 help, he鈥檚 tackling the seemingly dry issue of redistricting, the drawing of boundaries for state and federal legislative districts.

In fact, it鈥檚 a hot topic, with the 2020 Census coming soon, followed by redistricting in 2021, and three cases at the Supreme Court. And in Mr. Holder鈥檚 view, the fair formation of voting districts 鈥� and fighting partisan gerrymandering 鈥� goes to the very heart of representative democracy.

鈥淲e have a system now where politicians are picking their voters as opposed to citizens choosing who their representatives are going to be,鈥� Holder said Wednesday, speaking at a press breakfast hosted by 海角大神. 鈥淎nd it鈥檚 a fundamental affront to our system of democracy.鈥�

Holder is chairman of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee (NDRC), a group that launched last year to help elect Democratic state legislators, governors, and other elected officials in key states as redistricting approaches, and to promote reform of the process.

The NDRC has targeted , some of them so-called GOP 鈥渢rifectas鈥� 鈥� states where both legislative chambers and the governor鈥檚 office are controlled by Republicans. It is also trying to prevent others from becoming trifectas.

For Holder, a career lawyer in both the private and public sectors, political activism is a new world. He calls fundraising 鈥渋nteresting,鈥� and leaves it at that. As for whether he might run for office himself 鈥� possibly even president 鈥� he said Wednesday, 鈥淲e鈥檒l see.鈥� He鈥檒l decide by the end of the year, he says.

Holder鈥檚 own high profile, as well as that of his friend Obama, is helping with fundraising. In 2017, the NDRC and its affiliated entities raised $16 million, out of an eventual goal of $30 million. It also contributed $1.2 million toward Democrat Ralph Northam鈥檚 winning gubernatorial race in Virginia last November.

In Virginia state legislative races, the Democrats defied expectations, nearly retaking control of the lower chamber 鈥� an effort Holder helped through fundraising and campaign appearances.

Democrats also scored a victory Monday in Pennsylvania when the US Supreme Court declined to block a state high court ruling that threw out the state鈥檚 congressional map over partisan gerrymandering 鈥� the drawing of political boundaries to favor one party over another. Thirteen of Pennsylvania鈥檚 18 members of Congress are Republican, even though registered Democratic voters in the state outnumber registered Republicans.

Two cases before Supreme Court

Partisan gerrymandering also lies at the heart of two cases before the US Supreme Court 鈥� one brought by Democrats in Wisconsin, the other by Republicans in Maryland. The cases show that partisan gerrymandering is an equal-opportunity practice. How the justices rule could reshape the conduct of US elections.

When asked about Maryland, where it鈥檚 the Democrats who are blamed for engaging in partisan gerrymandering, Holder points out that it鈥檚 just one congressional district at issue.

鈥淵ou could talk about that one district, but we鈥檙e focusing on states that have had substantial gerrymandering problems,鈥� Holder says, naming Texas, Wisconsin, and North Carolina as the most egregious examples.

A lawsuit over North Carolina鈥檚 congressional map is working its way through the courts. And last month, the Supreme Court agreed to hear a Texas case on racial gerrymandering.

Holder says he and Obama plan special outreach to black voters in the run-up to the midterms.

But in general, Democrats can only get so far in creating more favorable maps via redistricting and legal action, experts say. They need to do the shoe-leather work of running for and winning seats in the state legislatures that draw the maps in most states every 10 years.

Belated realization

During Obama鈥檚 presidency, the party let its down-ballot efforts atrophy, and suffered a net loss of nearly 1,000 state legislative seats. The result has been stark: In 2008, Democrats controlled almost 60 percent of state legislative bodies. Today, Republicans have nearly 70 percent.

鈥淒emocrats finally came to the realization that they鈥檙e at a bit of a disadvantage on the map,鈥� says David Wasserman, an expert on redistricting and gerrymandering at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Part of that is attributable to redistricting, he says. In 2010, the last census year and Obama鈥檚 first midterm, the Republicans won big across the board 鈥� a 鈥渟hellacking,鈥� as Obama put it, in the big tea party wave.

But even in a wave election, which the Democrats are hoping for this November, targeting races is key. In 2010, the Republican program REDMAP 鈥� the Redistricting Majority Project 鈥� targeted states where just a few seats could shift the balance of a state legislative chamber to Republican control in time for the 2011 redistricting. That鈥檚 part of what NDRC is doing in 2018 on the Democratic side.

鈥淚mitation is the sincerest form of flattery,鈥� says Matt Walter, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, which developed REDMAP.

Another challenge for Democrats is that their voters are clustered in cities and towns and on the coasts, which hurts their chances of winning power, Mr. Wasserman notes. The trend toward partisan 鈥渟orting鈥� 鈥� people choosing to live near like-minded people 鈥� means there鈥檚 only so much Democrats can do in redrawing district lines.

鈥淭he truth is, gerrymandering compounds sorting,鈥� says Wasserman. 鈥淲hen we鈥檝e had a balkanization or a polarization of voters on the map to the degree we鈥檝e seen in the last 20 years, it becomes easier for partisans drawing the maps to create safely Democratic or safely Republican seats.鈥�

Impact on polarization

Safe seats often lead to the election of members who don鈥檛 feel the need to work across the aisle, contributing to polarization. Elections in such districts are often decided in the primaries, which are dominated by the most hard-line partisan voters.

So the creation of more competitive congressional districts could ease polarization, at least somewhat.

Citizen-led efforts to reform redistricting are under way in , according to the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University. Some involve ballot initiatives, others are trying to pass legislation. But taking redistricting out of the hands of partisans is difficult.

Only four states 颅鈥� Arizona, California, Idaho, and Washington 鈥� use an independent commission to draw congressional districts. , the state legislature draws the boundaries, and in most, the governor must approve the map. Two states, Hawaii and New Jersey, use politician commissions. Seven states have just one member of the House, and thus there鈥檚 no congressional redistricting.

鈥淚 actually think that a movement toward nonpartisan commissions is in some ways the purest way to do [redistricting],鈥� says Holder. 鈥淏ut I deal with reality, and between now and 2021, we're not going to get commissions in all of these states.鈥�