Why the leaders of the Republican establishment are smiling
| Washington
When President Trump ruthlessly denounced his former chief strategist Steve Bannon this week, the political team behind Republican Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell put out a short video tweet of him breaking into a smile.
No comment, just Senator McConnell smiling. The tweet befits the majority leader, a man of few and carefully considered words and sharp political elbows. The video鈥檚 understated emotion also conveys a reality check for mainstream Republicans who might be relishing this political earthquake.
Certainly, the Senate leader is pleased with the banishment of Mr. Bannon, who has been working to elect outsider Republicans to push 鈥渆stablishment鈥� McConnell from his leadership post. Score one for Team Mitch. But Bannon鈥檚 political demise (however long it lasts), comes with a caveat for GOP leaders in Congress.
The drain-the-swamp, anti-establishment movement may have lost a general, but the army of rabble-rousers marches on 鈥� continuing to divide the GOP. That can make governing difficult and is not conducive to fighting the historic electoral backlash that often comes halfway through a president鈥檚 first term, observers say.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think this means that grassroots conservatives will suddenly fall in love with leader McConnell,鈥� says Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections. The president鈥檚 public repudiation of Bannon 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 change the anti-establishment sentiment within part of the Republican Party.鈥�
But Bannon's outcast status could help McConnell strategically, he says. Bannon was a mobilizer of anti-establishment voters, and that function is now greatly diminished by the president鈥檚 turning on him for his comments in the new book 鈥淔ire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House.鈥� It鈥檚 significant, too, that Bannon no longer has the backing of the wealthy Mercer family.
鈥淪teve Bannon planned to mobilize voters and this makes it difficult to do that,鈥� says Mr. Gonzales. 鈥淚f Bannon doesn鈥檛 have the president, and he doesn鈥檛 have the money, I don鈥檛 see how that plan works.鈥� That doesn鈥檛 preclude others, however, from stepping into that role.
Before he left for the Christmas break, McConnell cuttingly referred to Bannon鈥檚 鈥減olitical genius鈥� for 鈥渢hrowing away a seat in the reddest state in America.鈥� He was speaking of the populist鈥檚 backing of Alabama Republican Roy Moore, who was accused of sexual misconduct with teenage girls when he was in his 30s. He lost to Democrat Doug Jones in a special Senate election last month 鈥� costing the GOP a Senate seat.
With a thin 51-to-49 Senate majority to defend, McConnell told reporters that he plans to keep backing candidates who can win general elections. That compares with 2010 and 2012, when the McConnell political machine was 鈥減assive鈥� in the primaries, and Republicans lost four seats because of fringe candidates.
Bannon鈥檚 political demise 鈥渋s a positive development for us, and we can get back to work nominating good, electable candidates who can win in the general election,鈥� Sen. John Cornyn (R) of Texas told reporters on Thursday.
One of those candidates would be former governor and GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who is expected to announce his candidacy to replace the retiring Sen. Orrin Hatch (R) of Utah. Mr. Romney is popular in Utah, and his election would be another win for McConnell. Despite his open criticisms of Trump, Romney is seen as a bridge builder. As Gonzales put it, the former nominee is not interested in coming to Washington 鈥渢o create chaos.鈥�
Key GOP goals attained
As for other GOP 鈥渆stablishment鈥� wins, one could argue that President Trump 鈥� rhetoric and tweets aside (and that鈥檚 a big aside) 鈥� has finished a year of collaboration with the 鈥渟wamp monsters鈥� to reach key Republican goals in Congress: a conservative Supreme Court appointment, deregulation, a big tax cut, and the rollback of a core element of the Affordable Care Act 鈥� the individual mandate to buy health insurance.
After a very rough start with a non-politician president over the failure to repeal Obamacare, McConnell said he now goes into the new year 鈥渨ith a high level of confidence鈥� in the ability to work with the White House and set priorities. He鈥檒l get a crack at that this weekend, when he and other GOP leaders discuss the 2018 elections and agenda at Camp David with the president.
As for the elections, Gonzales says the president can help minimize expected losses if he helps turn out his core voters to support electable candidates 鈥� even if that means voting for more establishment figures.
In Nevada, a Senate race that Democrats believe they can win, Republicans are wondering where the president will come down. In photo-ops, he鈥檚 put incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller close to him 鈥� a visible sign of solidarity, despite the fact that Senator Heller was an avowed anti-Trumper. Yet Bannon has helped Heller鈥檚 primary challenger, Danny Tarkanian.
鈥淏oth [Mr.] Tarkanian and Heller are urgently seeking the president鈥檚 support, and the president really hasn鈥檛 come down on that choice,鈥� says the former Republican governor of Nevada, Robert List. With Bannon in political exile, 鈥渢his could boost Heller鈥檚 standing in the White House, compared to Tarkanian.鈥�
On the other hand, he says, Trump is very popular with Nevada Republicans, and if he came out against Heller, that would be 鈥渉orrible鈥� for the incumbent.
Trump loyalists key to midterms for GOP
In Arizona, another state where Democrats hope they might pick up a seat, Bannon-backed candidate Kelli Ward has distanced herself from the Trump outcast. But Bannon鈥檚 new status makes no difference, says Arizona Republican consultant Constantin Querard.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 see anyone bailing on the president or on the larger struggle because Steve Bannon set himself on fire,鈥� says Mr. Querard.
Candidates like Ms. Ward will still fight the establishment, he says, even if McConnell backs a more mainstream Republican like Arizona Rep. Martha McSally (R). The congresswoman, representing the swing district of Tucson, has not yet said whether she will run to replace retiring Republican Sen. Jeff Flake 鈥� a staunch Trump critic who had been a Bannon target.
For the president, it could be very tough to align with McConnell to support incumbents or back more mainstream candidates when he embodies the anti-establishment wing of the party. He鈥檚 used to firing salvos at his own party, which Gonzales says is harmful.
Republicans who are loyal to the president must turn out in the midterms, he says. 鈥淚f they don鈥檛 鈥� because they don鈥檛 like Republicans on the Hill or think Republicans on the Hill aren鈥檛 doing enough to support the president 鈥� then Republicans will suffer significant losses.鈥�
But if the president can convince his supporters that the Republican majority is important, and that it鈥檚 good for his agenda, 鈥渢hen that could help Republicans avoid a catastrophic election.鈥�
