海角大神

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz recently came under fire for sending mailers to Iowa residents that warned them of a 鈥渧oting violation.鈥�

鈥淵our individual voting history as well as your neighbors鈥� are public record,鈥� the flier cautioned. 鈥淭heir scores are published below, and many of them will see your score as well. and please encourage your neighbors to caucus as well.鈥�

But while social pressure, however questionably exerted, has been proven to be an effective way to boost voter turnout, it may not be in Mr. Cruz鈥檚 best interest to have maximal participation in the caucus Monday night.

According to Republican strategists, Cruz has a real shot of winning, despite his current second place standing to Donald Trump 鈥� but only if turnout doesn鈥檛 exceed the record in 2012 of 122,000 Republican voters.

Cruz鈥檚 fan base of evangelical conservatives have a long record of voter participation. Fans of Mr. Trump, on the other hand, will likely be young, first-time caucus goers. If he can rally a substantial number of them to go to the polls, the real estate mogul will secure a win.

"The known unknown is ," Cruz spokesman Rick Tyler told Politico鈥檚 Shane Goldmacher, casting doubt on Trump鈥檚 infatuated crowds鈥� likelihood in actually participating in the caucus.

The tipping point, however, is unclear 鈥� experts estimate that it鈥檚 between 135,000 and 150,000 voters. Either way, Cruz supporters are hoping for the number to dip below 135,000.

鈥淚f that number goes well above that, Donald Trump has a shot,鈥� Iowa Rep. Steve King, who has campaigned with Cruz nearly all month, told Mr. Goldmacher. 鈥淚f that number is that or below that, Ted Cruz is in control.鈥�

But it鈥檚 going to be a long shot. Both public polling and internal metrics indicate that Trump has gained the larger electorate.

Last week鈥檚 Monmouth poll projected that if the turnout was 130,000, then with 26 percent each. But the same poll estimated the turnout to be 170,000, in which case Trump could easily prevail. And if up to 200,000 showed up, it would be a landslide.

Historically, the GOP turnout at the caucuses has not topped 20 percent of the state鈥檚 registered Republicans. The process is more strenuous than voting in the general election, and often entails at least an hour of the voter鈥檚 time.

But Trump鈥檚 camp is banking on their supporters.

鈥淭he notion that, you know, you gotta spend 30 minutes in a room and have to write a name down on private piece of paper and turn it in is gonna dissuade these people from Iowa is very disingenuous when they come out every night and they spend hours waiting to come to a Trump event,鈥� Corey Lewandowski, Trump鈥檚 campaign manager, said.

Although there is little doubt that Trump will win the plurality of the votes if the turnout is high enough, Cruz has set up an impressive ground game across the state.

The Cruz campaign says it will be deploying 12,000 volunteers on Monday in about 90 percent of Iowa鈥檚 1,681 precincts. According to campaign manager Jeff Roe, there is exactly 9,131 people torn between Trump and his boss.

鈥淚t's not like kernels in a jar at the state fair,鈥� Mr. Roe said. 鈥淭hese are people who have told us this. This isn't some random data sampling of anonymized information that we gleaned out of some book. These are conversations that we've been having for the entire campaign.鈥�

As reported by The Associated Press, snowfall is expected to coincide with the caucuses Monday night.

As far as Trump is concerned, well, there is no concern.

"You're from Iowa, are you afraid of snow?" he asked supporters at an event last weekend.