At last, Trump's ad buys usher in a new stage for 2016 race
Donald Trump鈥檚 first television ad of the general election debuted on Friday, doubling down on the Republican candidate鈥檚 previous admonitions over immigration and terrorism. As Mr. Trump has sought to do throughout his campaign, 鈥淭wo Americas: Immigration鈥� highlights him as the bearer of simple, thorough fixes.
鈥淭errorists and dangerous criminals kept out,鈥� it promises. 鈥淭he border secured. Our families safe. Change that makes America safe again.鈥�
The ad鈥檚 airing is a change of tack for the Republican candidate, whose campaign had previously spent exactly $0 on television spots so far this election season, 鈥� although outside affiliates have run about $12 million worth for him, and $43 million for her. Now, Trump鈥檚 campaign is set to run almost $5 million in ad spots in the battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, and North Carolina, .
鈥淗e seems to be pivoting to a more conventional general-elections strategy,鈥� says Pat Meirick, director of the Political Communication Center at the University of Oklahoma. 鈥淲e鈥檒l see if he can stick to it.鈥�
It could kick off a season of unusually persistent negative ads from both candidates. Some studies show that negative ads often make the viewer think poorly not just of the object of the attack, but of the candidate who delivers it. But both Clinton and Trump are unprecedentedly unpopular, meaning that the campaigns' strategy may aim less at convincing the undecided public of their candidate's merits than of the opponent's flaws.聽
鈥淭here鈥檚 always going to be a mix. You鈥檙e going to try to sell your candidate and their ideas, attack the opposing candidate, and make a comparison on specific points where you鈥檙e strong and they鈥檙e weak,鈥� Dr. Meirick tells 海角大神. 鈥淏ut the mix is going to alter this year.鈥�
鈥淭hese are the two general elections candidates with lowest favorability ratings basically ever, so it鈥檚 going to be easier to attack and have those attacks resonate than to try to build their own favorability.鈥�
Larry Sabato, a professor of politics at the University of Virginia, that the campaigns would be 鈥渟corched-earth.鈥�
鈥淭hey both have 100% name ID and voters have a sense of who they are,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey don't have to advertise in ways that other candidates do. They are not going to have to tell the family story. It's pointless. They will still need negative advertising.鈥�
Some political scientists doubt the value of traditional political ads. found that the effects of a presidential campaign ad disappeared within a few days after its airing. Still, as co-author Lynn Vavreck in June, even the small, rapidly 鈥渄ecaying鈥� influence of ads can matter at the polls 鈥� and affect candidates' viability at large.
鈥淓ven though the effects from an ad imbalance are small and go away fast, candidates cannot allow them to pile up,鈥� wrote Dr. Vavreck, a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles.聽
Trump鈥檚 aversion to ad spending dates back to the inception of his campaign strategy. In February, Politico reported that as far back as 2013, at a meeting with New York political operatives who wanted him to run for governor, Trump , instead outlining an ad-less path to the presidency in 2016 鈥� one predicated on the power of 鈥渆arned media.鈥�
It鈥檚 a model unlikely to be replicated in future campaigns, says Meirick. 鈥淸The race] isn't going very well. Also he鈥檚 a unique candidate and hard to imitate. I don鈥檛 think he鈥檚 really changed the conventional wisdom on how it should be done in the general election.鈥�
