Why House Freedom Caucus is so hard to budge
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| Washington
The Republican insurgency that engineered former House Speaker John Boehner鈥檚 resignation and has called for hard-line tactics such as defunding Planned Parenthood is rooted in some of the House鈥檚 most partisan conservative districts.
An analysis of House districts suggests that the Freedom Caucus is not听necessarily听鈥媋 group of rogue hard-liners, but in many ways a natural outgrowth of the character of its members鈥 districts.
In some cases, the districts have been heavily gerrymandered to artificially create a heavily red tinge. In others, the districts are simply the most conservative corners of conservative states.
Either way, the attitudes听of the Freedom Caucus appear to be generally in line with the wishes of the voters who elected them. Most Republican voters favor leaders who 鈥渟tick to their principles even if that makes it more difficult to pass legislation,鈥 according to a recent Associated Press/GfK poll. As a result, any attempt to oust members of the Freedom Caucus or to rein them in will come against hard political realities.
They are, by some measures, the safest members of the House.
In truth,听a growing polarization in American politics, coupled with 鈥媑errymandering on both sides of the aisle鈥,鈥嬏齢as made most districts safe. Only perhaps 60 of 435 House seats will be truly in play when the 2016 general election rolls around, says Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato鈥檚 Crystal Ball, a political website run by the University of Virginia鈥檚 Center for Politics.
That has direct consequences for the tone of Congress and for what's possible legislatively.鈥
An听analysis by the nonpartisan听听in Washington suggests that the relative safety of a district has a correlation with the political behavior of the member. Cook recently used budget-related votes to classify House Republicans into six groups on a spectrum from most centrist (willing to cut deals) to far right (which the report calls the 鈥渃oalition of the unwilling鈥).
Cook found that, in general, as the safety of the district increased, the member was farther to the right on its spectrum. The three furthest-right groups of GOP lawmakers come from districts that, on average, vote 13 or 14 percentage points more Republican than the national norm. Freedom Caucus members are centered heavily in these groups.
Members of the most centrist Republican factions, by contrast, come from districts that edge Republican by smaller margins (five, nine, and 11 points on average).
Though there are only thought to be听about 40 members of the Freedom Caucus (it doesn鈥檛 publicize its membership list), they often essentially have veto power because of the mathematics of House votes.
It takes 218 votes to pass a bill, and Republicans have 247 members. If no Democrats support a bill 鈥 as is often the case with the most partisan legislation 鈥 then the House leadership can鈥檛 pass the bill if it loses more than 29 Republican votes. The Freedom Caucus can deny leadership those crucial votes.
Moreover, the Freedom Caucus is simply the most visible force within a much larger body of hard-right Republicans. The Cook Political Report classifies nearly half of House Republicans as 鈥渟keptics,鈥 鈥渁gitators,鈥 or 鈥渞ebels鈥 when it comes to compromising on things like the budget deal or raising the federal debt limit.
Though the caucus doesn鈥檛 make its membership known, a听听of people widely understood to be members offered a portrait.
Pew found that Freedom Caucus members have been in office for less time than the average lawmaker in Congress (though a number arrived before 2010). Chairing the group is Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, whose district 鈥渋s gerrymandered into听,鈥 writes听.
The South is the group鈥檚 stronghold, as it is for the party at large, but all regions are represented in a membership that includes Scott Garrett of New Jersey, Tim Huelskamp of Kansas, and Ra煤l Labrador of Idaho.
Among the three dozen Freedom Caucus members analyzed by Pew, only a few face competitive general-election races. Representative Garrett in New Jersey is one, as is freshman Rep. Rod Blum of Iowa.
But the caucus is not invincible. There will be challenges to its members in the short and long term, experts say.
For one, the tea party movement, which overlaps with the Freedom Caucus, has seen its support ebb in听, even among many conservative Republicans.
In addition, the well-funded United States Chamber of Commerce is troubled by the rise of Republicans willing to shut down the country and take it to the precipice of fiscal cliffs.
鈥淲hen the tea party was first formed and they had four or five principles of sound economics, reasonable taxation 鈥 I mean who can be opposed to that?鈥 Chamber President Tom Donohue said听at a Monitor-hosted breakfast听for reporters in October. 鈥淏ut it has gone far beyond that to the point that it has lost sight of what the fundamental reality is, and that is to govern in a way to create economic growth and to create jobs.鈥
For now, the Chamber appears to be more focused on preventing new听Freedom Caucus-style Republicans from being elected than on ousting听those in Congress.
鈥淪ome of the tea party members 鈥 I would have to say are fairly entrenched. There is not going to be a viable challenger that is going to succeed against them,鈥 said Bruce Josten, the Chamber鈥檚 executive vice president for government affairs, at the breakfast.
In the longer term, the once-every-10-year redistricting process that led to the gerrymandering could turn against the Freedom Caucus,听as states consider measures designed to separate the process from political machinations.听Florida is a case study to watch. Four of the Freedom Caucus鈥檚 members are from the state (Curt Clawson, Ron Desantis, Bill Posey, and Ted Yoho).
For now, the seats appear quite safe. But the state has changed its constitution to ban politics-driven redistricting. Its current districts are facing a court review.
Demographic changes also could alter the tone of politics in Republican 鈥媎istricts over time.
Millennials have different views on some social issues than their parents, for example.鈥
鈥婣nd in places like Florida, as waves of new residents arrive, it鈥檚 making the state more racially diverse. The Freedom Caucus districts are the most rural ones, so 鈥渋t鈥檒l take a while鈥 for this to alter the politics there, says Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida in Tampa.
But change is coming, she suggests. 鈥淚 personally don't see the Republican Party in Florida going really conservative.鈥