GOP debate: Making his own rules still looks like winning strategy for Trump
Last night鈥檚 Republican debate is likely to be remembered as the first time the Republican establishment finally launched a coordinated attack on Donald Trump, the billionaire businessman who has been dominating the party鈥檚 primary with charisma and a contempt for traditional politics that has outweighed his lack of political experience and questionable conservative credentials.
But for many observers, last night鈥檚 attacks from other prominent GOP candidates 鈥� Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas 鈥� may be a matter of too little, too late.
While his Republican opponents may now be willing to exploit Mr. Trump鈥檚 weaknesses, his commitment to playing the 2016 election by his own rules 鈥� exhibited most recently in a refusal to release his tax returns 鈥� could still be enough to secure him the presidential nomination. Actually becoming the Republican nominee, however, could force him to change his tactics.
In other words, don't be surprised if the Trump Republicans have seen isn't quite the Trump general election voters get. 聽
Republicans have criticized him throughout the primary 鈥� and during last night鈥檚 debate 鈥� for supporting many liberal policies, including government-mandated health care, tax hikes, and Planned Parenthood. He has also several times since announcing his candidacy in June, including on issues such as tax reform and fighting the Islamic State.
鈥淗e has changed his positions on a number of things coming into this election, so why would we expect him to not consider moving around if it suited him going into the general election?鈥� says聽Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.聽
鈥淚 think it鈥檚 a mistake to underestimate his political intelligence,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚f he feels he has to do that to have a better shot at winning, he鈥檒l do it.鈥�
Most obviously,聽Trump could soften some of his more conservative policy positions to appeal to moderate general election voters, Mr. Skelley says.
In the short-term, he is unlikely to do so. As long as the nomination is up for grabs, he will have to defend against the kinds of taunts and attacks brought by Senators Cruz and Rubio Thursday. He鈥檚 done that most effectively by adopting the role of a rebellious upstart fighting for the struggling everyday American.
Rubio struck early Thursday night with attacks on Trump鈥檚 business record, including allegations of hiring foreign workers ahead of Americans and defrauding students at a university bearing his name. Cruz latched onto Trump鈥檚 past support for liberal causes, and mocked his celebrity, saying that while he was fighting immigration reform in Congress, Trump 鈥渨as firing Dennis Rodman on Celebrity Apprentice.鈥�
Trump gave as good as he got, but responded mostly with personal attacks than specific political critiques, calling Rubio a 鈥渃hoke artist鈥� and Cruz a 鈥渓iar鈥� and a 鈥渂asket case.鈥� He also deflected calls from his opponents and moderators to release his tax returns 鈥� a call 聽 by 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, who said there could be a 鈥渂ombshell鈥� in the returns 鈥� saying he is currently being audited and can鈥檛 release them.
He may not have to hold out for long. He has already won three of the four GOP nominating contests, have him leading in three-quarters of the states that will hold primaries and caucuses on 鈥淪uper聽Tuesday鈥� March 1, and The Washington Post鈥檚 that he could wrap up the nomination by mid-March.
鈥淭rump is not yet inevitable but he鈥檚 on a very strong path, and if [the GOP establishment] don鈥檛 figure this out in the next 13 days, Trump is going to be the presidential nominee,鈥� says Ford O鈥機onnell, a Republican strategist.
If he wins the nomination before releasing his tax returns, he鈥檇 be one of the first candidates to do so since the 1970s, , director of the Tax History Project at Tax Analysts.
鈥淭his isn鈥檛 something that popped up in last few years and is easy to dispense with. This is something candidates do,鈥� he adds. 鈥淎t the end of the day the real issue here is about transparency and openness.... It鈥檚 about more than tax returns. It鈥檚 a willingness to be transparent that matters.鈥�
But if Trump is able to win the nomination regardless of the tax returns and other controversies, observers expect Trump to paradoxically gain the united support of Republicans even as he may adopt more centrist policy positions.
鈥淥nce he becomes nominee the [Republican] attacks are going to stop,鈥� says Mr. O鈥機onnell. 鈥淥ne thing he wants to do that [establishment] Republicans want is have a Republican win the White House.鈥�
He adds: 鈥淒o I think he鈥檚 going to change some tactics and positions to win the general election? Yes.鈥�
And changing some policy positions may not even turn off his supporters that much, experts say. Trump鈥檚 campaign has always been more personality-driven than policy-driven, so if specific policies change it may not matter, so long as it鈥檚 him delivering them.
鈥淭rump is not winning because he鈥檚 selling an ideology, he鈥檚 winning because he鈥檚 selling a vision,鈥� says O鈥機onnell.
