Scott Walker 2016: rock star or villain?
Loading...
| Washington
Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is unique among the Republican hordes running for president: He is deeply polarizing within his own state, and almost certainly the most polarizing .
Most Wisconsin Republicans love him, even if his numbers have declined a bit lately, while most Democrats can鈥檛 stand him. And therein lies both the promise and the peril of Governor Walker鈥檚 presidential candidacy, which launches on Monday.
Walker is a rock star to many national Republicans for pushing an aggressively conservative agenda and for winning statewide election three times in four years in a battleground state with a rich progressive history. In 2012, he became the only governor in US history to survive a recall election, spurred by his successful drive to limit the collective bargaining rights of most state public workers. In short, as far as conservative voters are concerned, Walker has a proven track record both on policy and in electoral politics.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 a really helpful narrative for him on the campaign trail, while he鈥檚 trying to win in these early primary and caucus states,鈥 says Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin in Madison. 鈥淭he fact that he鈥檚 the enemy of the Democrats and of unions is a positive in the nomination race. It鈥檚 made him sort of a hero.鈥
But if Walker wins the Republican nomination, his divisive record is likely to cut differently 鈥 especially if he hopes to attract moderates. He won鈥檛 be able to say, 鈥淚 was a uniter, not a divider,鈥 or that he appealed to minority populations, the way then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush did in 2000 on his way to the presidency.
Walker also won鈥檛 be able to say that he worked effectively across the aisle 鈥 a negative to voters who want Washington to move beyond its hyper-partisan ways. After last November's elections, Americans reported a much stronger appetite for political deal-making than after the 2010 midterms, according to a .听
Walker鈥檚 style 鈥渋s one way to govern, but it鈥檚 not a centrist or encompassing way to govern, and he鈥檒l have to explain himself to the average general election voter in the fall [of 2016], if he gets that far,鈥 says Professor Burden.
Walker wasn't the only force behind the polarization of Wisconsin politics, but he contributed to it, analysts say. "The broad middle that existed back when Tommy Thompson was governor back in the 1980s and '90s, a lot of that has evaporated," Burden says. "People have chosen sides around Walker pretty quickly, really from his first days in office."听
In the state legislative session that just ended, the Republicans 鈥 who control both chambers 鈥 gave Walker 鈥渁 going-away bag full of goodies to sell on the campaign trail,鈥 as put it. He won a ban on nearly all abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy, expansion of school vouchers, drug testing for people on public assistance, an end to the state's "living wage" law, big funding cuts to the University of Wisconsin, and an end to job security for tenured faculty. Earlier this year, he signed two bills expanding gun rights, and in another blow to unions, legislation making Wisconsin a so-called 鈥渞ight to work state.鈥
The question, though, is how Walker will be perceived on the national stage. Most voters don鈥檛 pay attention to Wisconsin politics, and the fact that he鈥檚 a divisive figure at home doesn鈥檛 automatically translate nationally.听
The polarization of Wisconsin politics 鈥渨as formed in the crucible of Act 10 and the demonstrations over that,鈥 says Charles Franklin, pollster at Marquette University Law School in Milwaukee, referring to the measure that pared back collective bargaining rights. 鈥淭he country is not going to learn about Scott Walker in that same context.鈥
The issues of the 2016 election will center on the national economy, security, immigration, and health care. Over time, as he has prepared to run for president, Walker has marched to the right. In March, he acknowledged that he had changed his mind on immigration, and now opposed a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants as part of comprehensive reform; in 2013, he had favored a long-term path to citizenship. And he reversed course on 鈥渞ight to work鈥; in 2012, he "no interest in a right-to-work law in this state."
Voters also will base their assessments of Walker on perceptions of character and leadership. On the latter point, Walker has his argument down. He burst into the top tier of likely Republican presidential candidates in January, in a fiery speech touting his governing record at the Iowa Freedom Summit in Des Moines.
鈥淲e weren鈥檛 afraid to go big or go bold,鈥 Walker told the crowd, to .
That message 鈥渟ells really well with Republican activists,鈥 says Burden. 鈥淭hey like to see that he鈥檚 done something, in contrast to, say, the senators who are running against him. He鈥檚 been implicitly picking on them, saying, 鈥楾hese are people from Washington who talk a lot, and I鈥檝e actually gone out and done things. Balanced budgets, changed gun laws, changed tax rates鈥' "
Walker鈥檚 biggest liability, perhaps, is the ongoing into whether a conservative group improperly coordinated with Walker鈥檚 2012 recall campaign. Critics also talk about sluggish job growth in Wisconsin; the state is 35th out of 50. But Walker counters with a state unemployment rate (4.6 percent in May) that鈥檚 below the national average (5.5 percent in May).听
Walker has been working on getting up to speed for his debut as a national candidate.听Earlier in the year, he struggled in public to answer questions about his views 鈥 on evolution, on Ukraine, on the Islamic State 鈥 earning embarrassing . As other candidates were announcing their campaigns and undertaking heavy public schedules, Walker was finishing his legislative session and studying up on domestic and foreign policy.
At home, his overall approval rating has dipped in recent months, going from 49 percent last October to 41 percent in April, according to the latest . Among Republicans, he dropped 8 percentage points, into the high 80s, which is still quite high. Approval among Democrats is below 10 percent.
Still, Walker starts his campaign with a deep reserve of goodwill among the key segments of the GOP, both in Wisconsin and nationally: the 鈥渆stablishment,鈥 social conservatives (he鈥檚 the son of a Baptist preacher), tea party conservatives, and libertarians. Walker leads polls of Republicans in neighboring Iowa, averaging almost 18 percent in a field of 16 candidates, according to the RealClearPolitics .
Now the heat is on. Expectations are high, and if he loses the Iowa caucuses in February, the first nominating contest, he鈥檒l look defeated.
Walker 鈥渉as to win Iowa,鈥 says Republican strategist Ford O鈥機onnell. 鈥淚t all comes down to Iowa.鈥
Walker鈥檚 top competitors for the nomination are the two Floridians, former Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio. 鈥淗is biggest problems are Bush鈥檚 money and Rubio鈥檚 compelling narrative,鈥 says Mr. O鈥機onnell.
On Thursday, Team Bush announced an unprecedented fundraising haul of $114 million for the second quarter of 2015, between his campaign and his super-political action committee.The challenge from Senator Rubio comes thanks to his back story as the son of Cuban immigrants, and his appeal to Latino voters in the general election.
Walker鈥檚 narrative of 鈥渂old action鈥 also brings with it a geographic appeal 鈥 its center in the American heartland, and the argument of relatability.听
Walker can say, 鈥淚鈥檓 an average Joe, I鈥檓 not Mitt Romney, I鈥檓 not ultra-rich, I can identify with people,鈥 says Professor Franklin.
The fact that Walker is another element of his biography that could make him relatable to some voters, but could hurt with others.
Another Midwest Republican governor, John Kasich of Ohio, gets in July 21, bringing the field up to 16 official candidates. The first debate is Aug. 6. The race for 2016 is still just starting.听